Another Wall St. Journal Article Validates Cyberattack Prediction

This is a trend prediction we hate to be right about, but in our set of predictions published on Feb. 2, 2012, "Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media," we included:

"Cyberwarfare: the act of attacking one’s enemies by hacking. It’s happening on both sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the US media has reported that China is using cyberwarfare against the US, including corporate espionage, so expect it to spread elsewhere."

Unfortunately, we've seen a spate of articles covering cyberwarfare, including this one from the Wall St. Journal (but the story appeared elsewhere, too): "Iran Blamed for Cyberattacks; U.S. Officials Say Iranian Hackers Behind Electronic Assaults on U.S. Banks, Foreign Energy Firms."

Here's the New York Times' take: "U.S. Suspects Iran Was Behind a Wave of

Cyberattacks: Intelligence officials believe network attacks thatcrippled computers across the Saudi oil industry and breached Americanfinancial institutions originated in Iran."

We can add Iran to the list of countries conducting cyberwarfare.

We think coverage of cyberattacks will continue because the number of cyberattacks will continue.

Fortune Validates

Back in Feb., we issued the prediction that focus on mobile payments would increase.

Last month, Fortune joined the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and other top-tier media in validating our prediction. Check out the cover story: "The Death of Cash: Tech giants - and startups like Square - want you to use your phone to pay for everything from gum to train rides. Here's how they plan to achieve cash-free nirvana."

We predicted that e-wallets would be mainstream in five years but we may move that up to four years, based on the kind of media coverage we've been seeing.

New York Times Continues to Validate Our Prediction about Cyberwarfare

In addition to reporting on privacy issues, as we predicted, The New York Times has also been reporting on cybercrime -- which we also predicted (see original column here) as one of the top ongoing stories the media will cover in 2012. The Times had already validated our predictions with several articles on the topic (see here), but over the past few days, the Times has written at least three articles on cybercrime and cyberwarfare:

• Asleep at the Laptop by Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York.who frames the discussion as "Cybergeddon; the next Pearl Harbor; one of the greatest existential threats facing the United States. With increasing frequency, these are the grave terms officials invoke about the menace of cybercrime — and they’re not understating the threat....With all the attention paid to the so-called fiscal cliff approaching at year’s end, it is equally important to ask whether collective inaction has us simultaneously barreling toward a cybercliff of equal or greater height."
•  Expert Issues a Cyberwar Warning about the implications the Flame virus afflicting computers in Iran and the Middle East.
• Mutually Assured Cyberdestruction? which reports on a (now not) secret program called “Olympic Games.” Apparently dating from "the last years of the George W. Bush administration, the United States has mounted repeated attacks with the most sophisticated cyberweapons ever developed. ...
  But precisely because the United States refuses to talk about its new cyberarsenal, there has never been a real debate in the United States about when and how to use cyberweapons."

We expect to see more articles about cyberwarfare, including attacks on the U.S. from China and originating from the U.S. on Iran and elsewhere.

Wall St. Journal Nominates "Innovation" as Most Overused Word in 2012

Each year, we make predictions as to what may be the most overused phrase in 2012. In April, we nominated the word "pivot," used to indicate when a business (generally always a startup) changes its focus, its technology, its strategy, etc. to find a new business model.

Pivot is still getting a lot of ink (or, more accurately: pixels), and is being used in a lot of meetings we've been attending.

However, the Wall St. Journal has nominated another word as most overused word or phrase for 2012: Innovation. The article, "You Call That Innovation?" makes the case that "Companies Love to Say They Innovate, but the Term Has Begun to Lose Meaning." saying:

"Businesses throw around the term to show they're on the cutting edge of everything from technology and medicine to snacks and cosmetics. Companies are touting chief innovation officers, innovation teams, innovation strategies and even innovation days.

"But that doesn't mean the companies are actually doing any innovating. Instead they are using the word to convey monumental change when the progress they're describing is quite ordinary.

Even Clayton Christensen, a professor at Harvard Business School and the author of the 1997 book, "The Innovator's Dilemma," thinks companies are overusing the term: "Most companies say they're innovative in the hope they can somehow con investors into thinking there is growth when there isn't."

