Prediction #2: Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010

Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010, and more will consider shutting down or transitioning to online-only, despite a (slower than we'd like) recovering economy. Although the number of magazines that shut down peaked in 2008, at 525, last year said goodbye to 360 magazines, including some major magazines like Gourmet, Metropolitan Home, Fortune Small Business. Last year also saw the deaths of major daily newspapers like the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer as well as dozens of smaller papers. Large newspaper companies also announced bankruptcies last year, and we expect more closings in 2010. There is some good news: advertising pages may be increasing, according to Q1 projections, but only by 3 percent. However, print subscriptions continue to decline, and we expect newsroom layoffs to continue. The lesson: magazines from big publishing companies and significant circulations were not immune. Already, BusinessWeek SmallBiz announced (via postcard) that its Dec. 09/Jan. 10 issue was its last.

Are Shelter Books Dead -- Or merely the new bridal magazines?

With the news that Hachette Filipacchi Media is shuttering Metropolitan Home magazine, we've come to a turning point, I think, in what used to be known as the "shelter books" -- magazines focusing on interior design for the home.

In an environment where home foreclosures continue to mount up, the potential readership for decorating tips has other things on their mind.

In fact, a lot of people seem to renovate these days only to spruce up their homes to make them more marketable. I know someone who had put off updating their kitchen for year because they thought they might move, and now are moving -- but not before investing $10,000 to update their kitchen appliances. And that's even though they know any buyer will rip out those improvements to more completely renovate the kitchen. (My friend is also lamenting that they didn't spend the money years ago to enjoy the new appliances.)

I'm not saying that's the only reason or only time these days that people are renovating or updating their homes. But it does seem true when I look around at friends and colleagues.

The advertisers and publishers seem to recognize that fact. After all, they've pulled the plug on at least six other shelter pubs: nStyle Home, Cottage Living, Blueprint, Country Home, O at Home and Domino.

True, there are still a lot of other shelter pubs out there, like Better Homes & Gardens and Elle Decor.

But I think people interested in interior design magazines may be shifting their reading habits, and won't be interesting in annual subscriptions to those magazines. Like readers of bridal magazines, these will be interested buyers, looking for tips and ideas before they actually decide to update the look of their homes. They'll buy a couple of issues, and be done.

Besides, they can always look online at the weekly home sections still published by many newspapers. Of course, the graphics on newsprint aren't as impressive on high glossy magazine stock, but it's more convenient.

And while our clients usually are not interested in shelter pubs, one reason I'm interested in this change is that the high resolution graphics necessary for shelter pubs was one reason I thought they -- along with bridal and high-end travel magazines -- would survive without having to shift to an online-only business model. Because the graphics are so important to the end product.

For the moment, it seems only bridal and high-end travel magazines may be able to resist going online only.