Wall St. Journal Validates Our Privacy Predictions

As part of our measurement process in looking at our annual forecast, we keep track of how we do -- did we get things right? Did we miss things?

As part of the ongoing news stories we think will generate coverage in 2014, we picked privacy along with cybercrime. The ever-increasing numbers of Target customers affected by the hackers -- well, that unfortunately validates the cybercrime story angle.

But the Wall St. Journal, which closely following the privacy story over the past two years, continues to think it important to understand the crossroads between marketing and privacy. The latest article validates our privacy prediction. Check out "What Secrets Your Phone Is Sharing About You; Businesses Use Sensors to Track Customers, Build Shopper Profiles."

So far, looks like we're doing well in terms of our forecast. Of course, we did not identify a scandal involving the Christie Administration and traffic shutdown on the George Washington Bridge so we do miss some big stories.

Let us know what you think about privacy, cybercrime or any other trend.

Bitcoin Already a Hot Topic in 2014 -- Validates Another Prediction

In our annual trends and predictions, we identified Bitcoin as being a hot, ongoing topic in 2014.  We said:

Bitcoin and cashless payments will continue to generate interest. We’ve seen a rise in interest in bitcoins, and it appears bitcoins may be on the edge of going mainstream. We don’t think that will happen in 2014 but we do think the topic will get discussed.

But more retailers are evaluating whether or not to accept Bitcoins for payment, and already there's been a lot of coverage about bitcoins: such as:

• Yahoo Tech: "Okay, Seriously: What The Heck Is Bitcoin, And Why Do So Many People Prefer It To Dollars And Cents?"
• Bloomberg BusinessWeek: "Bitcoin Woos Washington to Ensure Lawmakers Don’t Kill Industry"
• Forbes: "Taxing Bitcoin: IRS Review Has Big Implications For Investors In Virtual Currency"
•  USA Today: "Ask Matt: Should I invest in Bitcoin?"

And those are just within two hours of when I was writing this post.

We still don't think most consumers will pay with Bitcoins in 2014 but more retailers will announce they accept it for payment in 2014 -- as a way to highlight their being on the cutting-edge.

Meanwhile, we also saw another story prediction get validation. In our list of ongoing tech trends we identified cognitive computing, led by IBM Watson, to score coverage. Here's a recent Wall St. Journal article: "IBM Struggles to Turn Watson Computer Into Big Business;Revenue Is Far From Company's Ambitious Targets."

New York Times

In our annual look at general news stories that will get covered by the media, we identified two story-angle predictions that have already been validated:

1. More interest in workplace diversity. Spurred by SNL's hiring of two black women comedians (at press time SNL had not hired any black comic/actress this season but we expect they will hire two black actresses), we think there will more attention paid to diversity in TV shows and movies, and that this could lead to a larger discussion about diversity in the non-celebrity-filled workplace. 
2. Growing Hispanic influence. This is a demographics story, one that will get mentioned a lot in the run up to the midterm elections, especially if immigration reform gets discussed.

The first prediction was validated by articles like "‘S.N.L.’ Hires Black Female Cast Member" when SNL hireed Sasheer Zamata, "a young sketch comedian who has been performing in the New York area for the last four years," according to the Times. We expect more coverage when Zamata makes her debut. We continue to think SNL will hire a second Black comedienne. Further, we think the media will continue to ask questions about on-screen diversity. 

Also, earlier this week, the Times reported on a "New Agency, a Spinoff, Will Aim Its Message at a Hispanic Audience." We continue to expect to hear more about the importance of Hispanics as coverage of the midterm elections cranks up.

Please let us know if you disagree with any of our predictions for 2014 or if we missed something important.

NY Times' David Carr Validates Media Still Distabilized Prediction

In our annual set of predictions, we said 

The media businesshas not stabilized... (and) publishers still have not found a sustainable business model.  

That prediction was validated earlier this week by media columnist David Carr in his article: "Print Starts to Settle Into Its Niches." Check it out about a look at Kevin Kelly's return to print book publishing.

Also, the Times validated "The Internet of Things" prediction and the one we made about the challenge of selling TVs when people are watching on devices. Check out "‘Smart TVs’ Are Next Bet for Makers as Sales Languish."

CES and Wall St. Journal Validates Our Prediction about the Internet of Things

In our annual set of predictions, we said that the Internet of Things -- Internet-connected devices -- will get attention in 2014. Check out our prediction here.

