Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2014, Part IV: 9 Ongoing Tech Trends

 Last week, we posted top tech trends. Today, we're posting our list of top ongoing tech trends, representing trends that started before 2014.

1. The battle of tablets: After several years of breathless media coverage, the battle for tablet supremacy began when Apple, recognizing a vulnerability in its product line, launched the iPad Mini. Last year, we said it was a two-horse race between iPads and the Kindle Fire but expect a third player to gain traction – enter the Samsung Galaxy. This story has just begu 
2. Mobile everything will be important, including mobile search and mobile recommendations.  We’ll see the later perhaps playing out with shopper-specific recommendations while walking in retail stores – positioned as your own personal shopper. 
3. Crowdsourcing will continue to be a source of investors and a marketing boost. But that will primarily be for consumer-oriented products, not B2B technology. 
4. Virtual startups in otherwise unlikely fields. We’ve already seen the growth of virtual biotechs, and we see that continuing. We expect to see virtual enterprise application developers, who rely on outsourcer providers to do the heavy lifting. We don’t necessarily expect to see a lot of coverage of this trend, just that this is how startups will structure themselves. There’s a financial benefit to being virtual, including the hope for greater efficiencies but with that come other challenges, like credibility with customers and keeping every consultant, vendor and partner on the same page. 
5. 3D printers are still not yet ready for prime time. They will continue to make inroads, and to generate some coverage, but this is not (yet) a device for every household.  It’s too expensive and too complicated. 
6. Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues to go mainstream…until big data is supplanted by the next data trend. 
7. Consumerization of enterprise apps: Mobile and BYOD forces require enterprise apps to be intuitive and easy to use. Ugly interfaces will no longer close sales. 
8. Second screens: Increasingly people watch television programs with their tablets, too, so they can comment real-time on what they’re watching. Helping customers express themselves and buy while they’re watching TV is going to be an important from a marketing perspective in the coming years.
9. Cognitive and context computing:  IBM Watson represents cognitive computing, which "combines natural language processing, machine learning, and hypothesis generation and evaluation," (according to IBM) and it didn't just beat Jeopardy champions in 2011. IBM Watson (and cognitive computing) is kicking off a new wave in computing. (Yes, we know, we've heard that before.)  Fortune did a cover story in Sept. 2013 reporting on IBM's Massive Bet on Watson. Contextual computing is not vastly different. Fast Company breathlessly reported that contextual computing -- including Google's latest search algorithm, will bring "Machines that understand you and everything you care about, anticipate your behavior and emotions, absorb your social graph, interpret your intentions, and make life, um, 'easier.'" We expect both cognitive and context computing will get more attention in 2014, even though we're in the early stages. Implications: IBM Watson's ability to provide students (and the rest of us) with almost instant access to historical data means that educators must rethink curriculum. Less important, now, are specific dates of historical events; what's now important is understanding the substantive issues surround the Treaty of Ghent, for example -- issues that sometimes get scant attention in the need to emphasize dates. We see that happening in business, too.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II or Part III.

Track Record for Predictions for 2013, Part VI

Ok, finally, our last set of grades for our predictions for 2013!

• Cloud computing going mainstream: This will continue in 2014, too. Grade: A.
• The battle of tablets: This will continue in 2014, too. Grade: A.
• Gaming for business:  Gaming will continue to be integrated into business and training apps to keep people engaged and entertained. Grade: B+.
• Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues to go mainstream…until big data is supplanted by the next data trend. Grade: B+.
• Consumerization of enterprise apps: We were right about this, too. Grade: B+.
• Hybrid IT: By this we mean technology that combines on-premise and off-site/cloud solutions. This is still important but we don’t think generated a lot of buzz. Grade: B-.
• Second screens: This got a boost from when Twitter went public (which, by the way, was a story we missed; we did not expect it to go public until 2014). A lot of the Twitter IPO stories looked at Twitter’s relationship with commenting on TV programs. Grade: B.
• Infographics: We expect companies to use infographics – visual representations of information like survey data – to make information shareable via social media but we don’t expect print media to reprint corporate inforgraphics because they typically take up too much of a user’s screen, particularly on smartphones. That doesn’t mean infographics are not worth producing, it just means B2B companies need to be realistic in terms of goals for their use. We nailed this. Grade: A.

Overall grade: B+/A- 

Check out our predictions for 2014.

2012 Trends Report Card, Part VI

Here's Part VI of our report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions. 

Tech Trends

1.     Converging technology, like the “paperless office,” won’t live up to its hype. The real story with converging media is BYOD – Bring Your Own Device to the office. We correctly identified BYOD as a trend but overstated problems with multiple devices as a topic of coverage. Grade: B-.

2.     Data will be bigger in 2012. Big Data did generate a lot of coverage, too many to cite. But we’ll one New York Times article: "The Age of Big Data," which says it all. Grade: A.

3.     Ongoing Tech Trends we expect to continue from 2011:

·         Cloud computing: This trend started in 2010 but continues to go mainstream. Grade: A but we admit this was a gimme.

·         The battle of tablets: Just because the first battle went in Apple's direction does not mean that wannabe iPad Killers have given up the fight. Competitors still want to get into the action and capture some of the marketshare. From the media's perspective, it's a two-horse race between the Kindle Fire and iPad. We expect a third option to gain some traction, but the iPad will continue to dominate. Grade: A.

·         The three most important tech trends will be mobile, mobile, mobile. Unless the three most important trends are social, social, social. For example, enterprise technology now needs not only to have an intuitive interface, it also must be accessible on iPads. Grade: A. 

·         Gaming is not just for kids. Gaming will continue to be integrated into business and training apps to keep people engaged and entertained. Grade: B because while the trend continued it did not generate the kind of media attention we expected.

We'll issue our last set of grades in tomorrow's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.