The validation is coming in fast and furious regarding our biotech bubble prediction. We said:
Stock market and
the biotech bubble. 2014 will be marked by concerns about the health
of the stock market. Of the different sectors, rising biotech shares will
generate growing concern of a biotech bubble. That concern will affect all
parts of the industry, especially startups as VCs start getting nervous about
their portfolios. Implications:
There’s not much publicly held companies can do – except, as a Forbes reporter once
told us, have you company “do better…and boost its share price.” We just think
it’s important to understand how editors allocate their resources (reporters’
time and the outlets’ news hole).
The Wall St. Journal validated that with an article, "Hot New Biotech Knows Roller-Coaster Feeling" and the Boston Globe validated it with "After boom, 2014 repeat for biotech is uncertain."
We know that talking about bubbles can take on a certain air on inevitability, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. We hope we're wrong in this case.
Here's our list of general news stories we expect to see in 2014.
- More interest in workplace
diversity. Spurred by SNL's hiring of two black women comedians (at press time SNL
had not hired any black comic/actress this season but we expect they will hire
two black actresses), we think there will more attention paid to diversity in TV
shows and movies, and that this could lead to a larger discussion about
diversity in the non-celebrity-filled workplace.
- Growing Hispanic influence. This is a
demographics story, one that will get mentioned a lot in the run up to the
midterm elections, especially if immigration reform gets discussed.
- Real estate market.
Along
with the retail sector, the media likes to look at real estate to determine how
the economy is really going. Expect a look
at renters v. owners, and the impact of housing prices across the country. We
also expect more interest in urban real estate as companies will say goodbye to
the 'burbs to attract qualified employees.
- The new
Thanksgiving tradition is shopping on Thanksgiving. As much as we don't like it, from here on
in, the Christmas shopping season will probably start Thanksgiving Day. Implications: This changes retail
stories told in Q3.
- Stock market and
the biotech bubble. 2014 will be marked by concerns about the health
of the stock market. Of the different sectors, rising biotech shares will
generate growing concern of a biotech bubble. That concern will affect all
parts of the industry, especially startups as VCs start getting nervous about
their portfolios. Implications:
There’s not much publicly held companies can do – except, as a Forbes reporter once
told us, have you company “do better…and boost its share price.” We just think
it’s important to understand how editors allocate their resources (reporters’
time and the outlets’ news hole).
Tomorrow we'll issue our list of ongoing (continuing from 2013) news stories we expect to see.
Let us know if you agree or disagree. Click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV or Part V.