The Journal has compiled good proof points to support its claim: 

• "A search of annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows companies mentioned some form of the word "innovation" 33,528 times last year, which was a 64% increase from five years before that."
• "More than 250 books with "innovation" in the title have been published in the last three months, most of them dealing with business, according to a search of Amazon.com."

Check out the article "You Call That Innovation?"because it also includes more proof points about the overuse of "innovation." We've already advised clients to reduce their reliance on the word.

Entrepreneur Validates "Lean In" in Jargon of the Month

Back in January, we predicted that "lean-back/lean forward" might be one of the most overused phrases this year.  

As background, Lean-back activities are those in which users passively access content, like watching TV. Lean-forward activities are those in which the user is actively engaged in consuming content, as when they’re searching for content on the Internet or via an app. 

The May issue of Entrepreneur, not yet available online, validated that prediction with its "Jargon of the Month" for May: Lean In. Ok, so it's not lean-back, but, according to Entrepreneur, "Lean in" can be used to define "the act of making yourself appear engaged and interested when the person addressing you bores you to the point of exhaustion."


Not really so far off, actually. I'll give this a B in our end-of-year wrap up on how we did with our predictions.

New York Times Validates Cashless Wallet Prediction

Back in Feb., we issued the prediction that focus on mobile payments would increase, saying:

Spearheaded by Google Wallet, Visa's V.me, and Verizon, 2012 looks to be a big year for mobile commerce. Using your smartphone to make purchases will not attract most Americans this year, but a growing part of the population will love the convenience of not having to find an ATM or not paying fees to use another bank system’s ATM. You can delay the day our society becomes a cashless one, but eventually going cash free will be mainstream by the end of the decade.

Last month, the Wall St. Journal article validated our prediction in an article entitled, "Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic." The big issues for adoption by retailers are potential security and privacy issues.

Yesterday, the New York Times validated our prediction, too, in an article entitled, "Many Competing Paths on the Road to the Phone Wallet." According to the Times, "The idea of using a smartphone as a wallet has been slow to catch on in the United States," and that "a big part of the problem has been that most stores do not have the proper physical equipment to allow customers to pay by tapping their phone."

That will change, the Times noted, due to "heavy pressure to upgrade their payment terminals to accept smart cards. Over the past few months, Visa, Discover and MasterCard have said that merchants that cannot accept these cards will be liable for any losses owing to fraud."

Check out the rest of the article for more details. But what that means is that the adoption trend for mobile payments will increase significantly.  Some analysts and industry players believe that mobile payments -- powered by near-field communications (a technology standard to connect devices like smartphones by bringing them into close proximity with other devices) -- will be mainstream in five years.

That's five years ahead of our prediction, but that's okay with us.

Two Additional Predictions for 2012

We typically issue predictions once a year. You can check out our predictions for 2012 starting Jan. 30, 2012 here.


But this year, we'd like to add two other trends we did not mention.

The first belongs with our predictions of Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media, posted Feb. 2nd. In addition to stories about cybercrime and cyberespionage originating in China, we want to add self-driving cars. There's already been some coverage, including a Wired cover story -- and we think the media will continue to cover the concept of self-driving cars, always highlighting Google. Key issues in all coverage about self-driving cars is not only going to be about the gee-whiz aspect but about the legal issues regarding any accidents from those self-driving machines. Security from being hacked will be another theme as well as the question of whether self-driving cars make cars more of a commodity and the potential impact on high-end cars once people are not directly connected to "the romance of the road."


Having grown up in Manhattan, where my formative auto experiences involved taxis, I don't truly understand "the romance of the road" aspect.


The other new addition we'd like to make to what may be the most overused phrase in 2012 could be -- we want to nominate the word "pivot," used to indicate when a business (generally always a startup) changes its focus, its technology, its strategy, etc. to find a new business model. Companies that pivot typically have their backs up against the wall, about to fail before finding a new path that leads them to success (though not always to profitability yet).

Let us know if there are other words you think are overused.

NY Times' David Pogue Validates Our Ultrabook Predictions

One of our predictions this year was that "the most overused phrase in 2012 could be: lean-back/lean-forward user experiences."

