Is Twitter's $1B Valuation an Example of Dot-Com Bubble Redux?

According to TechCrunch, Twitter is being valued at $1 billion. Meanwhile, one valuation for BusinessWeek came in at $1.00.

Could there really be such a huge gap between the two properties? BusinessWeek reporter Stephen Baker mused about this in his blog posting, "Could Twitter be worth one billion BusinessWeeks?"

Since Twitter has no revenue model in place, it's easy to consider that we're back in the dot-com bubble days. AOL was once considered to be much more valuable than Time Magazine. Does anybody remember AOL?

I like Twitter, and it's certainly generating load of coverage -- Jay Leno mentioned it at least three times during last night's show. But I have to wonder how much can Twitter be worth when the site generates no revenue.

Do you think Twitter is worth $1B? Do you think BusinessWeek is worth $1.00? Let me know.

Do Blogs Have to be Accurate? Some bloggers say it's better to be fast than accurate

A lot of blogs, because they don't have the time, resources, or inclination to do otherwise, publish rumors -- and fast, to get a jump on competing blogs and on mainstream media.

In an article that points out that problem (published by the New York Times, the pinnacle of MSM), Damon Darlin wrote an illuminating article, "Get the Tech Scuttlebutt! (It Might Even Be True.)"

Darlin cites the rumored acquisition talks between Apple and Twitter, which several blogs ran despite a sense that the talks were not taking place. As TechCrunch's Michael Arrington said, "It was interesting, and it didn't hurt anyone to write it."

That casual attitude towards accuracy, Darlin notes, was a component of early 20th century newspapers, known as "yellow journalism" and typified in "Citizen Kane," "The Front Page" and dozens of early movies whose settings included the newspaper. But newspapers eventually realized they needed to be accurate.

Not the case with blogs.

As Arrington told the Times, "Getting it right is expensive. Getting it first is cheap."

Or, as Brian Lam, who built Gizmodo, said, "The only way to compete with a news organiztion with more resources is to fit between the cracks...If we don't do have rumors, what do we have as journalists?" His answer: "You have press releases," which is how he justifies what they do. "So maybe there is some honor in printing rumors," he told Darlin.

For PR functions, this article and quotes are instructive. These are sites that don't honor embargoes (check out Can PR Embargoes Survive in a Web 2.0 World?) and have already said they prefer to post stories quickly rather than fact check them. I understand that, and it makes sense for them. It just means PR people need to be careful when approaching these blogs.

TechCrunch Proclaims "Death to the Embargo"

TechCrunch has been scooped. By PRBackTalk in June. TechCrunch recently announced Death To The Embargo, but we figured embargoes don't easily exist in the Web 2.0 world. Check out my initial post: Can PR Embargoes Survive in a Web 2.0 World?

Now it's true that TechCrunch says death to the embargo from a very different perspective. But the conclusion is the same.

The TechCrunch death-to-embargoes is another example of the growing tension between journalists and publicists (hacks vs. flacks). I've been observing online the growing frustration on both sides (latest installment: PR and the fine art of not being crazy and BadPitch), and while most don't seem to care about it, I think it's fairly obvious what's causing the tension:

• Media companies are going through the worst down cycle since 1987, and perhaps the worst time since the 1930s. The advertising-supported business model no longer works.
  
• Traditional media is also in the midst of seismic changes. We're moving to an online-only model for most newspapers and magazines -- and traditional media doesn't like it. Neither do most PR agencies because clients still want national print coverage, and don't consider online media to be important/worthwhile.
• PR agencies can't agree on metrics for online media so can't merchandise their success the way they could with circulation numbers.
• Online media distinctly works in new ways from traditional media -- and the new rules, which are evolving and not set in stone yet -- are frustrating both hacks and flacks because neither side "gets it" right now. Both sides are operating on assumptions -- like embargoes, for example -- that don't make sense to the other party. (Embargoes, and the penalties for breaking them, used to be something both hacks and flacks understood. That's no longer true.)

As PR executives, we strive to make sense of the changing media environment, and work to educate our clients based on what we see, what we read and what we hear from reporters. But it's important for PR folks to make sure we understand the culture of each channel (like blogs, Facebook or Twitter). Social media isn't a short cut, it's just a new channel. To do it right takes time, patience and understanding.

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It's That Time in the Economy Again: TechCrunch Layoff Tracker

TechCrunch has begun tracking all of the relevant layoffs in the tech sector with the TechCrunch Layoff Tracker. And Philip Kaplan, founder of the last recession's bellwether, F*ckedcompany, has nearly 4,000 followers on Twitter.

According to TechCrunch, more than 58,709 people have lost their jobs since Aug. 27, 2008. That total, derived from 198 tech sector layoffs, is a global count, including US, Finland, India, UK and a surprising number from Israel. (What's scary is that that total was 49,000 and 179 layoffs just last week.)

The results may have more to do with who's submitting the layoff tips than is representational of the actual total.

But the implications are clear -- there have been a lot of layoffs, and there are, unfortunately, more to come.

From a client perspective, we expect to see lead gen to be even more important for marketing departments than it has been until now, as companies focus on driving sales.

From a PR agency perspective, we expect layoffs like the 20% at Racepoint ("Racepoint points 20% of staff to the door," Mass High Tech) to fuel new virtual agencies. The challenge for these new PR startups is that they will be competing with small agencies that got started in the last downturn and have had years to build up a track record of success.

Demo vs. TechCrunch

TechCrunch is taking on the 17-year-old Demo conference. Check out Brad Stone's article in the New York Times, "Amid Conference Halls and Keynote Speakers, a Rivalry Forms," which describes the situation. Michael Arrington, TechCrunch's founder, is using his blog and Twitter to promote his conference which coincides with Demo.

For PR folks, the thing to consider is this: Sept. 7-9 (Demo in San Diego) and Sept. 8-10 (TechCrunch50 in San Francisco) will be busy times for West Coast tech reporters. Advise your clients not to consider media tours that week.

It's the End of Blogging as We Know It, According to Jason Calacanis

Blogger Jason Calacanis has retired from blogger, saying blogging is dead. He's now shifting to email. Read about why in TechCrunch's Jason Calacanis’ First New Email Post.

Here are Calacanis' main reasons for saying blogging is dead:

• "Folks are so desperate to be heard–and we all want to be heard that’s why we blog–that the effort put into being heard has eclipsed the actual hearing."
• "Bloggers spend more time digging, tweeting, and SEOing their posts than they do on the posts themselves."
• Five years ago, to be a successful blogger, you had to “show up every day.” "Today? What’s required is a team of social marketers to get your message out there, and a second one to manage the fall-out from whatever you’ve said."
• "Excelling in blogging today is about link-baiting, the act of writing something inflammatory in order to get a link."

He also provides an explanation why he thinks communicating by email is more personal. TechCrunch says it expect Calacanis's objective in switching to email "will not achieve what he has set out for - and that is to have a conversation with the top slice of his readers." And I agree with TechCrunch.

Why? Here's what TechCrunch says: because "You will likely see his emails re-published, probably on a blog and probably with comments and everything else."

Just like I've done here.