Additional Set of Predictions for 2020: A Baker's Dozen of Tech Trends

We realize our first set of trends for 2020, published Jan. 8, was a bit of a downer since it identified "Distrust of Big Tech and media fuels anxiety" and "the loss of local news coverage will continue, and will erode trust." (The third trend was neutral: "Streaming services will get a lot of media and consumer attention.")

Here's our second set — a baker's dozen — of trends and predictions for 2020, some of which are more upbeat. 

1. 5G and facial recognition will get lots of attention. 5G and AI have enormous potential as transformative technologies, and we will see lots of articles about how we’re losing the race against China. Among other things, 5G may improve the ability to protect against cyber threats — although, as the good guys improve their capabilities, so do the bad guys. And facial recognition is advancing and could be in more devices — but there's also a downside to it, including privacy and the fact that the technology has a problem recognizing some faces.
2. Artificial Intelligence will be in everything. AI has reached a tipping point and will be built in to many things that weren’t possible just a few years ago. For example, AI can help with drug development because AI can simulate how molecules in drugs will interact with the body. And AI in the fridge can detect spoiled forgotten foods, and notify you to throw it out and order more. 5G + AI can identify patterns before a factory machine or an airplane will likely breakdown. That said, we expect increased demands for regulating AI. 
3. AI will affect in-store retail.  In prior years, we’ve talked about the “Amazonification” or “retailpocalypse,” and we saw a lot of evidence of that in 2019. That certainly will continue in 2020. That said, we think that AI will change how stores stock shelves because they will have better customer intelligence about how customers shop and what they want. There are lots of people who like to shop in stores, and AI-optimized selection may give shoppers a reason to continue to be loyal to the in-store experience.
4. Software is the once and future king. Hardware and gadgets are always going to be important but it’s the software that will add new features that improve the things we already have. Like smart elevators in office buildings that can decide how to more efficiently route passengers based on floor requests. Or cars that look the same but now feature all sorts of sensors to improve safety or can drive themselves. The ability to code will continue to be important, and AI will continue to be in high demand.
5. Everything will be connected, and voice will be increasingly important way to get things done. This won’t happen all at once in 2020 but IoT-enabled appliances and devices will become more mainstream, and increasingly we will use voice, either indirectly through virtual assistants or directly to the device, to operate those devices, whether it’s our thermostats, lights, security system or what’s cooking in the toaster oven. Expect Amazon and Google to offer new capabilities with their own devices and to build those capabilities into devices built by other companies.
6. Drones will experience significant growth in B2B applications. As a consumer gadget, they seem like fun the first time you use them but then what do you do with them? Instead, drones will be used as a B2B tool for deliveries, maintenance, etc. As the get smaller and quieter, drones will appear in sports and arts events to bring us up close to the action in a way we could not participate in before.
7. Robots won’t take over in 2020 but will be more commonplace. While the market for consumer robots like vacuum cleaners will be strong, we feel that real growth in 2020 will be fueled by B2B applications that will drive pilot programs and purchases. We’re already seeing a slow-moving robot in a local supermarket (though we’re not entirely sure what it’s doing there.) We do expect to see growth especially in 2021 in robotics-related jobs such as data labelers (the people who label things so robots can identify them), AI scientists, even robot managers who make sure robots are working effectively.
8. From customer service to mental health and beyond, chatbots will be there to help us. We expect to see more AI-enabled chatbots to help run things more effectively. In the near future, chatbots will not only answer questions more effectively (rather than posting some links for further information based on the topic you enter to get more assistance) but can help you navigate websites so that you can place an order for train tickets, and in one place provide the details, and have the chatbots identify the optimum itinerary for you. Also chatbots may be preferred to humans because no small talk required and sometimes it’s just easier to interact with a faceless, impersonal (nonjudgmental) chatbot.
9. Robocalls won’t go away. The recently signed TRACED Act anti-robocall bill will increase fines and accelerate call-authentication technology but will likely only reduce — not eliminate — robocalls. The reason: robocalls work, especially with the elderly. And the people behind robocalls will continue to find ways to place robocalls until it becomes too expensive for them to do so.
10. The problem of data collection.  There may be two problems about which everyone can agree: 1) The torment of robocalls and 2) the problem of data collection that means everything we do — whether online or offline — is being monitored by someone, even if we don’t know by whom or what they are doing (or intend to do) with our data. Surveys have found that Americans don’t think the trade-off for convenience is always beneficial — especially since they feel a lack of control over their data. We think data collection and privacy are important issues but we’re not sure how much attention they’ll receive outside of data breaches, which, as an acute incident, will continue to generate media attention when (not if) they happen. 
11. More home exercise equipment will offer at-home streaming classes. This is part of a trend to offer screens on devices that didn’t have them before. We expect brands in addition to Peloton will offer streaming classes to get more out of exercycles, treadmills, rowing machines, etc.
12. The age of plant-based “meats” has gone mainstream. Now that a number of fast food chains offer plant-based meats, it’s time to acknowledge this trend as mainstream. We expect additional growth of materials grown in the lab, replacing faux fur, leather, cotton using recycled plastics. That said, we don't expect a lot of coverage about this since newspapers have already done comparisons of the different brands of plant-based hamburgers.
13. There will be a lot of media space allocated to covering outer space. Or the Space Race, Part II since we're living in an age of sequels. Technology is enabling startups to race to the moon to build a lunar economy, and we expect some of the technology to get coverage but the main story will be about the business models and investment opportunities. Meanwhile we also expect coverage about political and legal issues of space as well as articles about things that just a few years ago would have flown under the radar (we've really been trying not to make space puns) such as the growing awareness that too many satellites are causing a traffic jam in space. This space jam began to get recognition as a potential problem in space in 2019 but we think it will get more recognition in 2020. The risk of collisions among satellites is a problem.
    

