USA Today Validates Our Prediction about Space & Space Junk

Back on January 15, we published our "Additional Set of Predictions for 2020: A Baker's Dozen of Tech Trends," in which we said: 

"There will be a lot of media space allocated to covering outer space...Meanwhile we also expect coverage about political and legal issues of space as well as articles about things that just a few years ago would have flown under the radar (we've really been trying not to make space puns) such as the growing awareness that too many satellites are causing a traffic jam in space. This space jam began to get recognition as a potential problem in space in 2019 but we think it will get more recognition in 2020. The risk of collisions among satellites is a problem."

On Jan. 28, USA Today wrote: "Heads up: Two satellites might collide in space 559 miles above Pittsburgh."

By NASA JPL - http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/galleries/galleryspacecraft/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=33645603

Update: Since we first published this blog, The Atlantic published an article, "The Night Sky Will Never Be the Same: Elon Musk’s plan for worldwide internet has sent bright artificial, lights streaking through the dark" that also validates our prediction. The Atlantic looks at Starlink, described as "a floating scaffold" that Musk "hopes will someday provide high-speed internet to every part of the world." The problem: 

"These satellites have turned out to be far more reflective than anyone, even SpaceX engineers, expected. Before Starlink, there were about 200 objects in orbit around Earth that could be seen with the unaided eye. In less than a year, SpaceX has added another 240. 'These are brighter than probably 99 percent of existing objects in Earth orbit right now,' says Pat Seitzer, a professor emeritus at the University of Michigan who studies orbital debris."

You might say, so big deal about this prediction? What can we do about this problem. We think it's interesting for several reasons:

1. This was a topic that was mostly ignored a few years ago. In Feb. 1, 2017, Popular Science published an article about space junk, "If Earth's orbit is so crowded, why don't we see space junk in photos of the Earth?" The article acknowledge a problem with space junk but not the aspect of collisions, and that was just three years ago.
2. There seems to be more interest in space (and not because of the U.S. Space Force). Awareness of space junk is probably a good thing. What we really need is a solution. There could be a business in decluttering old, useless satellites still in orbit.
3. From a media perspective, one article may reinforce another reporter filing another story. This is how media bandwagons start, and it may encourage governments and businesses to find a way to remove space junk.

Bitcoin Already a Hot Topic in 2014 -- Validates Another Prediction

In our annual trends and predictions, we identified Bitcoin as being a hot, ongoing topic in 2014.  We said:

Bitcoin and cashless payments will continue to generate interest. We’ve seen a rise in interest in bitcoins, and it appears bitcoins may be on the edge of going mainstream. We don’t think that will happen in 2014 but we do think the topic will get discussed.

But more retailers are evaluating whether or not to accept Bitcoins for payment, and already there's been a lot of coverage about bitcoins: such as:

• Yahoo Tech: "Okay, Seriously: What The Heck Is Bitcoin, And Why Do So Many People Prefer It To Dollars And Cents?"
• Bloomberg BusinessWeek: "Bitcoin Woos Washington to Ensure Lawmakers Don’t Kill Industry"
• Forbes: "Taxing Bitcoin: IRS Review Has Big Implications For Investors In Virtual Currency"
•  USA Today: "Ask Matt: Should I invest in Bitcoin?"

And those are just within two hours of when I was writing this post.

We still don't think most consumers will pay with Bitcoins in 2014 but more retailers will announce they accept it for payment in 2014 -- as a way to highlight their being on the cutting-edge.

Meanwhile, we also saw another story prediction get validation. In our list of ongoing tech trends we identified cognitive computing, led by IBM Watson, to score coverage. Here's a recent Wall St. Journal article: "IBM Struggles to Turn Watson Computer Into Big Business;Revenue Is Far From Company's Ambitious Targets."

USA Today Validates Cord Cutting Prediction

Just to help us to keep track for our end-of-year- report card on our trends, USA Today recently wrote about cord cutting.

Check out the article: "Are you ready to cut the cord? As many drop their cable provider in favor of streaming, is cutting the cord worth it?"

Personally, I think the number of services you need to subscribe to ends up being more complicated and incomplete -- though still less expensive on a monthly basis. Hulu Plus, Netflix and Amazon come to $22 per month (if you exclude Netflix's DVD-by-mail service). If you cut the cord, you lose access to live programing but you save $80 per month. That's a lot of money you can save if you don't mind an imperfect solution.

Over the next 18 months, given devices like the new Xbox One (See USA Today article: "How the Apple TV can compete with Xbox One"), which aim to be an all-in-one entertainment box for your living room, we think more people will consider cutting the cord.

One question is will services like HBO, Showtime and Cinemax, which all have apps for cable subscribers, will open up access to non-cable subscribers. How much would streaming customers be willing to pay for Game of Thrones?

USA Today Validates Our "Made in the USA" Prediction

As part of our "ongoing stories" we expect to see in 2013, we said we expect that "Made in the USA," involving reporting that companies "are bringing back manufacturing jobs to the U.S."

We said, "As costs in India, China, Russia and Brazil increase, expect that the benefits out offshore outsourcing may decline enough to make it more attractive to bring some manufacturing back home. Look for stories about small manufacturers whose business is growing as a result."

Subsequently, USA Today wrote an article, "Some manufacturers say 'adios' to China." Check out the USA Today article.

We also expect that some of the coverage to manufacturing in the U.S. will discuss security concerns of doing business in China.

Wall St. Journal Sees Increase in Circulation

A bit of good news for print media. The Wall St. Journal said its circulation had increase to 2.02 million, including print and online subscriptions. USA Today has been the long-time circulation champ in the U.S., but saw its circulation drop slightly to 1.9 million.

About 356,000 people subscribe to the Journal online. It's unclear how many of those also subscribe to the print edition (as I do).

It's also important to note that the Journal's increase occurred even with a price increase -- but it's also important to note that the online subscription rate is significantly lower than the print subscription rate. So you can't estimate the revenue figure just from 2.02 million subscribers. Yet the Journal is one of a handful of sites to successfully charge t for online content.

It may not matter to the Audit Bureau of Circulation, which monitors and certifies circulation figures, but I think advertisers might care about the overlap in print and online subscribers.
I wonder if my two subscriptions should count as if two people are receiving the paper. Some days I don't touch the printed version, some days, I don't log onto wsj.com. I pay twice, but I'm not two people so advertisers paying on that basis are being mislead.