Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part I

We've been issuing annual predictions going back a decade now. Our goal is to help our clients more effectively understand and engage on topics of interest for social media.

We will be rolling out our 2012 list of trends over the next two weeks. Here are the first few:

1. The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012. You almost never have downtime anymore, and people are beginning to notice that’s not all good.  Sure, if you are waiting in line at the post office or bank (something today’s kindergarteners won’t do by the time they hit college), you’ll be able to check email, play an app, text your friend, or make a call. But this lack of downtime may negatively impact our ability to concentrate and avoid distractions at work and at home. The recognition that we actually need to disconnect, that we need downtime, is likely to generate coverage this year. Already a handful of companies have limited email, both during the day and after hours – and we think more will join those ranks. We also think the concept of going on vacation without access to email or cell will become more of a status symbol because it now takes a lot of money to disconnect yourself from your regular workday.
2. We may be immersed in social media, but we’ll spend less time with actual people.
    So many people use social media sites – from Facebook, Google+, Twitter and LinkedIn, to Pinterest and Quora and more -- that people have less time to spend with their friends and family. We’re not sure if this will get much media coverage, but we’ve seen some books addressing the topic (like last year’s “Alone Together” by MIT Professor Sherry Turkle). We expect more attention will be paid as kids in schools face a new way to feel alienated.
3. Value will be king in 2012. Upscale consumers, suffering from frugal fatigue, have started spending again.  But for the 99% of us -- a phrase that will be popular throughout 2012, due to the presidential election -- will continue to look for value. That bodes well for Groupon, LivingSocial and other sites offering discounts. However, some companies have complained that they’ve lost money on their promotions through Groupon, so a question in 2012 could well be: “Do group discounts actually generate a return for companies?” Expect two other questions this year: “Will Groupon turn out to be a good investment since its Nov. 2011 IPO at $20?” and “How many e-coupon sites do consumers want or need?”

Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for additional predictions.

Tips on Using LinkedIn

Boston Globe's Scott Kirsner wrote a very useful article, "Make better introductions: LinkedIn can be a valuable networking tool - but are you maximizing its potential?" on using LinkedIn.

Some of the advice includes:

• Spell your name wrong. That's important if you have a name, like mine, that's often misspelled. By including the commonly misspelled variation in your profile, you can help people find you.
• Write a compelling headline.
• List everything. Because it enables more people to be able to link to you.

Check out the article.

Do You Suffer from SNF -- Social Networking Fatigue (NSF)?

Social networking will continue to grow in 2009, but expect a social networking backlash to start.

After all, with Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, and Plaxo, how many ways do we need to connect to the same people?

We’re feeling social networking fatigue (SNF) based on getting contacts on two different sites from someone we don’t know.

Meanwhile, the challenge for some sites, like Twitter and Plaxo, is that they have yet to monetize their communities, user base, etc.

How long can Twitter survive without generating a revenue stream? The backlash will also affect sites designed to help with lead generation but contain wrong information. There are a number of such sites like Spoke.com, Lead411, JigSaw.com. Spoke.com included a number of people as Birnbach employees who actually work at an acquired client of ours; that’s the most egregious, but most of these sites contain misinformation. (Since they’re for lead gen, we have not corrected most of the mistakes we’ve found.)

How Many Social Networking Sites Can One Person Belong To?

If I were to keep up with all the social networking sites out there -- aside from Facebook, LinkedIn, Plaxo & Twitter, I might never get any work done.

A former colleague told me she uses LinkedIn on a daily basis -- she told me this using LinkedIn's email system -- but then told me that was the case when she was looking (and found) a new job. I've been on the site, and it's been helpful tracking down former colleagues just as Facebook has been useful tracking down former classmates.

And that's been nice, catching up with old friends.

But LinkedIn is often cited by reporters as a business-oriented site. I see it as a networking/connecting site, and I do know of some people who use it as part of their job search. But I have not seen any business from it. The same is true for Facebook, Plaxo and Twitter -- and would be, too, if I went to MySpace.

Now there are industry-specific social networking sites, like PR OpenMic. I checked it out, and it seems to be mostly college students and some practitioners. And while I found it interesting to see how some of them view social media since I figure they should be closer to it then I am, I kept thinking: do I need another social media site to check out?

The answer is probably not.

As for the mainstream social networks, I'm not knocking the ability to reconnect with old friends. But the media has often reported on the above sites as being useful for business. I just don't see it, and have not experienced it.

I see them as nice to-do's. As long as you don't expect to generate business leads from them, you won't be disappointed.

To Twitter or Not to Twitter

Last month, the Boston Business Journal (BBJ) ran an article, "Twitter away: PR pros mix business and pleasure."

I understand the need to embrace Web 2.0 and social media as a way to understand and evaluate it -- hence, as one initiative, this blog.

But I haven't seen a lot of business from the dozens of social networking communities to which I belong or have monitored (LinkedIn, Facebook, Plaxo, MySpace, etc.) There's a point at which those sites have been mildly fun -- Facebook's quizzes -- and mildly useful in finding or keeping track of former classmates and colleagues. And then it doesn't take much more for the time invested in these sites for me to feel like I must have something better to do. Like managing some of the back office work I should be doing.

For the time being, I'm not going to Twitter more time away. But I'd be interested to hear what the point of Twitter is from a business perspective.