If there's a theme for this year's CES, it seems to be the Internet of Things. Check out this Wall St. Journal article: 'Internet of Things' in Reach; Companies Rush Into Devices Like Smart Door Locks, Appliances, but Limitations Exist and Smartwatches Pop Up All Over CES; Electronics Show Has New or Updated Devices From Pebble, Kreyos, Archos and Samsung.

Also the Journal validated our prediction about cybercrime: "Companies on Guard for New Legal Pitfalls;Cybercrime, Labor Rules, Financial Penalties Add to General Counsels' Concerns."

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2014, Part VII: Ongoing News Stories

Each year we provide a list of stories the media will continue to cover, which include:

1. Obamacare and midterm elections will be the never-ending stories in 2014.  Healthcare.gov seems to have turned a corner from its rough start but given midterm elections, the state of Obamacare will clearly be a never-ending story. Implications: Not so much a story that clients will want to touch, but it will generate attention from reporters and bloggers. 
2. Deficits, spending cuts, taxes, etc.: As with healthcare, expect that editorial and op-ed pages as well as political radio and TV shows will be littered with opposing perspectives of the steps the country should take. Debate may be worthwhile but don't expect Congress to be any less dysfunctional. 
3. Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: We’ve picked this as one of the most important trends of the decade so expect a lot of reporting about this throughout 2014. 
4. Privacy and security will continue to be issues that only experts care about. Experts will talk about the death of online privacy but actual users don't really care. They will continue to post information about themselves because we live in a culture of documentation, in which MIT professor Sherry Turkle observes that our experiences don't seem to matter if we don't actually share them via Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc. That said, we expect continued coverage of privacy issues, especially connected to the NSA or advertisers even though strangers can access information about where they live, where and when they travel, what they buy, etc. We also expect that cyberattacks and cyber warfare will continue to generate coverage in 2014 and beyond. Implications: From a privacy perspective, we think there could be a backlash if the big data about consumers' habits that are being shared with advertisers enables too much contact that makes advertisers appear "creepy." 
5. Bitcoin and cashless payments will continue to generate interest. We’ve seen a rise in interest in bitcoins, and it appears bitcoins may be on the edge of going mainstream. We don’t think that will happen in 2014 but we do think the topic will get discussed. Meanwhile we continue to expect digital wallets or e-wallets to go mainstream in 2016. As we get closer, we expect there to be articles comparing bitcoin vs. Google Wallet vs. Isis (from AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile), focusing on security and privacy issues around each standard. 
6. Star Wars: Currently scheduled for a 2015 release, the next Star Wars movie will be cool but, even with director JJ Abrams at the helm, it may not live up to fanboys’ overactive imaginations. Meanwhile, expect Comic-Cons 2014 and 2015 to get major coverage.

Thanks for staying with us. That's the end of our list of predictions for 2014 -- though we may add more. After all, it's still early in the year!

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V or Part VI.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2014, Part VI: General News Stories

Here's our list of general news stories we expect to see in 2014.

1. More interest in workplace diversity. Spurred by SNL's hiring of two black women comedians (at press time SNL had not hired any black comic/actress this season but we expect they will hire two black actresses), we think there will more attention paid to diversity in TV shows and movies, and that this could lead to a larger discussion about diversity in the non-celebrity-filled workplace. 
2. Growing Hispanic influence. This is a demographics story, one that will get mentioned a lot in the run up to the midterm elections, especially if immigration reform gets discussed. 
3. Real estate market. Along with the retail sector, the media likes to look at real estate to determine how the economy is really going.  Expect a look at renters v. owners, and the impact of housing prices across the country. We also expect more interest in urban real estate as companies will say goodbye to the 'burbs to attract qualified employees. 
4. The new Thanksgiving tradition is shopping on Thanksgiving.  As much as we don't like it, from here on in, the Christmas shopping season will probably start Thanksgiving Day. Implications: This changes retail stories told in Q3. 
5. Stock market and the biotech bubble. 2014 will be marked by concerns about the health of the stock market. Of the different sectors, rising biotech shares will generate growing concern of a biotech bubble. That concern will affect all parts of the industry, especially startups as VCs start getting nervous about their portfolios. Implications: There’s not much publicly held companies can do – except, as a Forbes reporter once told us, have you company “do better…and boost its share price.” We just think it’s important to understand how editors allocate their resources (reporters’ time and the outlets’ news hole).

Tomorrow we'll issue our list of ongoing (continuing from 2013) news stories we expect to see.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV or Part V.