So far, we've jumped the gun on that one. (As background, lean-back activities are those in which users passively access content, like watching TV. Lean-forward activities are those in which the user is actively engaged in consuming content, as when they’re searching for content on the Internet or via an app.)

But we also said, "Also expect to hear a lot of about ultrabooks – PCs as sleek and thin as Macbooks."

And in today's New York Times, consumer product reviewer David Pogue, reviewed several new ultrabooks. "So what's an ultrabook?" Pogue asks. "It's a MacBook Air that runs Windows," he answered.  He's bullish about ultrabooks: "If you wait, more goodness is coming."

Bloomberg BusinessWeek Validates Post-PC Prediction

For the second consecutive week, Bloomberg BusinessWeek validates one of our predictions for 2012. Last week's cover story validated our prediction of Chinese corporate espionage as an important story the media would cover in 2012.

This week's "Opening Remarks" column, entitled "Why the iPad's success may spell the end of the computer industry as we know it" (the online version is called, "IPad: The PC Killer") validates the Post-PC prediction, in which we said:

We expect that Post-PC will be a term we’ll hear a lot in 2012, given the exploding popularity of tablets, especially iPads. 

Bloomberg BusinessWeek joins the New York Times (see yesterday's post).

NY Times Validates Our Post-PC Prediction

As part of the coverage around the latest version of the iPad, there have a number of articles looking at the decline of the desktop.  One such article was in the New York Times, As New iPad Debut Nears, Some See Decline of PCs.

In our predictions this year, issued Jan. 31, 2012, we wrote:

Also expect to hear a lot of about ultrabooks – PCs as sleek and thin as Macbooks. We expect that Post-PC will be a term we’ll hear a lot in 2012, given the exploding popularity of tablets, especially iPads. 

 By the way, we don't expect to see laptops or desktops to disappear anytime soon. (Well, not laptops.) There's still a need for PCs and iMacs, for that matter.

But we do expect to hear, read and see Post-PC used more often this year and in the future.

Bloomberg Business Cover Story on Chinese Espionage Validates Our Predictions

In our prediction about ongoing story angles that we expect to generate coverage this year (available here), we said one to watch is:

The rising threat of Chinese businesses, the Chinese economy and the Chinese military.

In the current cover story of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Michael Riley and Ashlee Vance write, "Inside the Chinese Boom in Corporate Espionage," a detailed analysis of what they call "The Great Brain Robbery." There are at least 20 examples of corporate espionage conducted by the Chinese -- with support from China's intelligence agencies. In fact, the article quotes the director of the NSA as saying, "It's the greatest transfer of wealth in history."

It's a fascinating, frustrating look at the costs and risks of doing business in China. What's amazing is that the US firms cited are major corporations like Apple, Boeing, Dow Chemical, DuPont, Ford, GM, Goodyear, Motorola, Northrup -- companies that you would have expected to be able to through resources enough to prevent themselves from being victimized.

We think this will continue to be a story covered by the media -- but, strangely enough since it's an economic issue, not a campaign issue during the remainder of the GOP primary season.  (We say that because the cover story did not generate the buzz we would have expected.)  How the country deals with China on economic, political and military issues will become even more important through the rest of the decade, and having a thought-out well-crafted policy will be important. So I wonder why that's not a campaign issue yet.

Actually, after posting this, I found an article from today's Times, "The Electoral Math of Romney's Stance on Trade with China," which provides context to how trade issues with China are being discussed. Worth reading.

Of course, that may change in the fall.

What do you think? Let us know.

WSJ Validates our Cashless Payments Prediction

One of our predictions this year is that mobile payments will increase, and that "spearheaded by Google Wallet, Visa's V.me, and Verizon, 2012 looks to be a big year for mobile commerce."

Perhaps Wal-Mart and Target read our predictions published in Feb., but a Wall St. Journal article reported, "Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic," The big issues for adoption by retailers are potential security and privacy issues.

So looks like another point on the Trend-Validation Board for us.

More Validation of our Cutting the Cord Prediction

Lots of stories appearing in print and online are validating our "Cutting the Cable" prediction that people are moving away from cable.