We will roll out an additional of societal trends (as opposed to the above list of mostly tech trends) in the next week, along with a set of ongoing trends.

In the meantime, please let us know if you agree or disagree with any of the above trends.  

Track Record for Predictions for 2013, Part V

Here's our report card for the ongoing stories we said we'd see covered in the media in 2013. 

o    The implementation and implications of Obamacare: This is one of 2013’s biggest stories (other than twerking, which we didn’t predict). This will be a big story in 2014 as both political parties try to make their cases ahead of the midterm elections. Grade: A+.

o    Gun control laws: As an issue, guns generated a lot of media coverage. Grade: A.

o    Deficits, spending cuts, taxes, etc.: This got a boost when the House of Representatives pushed the government to shut down for two weeks. This will continue to be a story in 2014. Grade: A.

o    Made in the USA: Continued to generate coverage, including in the July/August issue of Fast Company featured a compelling story, "The Road To Resilience: How Unscientific Innovation Saved Marlin Steel;A little maker of metal baskets shows how U.S. manufacturers can thrive against all comers. Grade: B+.

o    Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: Lots of coverage on this, especially in the first half of 2013 before leaks and NSA took over. Grade: B+.

o    Salaries paid women vs. men. There was some coverage about salaries but even more coverage about the roles of women in business, thanks to Facebook's COO, Sheryl Sandberg, has generated tons of coverage as the result of her book, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead. In 2013, Lean In became the big gender-related story. Grade: B.

o    Cashless payments. We expect cashless wallets to go mainstream by 2016, and are holding to that, even as alternate credit card payment systems like Square proliferate.  The Boston Globe validated our prediction with an article: "Not paying by smartphone? You soon will, many bet. Grade: A.

o    Crowdsourcing/daily deals: We were right that crowdsourcing continued to be a big story and right that daily deal sites would decline in coverage. Grade: A+.

o    Star Wars: We were not surprised Wired made the new Star Wars film (not due to 2015) a cover story, but we were pleased. Another good prediction. There will be more speculation on characters and story lines in 2014. Grade: A.

o    Fees: We said we “don’t actually expect there to be a lot of coverage of how companies use fees to cover costs and raise revenues. However, we expect companies to continue to rely on fees on services they used to provide for free to boost their bottom lines.” Grade: B.

