Additional Set of Predictions for 2020: A Baker's Dozen of Tech Trends

We realize our first set of trends for 2020, published Jan. 8, was a bit of a downer since it identified "Distrust of Big Tech and media fuels anxiety" and "the loss of local news coverage will continue, and will erode trust." (The third trend was neutral: "Streaming services will get a lot of media and consumer attention.")

Here's our second set — a baker's dozen — of trends and predictions for 2020, some of which are more upbeat. 

1. 5G and facial recognition will get lots of attention. 5G and AI have enormous potential as transformative technologies, and we will see lots of articles about how we’re losing the race against China. Among other things, 5G may improve the ability to protect against cyber threats — although, as the good guys improve their capabilities, so do the bad guys. And facial recognition is advancing and could be in more devices — but there's also a downside to it, including privacy and the fact that the technology has a problem recognizing some faces.
2. Artificial Intelligence will be in everything. AI has reached a tipping point and will be built in to many things that weren’t possible just a few years ago. For example, AI can help with drug development because AI can simulate how molecules in drugs will interact with the body. And AI in the fridge can detect spoiled forgotten foods, and notify you to throw it out and order more. 5G + AI can identify patterns before a factory machine or an airplane will likely breakdown. That said, we expect increased demands for regulating AI. 
3. AI will affect in-store retail.  In prior years, we’ve talked about the “Amazonification” or “retailpocalypse,” and we saw a lot of evidence of that in 2019. That certainly will continue in 2020. That said, we think that AI will change how stores stock shelves because they will have better customer intelligence about how customers shop and what they want. There are lots of people who like to shop in stores, and AI-optimized selection may give shoppers a reason to continue to be loyal to the in-store experience.
4. Software is the once and future king. Hardware and gadgets are always going to be important but it’s the software that will add new features that improve the things we already have. Like smart elevators in office buildings that can decide how to more efficiently route passengers based on floor requests. Or cars that look the same but now feature all sorts of sensors to improve safety or can drive themselves. The ability to code will continue to be important, and AI will continue to be in high demand.
5. Everything will be connected, and voice will be increasingly important way to get things done. This won’t happen all at once in 2020 but IoT-enabled appliances and devices will become more mainstream, and increasingly we will use voice, either indirectly through virtual assistants or directly to the device, to operate those devices, whether it’s our thermostats, lights, security system or what’s cooking in the toaster oven. Expect Amazon and Google to offer new capabilities with their own devices and to build those capabilities into devices built by other companies.
6. Drones will experience significant growth in B2B applications. As a consumer gadget, they seem like fun the first time you use them but then what do you do with them? Instead, drones will be used as a B2B tool for deliveries, maintenance, etc. As the get smaller and quieter, drones will appear in sports and arts events to bring us up close to the action in a way we could not participate in before.
7. Robots won’t take over in 2020 but will be more commonplace. While the market for consumer robots like vacuum cleaners will be strong, we feel that real growth in 2020 will be fueled by B2B applications that will drive pilot programs and purchases. We’re already seeing a slow-moving robot in a local supermarket (though we’re not entirely sure what it’s doing there.) We do expect to see growth especially in 2021 in robotics-related jobs such as data labelers (the people who label things so robots can identify them), AI scientists, even robot managers who make sure robots are working effectively.
8. From customer service to mental health and beyond, chatbots will be there to help us. We expect to see more AI-enabled chatbots to help run things more effectively. In the near future, chatbots will not only answer questions more effectively (rather than posting some links for further information based on the topic you enter to get more assistance) but can help you navigate websites so that you can place an order for train tickets, and in one place provide the details, and have the chatbots identify the optimum itinerary for you. Also chatbots may be preferred to humans because no small talk required and sometimes it’s just easier to interact with a faceless, impersonal (nonjudgmental) chatbot.
9. Robocalls won’t go away. The recently signed TRACED Act anti-robocall bill will increase fines and accelerate call-authentication technology but will likely only reduce — not eliminate — robocalls. The reason: robocalls work, especially with the elderly. And the people behind robocalls will continue to find ways to place robocalls until it becomes too expensive for them to do so.
10. The problem of data collection.  There may be two problems about which everyone can agree: 1) The torment of robocalls and 2) the problem of data collection that means everything we do — whether online or offline — is being monitored by someone, even if we don’t know by whom or what they are doing (or intend to do) with our data. Surveys have found that Americans don’t think the trade-off for convenience is always beneficial — especially since they feel a lack of control over their data. We think data collection and privacy are important issues but we’re not sure how much attention they’ll receive outside of data breaches, which, as an acute incident, will continue to generate media attention when (not if) they happen. 
11. More home exercise equipment will offer at-home streaming classes. This is part of a trend to offer screens on devices that didn’t have them before. We expect brands in addition to Peloton will offer streaming classes to get more out of exercycles, treadmills, rowing machines, etc.
12. The age of plant-based “meats” has gone mainstream. Now that a number of fast food chains offer plant-based meats, it’s time to acknowledge this trend as mainstream. We expect additional growth of materials grown in the lab, replacing faux fur, leather, cotton using recycled plastics. That said, we don't expect a lot of coverage about this since newspapers have already done comparisons of the different brands of plant-based hamburgers.
13. There will be a lot of media space allocated to covering outer space. Or the Space Race, Part II since we're living in an age of sequels. Technology is enabling startups to race to the moon to build a lunar economy, and we expect some of the technology to get coverage but the main story will be about the business models and investment opportunities. Meanwhile we also expect coverage about political and legal issues of space as well as articles about things that just a few years ago would have flown under the radar (we've really been trying not to make space puns) such as the growing awareness that too many satellites are causing a traffic jam in space. This space jam began to get recognition as a potential problem in space in 2019 but we think it will get more recognition in 2020. The risk of collisions among satellites is a problem.
    