Here are some recent validation:

• WSJ: "Glenn Beck Rallies Troops for Revolution Against TV": I didn't expect to agree with Glenn, but he's right. People are now actively looking for alternatives to traditional TV networks that they can access from their PCs, tablets and smartphones.
• WSJ: "Plans for 'TV Everywhere' Bog Down in Tangled Pacts": provides insights how "TV Everywhere" is more at the concept stage, and has not yet reached the service phase. This article makes the point that it's not so much a technology issue that's holding back "TV Everywhere," as much as it is the legal/licensing issues that are gumming the works.
• NYTimes: "Netflix Said to Be Aiming for a Cable Partnership": Again, it's not the technology, it's the licensing.
• WSJ: "The New Cable-TV Guy: Intel; Chip Maker Working on a Web-Based Video Service to Compete With Cable, Satellite Providers": Intel wants to get in the video streaming game (can't really call it just TV anymore).
•  NYTimes: "DVRs and Streaming Prompt a Shift in the Top-Rated TV Shows": Oh yeah, DVRs are not dead. Yet. But the shift in viewing habits is already here -- the tech and legal solutions have to catch up to demand, in our opinion.

In going through some clips, we realized there's one story prediction we did not make -- but should have. We think that the car of the future will continue to be a big ongoing story trend. The car of the future includes all sorts of built-in technology like web access, iPod/iPhone/iPad interfaces, etc. as well as the big concept: the driverless car. Google and others have already demonstrated driverless cars. But there are legal and security issues involved before driverless cars go mainstream.  (Based on the people I see driving around me, personally, I can't wait for driverless cars -- they've got to be safer!)

NY Times Continues to Validate Our Cutting the Cord Prediction

Last month, the Wall St. Journal validated our our Cutting the Cable prediction. This week, the New York Times climbed on board. Nick Bilton's Disruptions: TV Makers Ignore Apps at Their Own Peril makes the point that he prefers watching programs on his iPhone or iPad because:

"The idea of turning it on, powering up the external speakers, starting the Apple TV or Xbox, telling the TV which input does what, or flicking through some traditional TV channels, makes me anxious. It’s the same feeling I get when I think about sifting through a pile of bills."

So what does Bilton see as the problem?

What is broken is the entire television experience. I have two remote controls for the TV and speakers with more than 40 buttons each. (I don’t have cable or TiVo; if I did, I’d have even more buttons to worry about.)

Instead, Bilton prefers his iPhone over his TV because of the way it allows him to consume content -- and because he can also create content, post information and comments and share content all on the same device. 

He's really talking about cutting the cable. We think people will want to access movies at home on big screens -- so that the whole family can watch. But we also continue to believe that people will want to watch wherever they are and on whatever device they have. That means watching video on a smartphone while standing in the security line at the airport; watching on a tablet when they get a seat at the gate or when they're actually on the plane; and watching when they get home or to the hotel room -- each time, picking up where they left off. The device doesn't matter, really. We just want optimized access wherever, whenever.

Cable, as it currently operates, doesn't make sense in that context.  They need to find a way to stream the content we each want to all our devices -- and I know there are technical, licensing and security issues to be solved. But that is the future, and by 2022, the concept of cable will seem as remote as dial-up does to my kids.

More Validation from WSJ about Our Cybersecurity

In our prediction about ongoing story angles that we expect to generate coverage this year (available here), we said two to watch are:

• Net-specific issues such as net neutrality (the need to prevent broadband providers from blocking access to competitors), the e-tax loophole (in which e-retailers don’t require customers to pay sales tax, which gives Amazon and others an advantage over bricks-and-mortar retailers that do charge customers sales tax), and anti-piracy legislation (Stop Online Piracy Act aka SOPA and Protect Intellectual Property Act aka PIPA).
• The rising threat of Chinese businesses, the Chinese economy and the Chinese military. 

Recently, the New York Times validated the net-specific issues by continuing to report on security/privacy bills validating our prediction about ongoing stories -- you can check out the links here. 

Today, the Wall St. Journal reported on two of those trends:

•  Cybersecurity Bills Duel Over Rules for Firms
•  FBI Traces Trail of Spy Ring to China

The latter story focuses on the threat to US businesses from Chinese businesses.