 

We'll post the final set on Monday. In the meantime, please check out our predictions for 2014, available here.

Boston Globe Validates Predictions about Cashless Payments and Gender Roles

In our annual predictions, we said that as part of "ongoing stories" that we expect to get a lot of coverage in 2013, we identified these two:

• Salaries paid women vs. men

         and

•  Cashless payments

Yesterday, the Boston Globe validated both of those predictions.  The "salaries paid women vs. men" stories has actually shifted already to address on women's roles in the office. Part of the reason for that shift is the result of interest in Yahoo's CEO, Marissa Mayer, who recently gave birth and returned from a brief maternity leave. More significantly, Facebook's COO, Sheryl Sandberg, has generated tons of coverage as the result of her book, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead. (Incidentally, "Lean In" was one of the phrases we identified last year as a candidate for most overused phrase.) The whole focus on women and the office will continue to generate buzz this year, even after buzz for Sandberg's book dissipates.

Meanwhile, check out these two front-page Globe articles, which validate our prediction about women and salaries, and were published under the banner: "Crunch hits single mothers hard": 

• Gloria Steinem’s message about gender, then and now  
• Single-mother families struggling in Mass.

(Meanwhile, taking an opposite angle, the New York Times yesterday reported, "Study of Men’s Falling Income Cites Single Parents." The point: it seems that some gender issues are taking on more significance in the media.)

As for the cashless payments predictions, the Globe also reported: "Not paying by smartphone? You soon will, many bet." While this all seems relatively new to U.S. companies, two of our international clients prefer to pay electronically; in fact, the CFO of one international client told me earlier this week that he can't remember the last time he saw a check! We said we expect cashless payments to become mainstream by 2016 but it may happen sooner (based on comments like that CFOs, since it seems Europe has already embraced cashless payments). Perhaps that time will come by 2015.

What do you think?

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part XI

Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media, Part II. 

• Salaries paid women vs. men. There were a few articles percolating in 2012 that men continue to get paid more than women for the same jobs. We think there’s a good chance that this issue will rightfully garner more attention in 2013. 
• Cashless payments. Last year, we said that digital wallets or e-wallets will would be mainstream by 2017. At the end of 2012, we moved that up to 2016. We continue to think there are security and behavioral, as well as technical, issues to be addressed but we do think that e-wallets that are stored in your phone make sense. We now rarely go anywhere (including, ugh, the bathroom) without our phones, and we already use our smartphones to make purchases online so it makes sense that we will forgo carrying a wallet. Key issues that remain include: There are several competing e-wallets standards being developed by often fierce competitors who in some cases are working together – but they need to find a way they can work together; you don’t want to be in a situation where your Google Wallet doesn’t work because the retailer is using Isis from AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. Another key issue is the systems retailers will need to deploy to accept cashless payments; we’re not sure that Near Field Communications (NFC) readers will take off because of the additional cost to retailers. We expect the industry to solve this in order to facilitate the mainstreaming of e-wallets. 
• Crowdsourcing/daily deals: We think the media isn’t tired yet of reporting on interesting stories about companies that crowdsourced their way to success. But the bar has been raised because the fact that you’re crowdsourcing isn’t enough to generate coverage – your company has to be doing something else that’s relevant. Meanwhile, the daily deal business has lost buzz – we’re not saying it’s going away, just that there will be fewer stories about daily deal sites, with one exception. We expect coverage of Groupon from a business, management and share-price perspective. 
• Star Wars: Not the Reagan-era defense system, but the actual Star Wars. With the next installment of Star Wars expected to reach movie theatres in 2013 (assuming there will still be movies theatres, and that we're not all downloading the latest releases on our many devices), we can expect a growing number of articles and references in pop culture to JJ Abrams' next movie, including much speculation about the actors (will Harrison Ford reprise Han Solo?), the story, etc. 
• Fees: We don’t actually expect there to be a lot of coverage of how companies use fees to cover costs and raise revenues. However, we expect companies to continue to rely on fees on services they used to provide for free to boost their bottom lines.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part I"),  Part VIII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part II"), Part IX ("Premature Deathwatch, Part III") or Part X ("Ongoing stories, Part I").

