Track Record for Predictions for 2013, Part II

Here's our second part of our report card for the predictions for 2013: 

• The Battle for the Living Room.  We were right that there was a lot of coverage about the battle for the living room but we missed one part of the story. There was a lot of coverage about TVs in the first half of 2013 but in the last quarter, the battle hasn’t been between high def and ultra high def TVs. It’s been about Microsoft’s Xbox One vs. Sony’s PS4 (that’s PlayStation4 for those of you older than 35). Because we missed the gaming console part of the story, we’ll take points off our score. Grade: B+.
• Battle between different streaming services and cable’s embrace of streaming.  This got a lot of coverage but not in terms of specific comparisons across offerings and fee structures from Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu. Instead, the coverage focused on new original programming being developed by some of the streaming services, and the implications as those services evolve to better compete against cable channels like HBO and Showtime.  We expect more coverage in 2014 about streaming vs. cable as well as Netflex vs. Amazon Prime and cord-cutting. Grade: A.
• The battle among huge companies. Apple v. Google v. Samsung and Microsoft. Oracle v. Everyone Else. This is one of the great memes of tech journalism this decade. Grade: A.
• The Battle for Map Supremacy: Apple v. Google v. Nokia v. Microsoft v., Amazon. This got some coverage -- including a recent cover story in the New York Times Magazine section, Google’s Road Map to Global Domination -- but we overstated this. Grade: C+.
• Apple TV set and the future of TV. People may spend much time actually watching a TV but there continues to be interest in how Apple may revolutionize our TV-watching experience. Whatever plans Apple may have will be the continued focus of speculation in 2014. Grade: A.
• Automated home and smart appliances.  Media coverage started strong in the first half but dropped in the second half. Interesting that some trends are not strong enough to maintain buzz for an entire 12 months. This could be the result of a CES bump where some topics get off to a strong jump in January but fade when there’s not a lot of new products available. Which means, there could be more interest in smart appliances after CES 2014. Grade: B.
• 3D printers: Not yet ready for prime time. We said “2013 will be the year in which the media proclaims the arrival of 3D printers,” and that was on target. Still not seeing them widely adopted yet but we expect continued coverage about the implications for manufacturing. Grade: A.

We'll post more tomorrow and you can check out Part I here. 

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part III

Here are some trends dealing with appliances in 2013:

·         Apple TV set and the future of TV. We could have lumped this one in either the Battle for the Living Room or streaming video content. However, given everyone's fascination with what Apple is doing, we expect to see continued speculation of how Apple plans to disrupt the TV-viewing experience through plans for a possible Apple TV set, and the implications from a programming and TV set-manufacturing perspective. Despite Apple’s persistent denials that it is not developing its own TV set, we expect to see more articles about Apple's effort into redesigning a TV set for how we watch today. 

·         Automated home and smart appliances.  As smart appliances and devices like Internet-connected refrigerators and ovens become available, expect more media coverage about them. A problem for smart appliance manufacturers is that people tend to hold onto refrigerators for a long time so what seems smart today won’t feel so smart a decade from now. Appliance makers will need to find ways to make the displays and the software running the smart appliances to be easily upgradeable. Another challenge: The lack of interoperability – the ability for one smart device to be able to communicate effectively with another smart appliance. If you buy one brand of toaster, will it be able to “talk” with your refrigerator? If they can’t, you basically have a Kitchen of Babel. Appliance manufacturers will need to make sure their appliances can talk to each other (and not just to the apps on your smartphone).

·         3D printers: Not yet ready for prime time. 2013 will be the year in which the media proclaims the arrival of 3D printers -- which can make three-dimensional solid copies from an original item. The technology enabling 3D printers has matured significantly but it still seems somewhat of an early adopter item. If people have problems with paper jams in regular printers, just imagine the potential problems with 3D printers. We think that obstacles to purchasing 3D printers, for most households, include limited use for most households, the learning curve on how to use it, costs of the necessary supplies to create 3D replicas, and the need for technical support. We do expect that media and blogger coverage of 3D printers will focus on how cool it is, and that the business press will look at the implications for U.S. manufacturing.

 
Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I or Part II.