We will roll out an additional of societal trends (as opposed to the above list of mostly tech trends) in the next week, along with a set of ongoing trends.

In the meantime, please let us know if you agree or disagree with any of the above trends.  

John Oliver Validates Our Prediction about Robocalls

Back in Feb., we published a blog, 4 New Predictions + 17 Ongoing Trends for 2019 that identified robocalls as "an issue everyone can support. We all get too many robocalls, whether on our cell phones or land lines."

A month later, in March, John Oliver caught up with our prediction.

In fact, he described the situation this way:

"Everybody is annoyed by robocalls. Hatred of them might be the only thing that everyone in American agrees on now."

He then goes into greater detail about why robocalls have gotten more prevalent. And then leads to a hilarious partial solution...at least to get the FCC's attention to the matter so that the agency puts in place solutions to address the robocall problem.

Enjoy!

4 New Predictions + 17 Ongoing Trends for 2019

It may be a new year but some of the trends we expect to generate media coverage in 2019 are ones from prior years.

In this installment about 2019 trends, we list four new predictions plus 17 ongoing trends that will continue in 2019. That's 21 predictions in one article. In some cases, we will just mention the trend without much explanation because we've covered them a lot before. (If you have any questions, post a comment and we'll respond.)

Here are four new predictions based on continuing trends.