2012 Trends Report Card, Part V

Here's Part V of our report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions. 

General Business Trends

1.     Companies will use fees to offset declining revenue in 2012. This didn’t generate the kind of coverage we expected but it still was an issue this year. Check out this Wall St. Journal article: "Big Bank Weighs Fee Revamp; Bank of America Considers a Revamp That Would Affect Millions of Customers."  BofA got embroiled in at least social media controversy over its fees.  Grade: B.

2.     Mobile payments will increase. We saw a number of articles validating this one, including the Wall St. Journal ("Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic"), New York Times ("Many Competing Paths on the Road to the Phone Wallet"), Fortune cover story: "The Death of Cash: Tech giants - and startups like Square - want you to use your phone to pay for everything from gum to train rides. Here's how they plan to achieve cash-free nirvana." We predicted that e-wallets would be mainstream in five years but we may move that up to four years, based on the kind of media coverage we've been seeing.  Grade: A.

3.     Videoconferencing will continue to hit its stride. We still believe we’re right but we expect videoconferencing to make further inroads.  Grade: B based on a lack of strong media coverage.

We'll issue more grades in Monday's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Fortune Validates

Back in Feb., we issued the prediction that focus on mobile payments would increase.

Last month, Fortune joined the New York Times and Wall St. Journal and other top-tier media in validating our prediction. Check out the cover story: "The Death of Cash: Tech giants - and startups like Square - want you to use your phone to pay for everything from gum to train rides. Here's how they plan to achieve cash-free nirvana."

We predicted that e-wallets would be mainstream in five years but we may move that up to four years, based on the kind of media coverage we've been seeing.

New York Times Validates Cashless Wallet Prediction

Back in Feb., we issued the prediction that focus on mobile payments would increase, saying:

Spearheaded by Google Wallet, Visa's V.me, and Verizon, 2012 looks to be a big year for mobile commerce. Using your smartphone to make purchases will not attract most Americans this year, but a growing part of the population will love the convenience of not having to find an ATM or not paying fees to use another bank system’s ATM. You can delay the day our society becomes a cashless one, but eventually going cash free will be mainstream by the end of the decade.

Last month, the Wall St. Journal article validated our prediction in an article entitled, "Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic." The big issues for adoption by retailers are potential security and privacy issues.

Yesterday, the New York Times validated our prediction, too, in an article entitled, "Many Competing Paths on the Road to the Phone Wallet." According to the Times, "The idea of using a smartphone as a wallet has been slow to catch on in the United States," and that "a big part of the problem has been that most stores do not have the proper physical equipment to allow customers to pay by tapping their phone."

That will change, the Times noted, due to "heavy pressure to upgrade their payment terminals to accept smart cards. Over the past few months, Visa, Discover and MasterCard have said that merchants that cannot accept these cards will be liable for any losses owing to fraud."

Check out the rest of the article for more details. But what that means is that the adoption trend for mobile payments will increase significantly.  Some analysts and industry players believe that mobile payments -- powered by near-field communications (a technology standard to connect devices like smartphones by bringing them into close proximity with other devices) -- will be mainstream in five years.

That's five years ahead of our prediction, but that's okay with us.

WSJ Validates our Cashless Payments Prediction

One of our predictions this year is that mobile payments will increase, and that "spearheaded by Google Wallet, Visa's V.me, and Verizon, 2012 looks to be a big year for mobile commerce."

Perhaps Wal-Mart and Target read our predictions published in Feb., but a Wall St. Journal article reported, "Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic," The big issues for adoption by retailers are potential security and privacy issues.

So looks like another point on the Trend-Validation Board for us.