Here's another WSJ article I momentarily overlooked: Cybersecurity 2.0: Encouraging companies and intelligence agencies to share information freely is a good first step -- which touches on several of the points we made in our predictions about security.


Let us know if there are trends you think we missed.

WSJ validates another of our predictions

The Wall St. Journal validates our Cutting the Cable prediction. In an article published yesterday, "Over-the-Air TV Catches Second Wind, Aided by Web," The Journal reported the same driving factors we cited:

With an increased array of online-video programming now drawing viewers' attention, companies are starting to pitch consumers on complementing online video streamed from the Web with broadcast-TV signals as a way to save money on cable subscriptions....There are signs that consumers are responding.

Here's what we said on Feb. 1st:

This year, expect more people to reduce their monthly expenses by cancelling their cable subscription – partly to reduce monthly expenses and partly to use new technology that provides a flexible alternative, allowing us to watch what we want, when we want, and on the device of our choosing. 

 It's always nice to be validated by the Wall St. Journal.

New York Times continues to report on security/privacy bills validating our prediction about ongoing stories

The New York Times continues to cover the legislative fight over anti-piracy legislation (Stop Online Piracy Act aka SOPA and Protect Intellectual Property Act aka PIPA). Check out this sample article.

We also predicted that China and cyberwarfare: against the US, including corporate espionage. The New York Times reporter that Vice President Biden took up the cause of predicting US businesses from Chinese corporate espionage: U.S. to Share Cautionary Tale of Trade Secret Theft With Chinese Official.

Looks like we got a few right within the first few weeks! Check  out our predictions about ongoing story angles here.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part 10

Here's our last set of predictions for 2012:

1.     Social media will play a bigger role in the marketing mix for B2B companies. More than eight years and nearly 900 million Facebook users later, B2B businesses will embrace social media, following the lead of B2C companies…though they may not focus on Facebook to reach their customers. B2B companies will recognize the need to generate their own multimedia content, and that there are active and engaged business consumers even for niche sectors. We expect that more B2B companies will consider increasing budgets to make engaging their targets through social media, thought leadership and lead generation their top marketing priorities.

2.     Reporting and metrics will continue to be important for marketing functions. For marketers, analytics will become even more important than ever. Department store owner John Wanamaker is remembered for a quote about metrics: "I know that half of my advertising budget is wasted, but I'm not sure which half." That’s not acceptable anymore. There are so many ways to measure how companies are engaging with their customers and potential customers – that one challenge is to prevent being overwhelmed by metrics and figuring out which ones truly matter to the organization. More than ever, we think clients will be asking and looking for ways to measure ROI.

Thanks for checking out all predictions. Let us know if you agree or disagree with any of them.  At the end of the year, we will issue our annual report card on how we did.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part 9

Here's Part 9 of our predictions:
  

The role of CES will diminish next year. The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) has been the tech industry's most important conference, having eclipsed Comdex a decade ago. CES is a mashup of consumer gadgets and the tech that powers those gadgets (like semiconductors), and it's been considered so important that non-tech outlets feel compelled to cover the latest cool gadgets  launched at the show. But that is changing -- and not just because Apple has not been attending or that Microsoft announced that it will not attend next year's show.  The reason: While CES is not "dead show walking," it is being supplanted by Austin’s South by Southwest (SXSW), March 8-18. The change does not mean we don't love gadgets – because we still do. But it may mean that we don't always like the gadgets CES wants us to love. Prime example: despite last year's CES love fest for 3-D TVs, consumers did not rush out to buy them. We love apps and social and SXSW is the show that launches them. 

 
Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for our last set of predictions for 2012. 

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part 8

Here's Part 8 of our predictions:

The press release will not die in 2012.  Companies still need press releases to communicate news about the company. Twitter is good as a kind of short broadcast of news, but tweets get lost on the timeline – whereas press releases can easily be posted on a corporate newsroom, which is important from an SEO perspective and to demonstrate the company is still alive.  Additionally, reporters, who are overworked (they’re now creating multimedia stories on a daily basis), continue to rely on press releases for content. However, organizations must understand that they can’t rely on a press release alone.  They need to think about new ways they can distribute their news, including infographics, data-and-graphics mashups intended to compellingly present information.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for additional predictions.