• Lawmakers will act against robocalls. Here’s an issue everyone can support. We all get too many robocalls, whether on our cell phones or land lines. What’s gotten worse is not just how many of the calls we each get but that most of these have spoofed caller IDs so you think it might be a neighbor or someone you know. We expect lawmakers to pass bills to reducing spoofing and robocalls. Already some of the phone companies are expanding their offerings. One problem: you need a different solution to combat the robocall problem on cell phones from the solution for landlines.
• More colleges will fail and college debt levels will continue to be a significant issue for millennials. Some colleges can’t afford to keep their doors open and many students can’t afford to pay for a college education. The former is an issue and the latter is huge problem for society. We expect to see think pieces in 2019 (and beyond) about the plight of higher education in America.
• The implications of the (possible) end of Moore’s Law will generate think pieces. In 1965, Gordon Moore, a semiconductor pioneer, wrote a paper that observed that that the number of transistors on a chip would double every year while the costs are halved. We’ve now reached a point where that no longer may be true. There are significant implications if Moore’s prediction slows down so that instead of doubling every year or two, the number of transistors increases every three to five years. We’re not going to go into the implications here except to say we expect there to be some coverage/debate about this in 2019.
• Cashless-only retail will gain momentum. This is a generational issue but millennials don’t seem to use cash. They use Apple Pay, Venmo and other e-cash solutions but not cash. We expect to see more stores open that are cashless-only – that won’t accept cash. It won’t happen to supermarkets or hardware stores but it will be more prevalent in neighborhoods and retailers catering to a younger, cooler demographic. You might not even notice it happen if you, yourself, rarely use cash at the register. But it will be a problem for older people and people with lower income, including the 14.1 million unbanked adults, according to the Wall St. Journal; what’s disturbing is that the same article reported that, “Despite consumers’ expanded access to banking, one in five households, or 22.7 million, didn’t use mainstream credit such as credit cards and mortgages in the prior year.” That’s a lot of people who will be further cut off from many parts of the economy. 

Here’s our updated list of ongoing trends:

1. The Age of Anxiety continues. Chaos, uncertainty, anger, a sense of helplessness and the near-constant news notifications will continue to fuel our Age of Anxiety, especially since it seems to be hard to escape. Even broadcast journalists have commented on air that they’re overwhelmed in trying to stay on top of and to process all the news – and that’s their job. We expect many to experience news fatigue, take “news vacations” or (aka a technology cleanses or digital detox, where they shut off all notifications on their phones and take hiatuses from social media – even though that’s nearly impossible to do. As we’ve said previously, in 2019, we expect more coverage regarding stress, anxiety, mental health and ways to de-stress. But the implications for marketers is this: 1) If consumers are turning off news and social media, it will be harder to reach them via ads, media relations and social media; and 2) They might be interested consumer media that distracts them from their anxiety.
2. Concerns about Retailpocalypse and Amazonification will continue to have an impact in 2019. More big brands will struggle, close locations or declare bankruptcy this year. One change: we expect some saber rattling about whether or not to clamp down on Amazon’s market power. The good news is there will be some innovations in the sector, and some retailers will do well despite Amazonification. The retail sector is important in a consumer-driven economy but there are implications for real estate (when locations go unrented for a long time), local unemployment (the job market is strong but it may be hard for retail staff to transition to another industry), local economies (what happens to cities when retailers abandon them), local media (which benefits from local ads, circulars, etc.) 
3. The gig economy, robotics and automation and income inequality will continue to spark think pieces about the nature of work. Last year, we said think pieces about the nature of work would be sparked by the labor shortage and the gig economy. This year, we expect think pieces to be driven by those two factors plus concerns about jobs of the future as industrial robots, and automation begin to make inroads in factory settings. Also look for articles about rethinking income inequality, the social safety net and the future of unions for gig workers who don’t necessarily get minimum wage, unemployment benefits, vacation and sick days or employer-contributions for workers’ comp, Social Security and Medicare. We also expect that there will be calls to better measure the gig economy.
4. The debate about how to regulate Facebook, Google and Twitter will continue. It’s clear that social media companies continue to not be able to stay ahead of their problems. Congress knows it needs to do something in 2019 to address data privacy, hate speech/bullying that isn’t being removed/policed fast enough and election interference/misinformation from Russia. The new goal of any new regulation should be to go into effect before 2020 but we are skeptical that this will be possible because we’d bet that Facebook, Twitter and Google would have addressed their problems if they could have, rather than be regulated by Congress. There will also be articles looking at technology’s role in a democracy. Part of the problem: social media makes it easy to share content before users vet it, and that’s something Congress can’t mandate.
5. Fake news won’t fade in 2019. Part of the problem is that the term “fake news” can mean almost anything: from news you disagree with or don’t like (but are actually true) to stories that are part of misinformation campaigns (and are factually false). If we can’t agree on a definition of it, and if Facebook, Google and Twitter all have trouble dealing with the fake news scourge, how will regulations and Congress be able to solve what the social media giants can’t? There’s no light at the end of the tunnel since there are calls that even the fact-checking at Facebook must be checked. It’s harder than ever to trust our institutions, which adds to the anxiety so many are experiencing.   
6. Cord cutting turns out to be complicated and expensive. Over the next 18 months, we’ll experience a glut as more streaming services get launched. It’s getting harder to find all the things you want to watch. Something available on Netflix last month may be found on Hulu next month and then some new service next year. So to watch everything you want, you’ll have to have subscriptions with Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO Go, and dozens more. Cable might be simpler and less expensive.
7. IoT will continue to be victim to cyberattacks. This hasn’t gotten a lot of attention but we think it will. As reported by a friend in a recent issue of Bloomberg Businessweek, recently a cruise line offered “a proprietary mobile app, which unlocks your cabin door and lets you book activities on and off the ship….(A passenger’s) roommate used it to prank her, remotely flashing the lights and opening the blinds in their cabin.” Seems like a harmless prank but it speaks to more nefarious possibilities. We’re worried that there will be more IoT cyberattacks, as IoT, Smart Homes and virtual assistants go mainstream. Perhaps the only advantage of having to get up and walk over to a light switch is that hackers can’t hack your home.
8. There’s still not enough cybersecurity protection or privacy. They say millennials don’t care much about privacy but we think that will likely change as they get older. There’s certainly not enough of cybersecurity.
9. Cloud computing will stay strong. This may be the one tech trend that has yet to experience a backlash. Cloud computing remains an important paradigm, and we don't see that changing in 2019, which means that it's a trend that may not get that much ink because editors are always looking for stories that answer "What's new?" and that move the story forward. That said, for business press, there's still interest in the horse race between Amazon's  AWS, Microsoft's Azure and Google Cloud Platform. We expect to see more about "cloud agnostic" or “Not Amazon” as a key message that will help lure customers that compete with Amazon to look beyond AWS. 
10. Driverless cars will generate attention but still won’t appear at local dealership. Closer on the horizon is more electric cars, with China’s plans to eliminate all new combustion cars and trucks by 2030. There are lots of challenges to be addressed either way, like having are enough charging stations for electric cars and investing in the type of infrastructure – in urban, suburban and rural areas – that can enable driverless cars to operate including in bad weather. Oh, and there will continue to be a lot of coverage of Tesla.
11. E-Scooters will become more of a thing in 2019. Some of us first heard about a vague problem of e-scooters like Bird that began cluttering up sidewalks in some cities. We expect them to gain more attention in 2019, becoming a full-fledged trends, much the way urban bike share and bike lanes did (it seems to us) in 2018. (They were around before 2018 but people began talking about bike lanes much more, we feel.)
12. Corporate boycotts and consumer boycotts will continue. These are boycotts by companies in order to demonstrate distance from controversial programs and personalities. We also expect boycotts of companies that are boycotting those controversial people and programs.
13. Drug pricing will continue to get a lot of attention. The problem: it’s expensive to develop new drugs – on average it costs $2.6 billion – and pharma companies need to use successful drugs to fund future development. There won’t be an easy solution so we don’t expect much from Congress except outrage.
14. Wearable tech will still not be as mainstream as people in the industry were hoping. But wearable will make quiet inroads so that before you know it (probably not in 2019, though), lots of things will have built-in technology.
15. The need for more Americans to pursue STEM education and careers continue to be important. With a looming labor shortage (in some fields), businesses are looking for employees with a firm grasp of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). We think funding for STEM will continue to keep U.S. businesses competitive.
16. Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality still won’t be everywhere yet. VR and AR still aren't fully mainstream because people still don't yet have a strong-enough need for it. Watching a basketball game on Oculus is cool but not practical in how many people watch content these days, on their phones while in public spaces. (Can you imagine a subway car filled with people wearing heavy headsets?)
17. 3-D content and 3-D printers will still not be as popular as they are cool.

Let us know if you disagree or agree with us selection. Did we miss something? Overstate things? We're happy to hear from you.