Boston Globe Validates Predictions about Cashless Payments and Gender Roles

In our annual predictions, we said that as part of "ongoing stories" that we expect to get a lot of coverage in 2013, we identified these two:

• Salaries paid women vs. men

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•  Cashless payments

Yesterday, the Boston Globe validated both of those predictions.  The "salaries paid women vs. men" stories has actually shifted already to address on women's roles in the office. Part of the reason for that shift is the result of interest in Yahoo's CEO, Marissa Mayer, who recently gave birth and returned from a brief maternity leave. More significantly, Facebook's COO, Sheryl Sandberg, has generated tons of coverage as the result of her book, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead. (Incidentally, "Lean In" was one of the phrases we identified last year as a candidate for most overused phrase.) The whole focus on women and the office will continue to generate buzz this year, even after buzz for Sandberg's book dissipates.

Meanwhile, check out these two front-page Globe articles, which validate our prediction about women and salaries, and were published under the banner: "Crunch hits single mothers hard": 

• Gloria Steinem’s message about gender, then and now  
• Single-mother families struggling in Mass.

(Meanwhile, taking an opposite angle, the New York Times yesterday reported, "Study of Men’s Falling Income Cites Single Parents." The point: it seems that some gender issues are taking on more significance in the media.)

As for the cashless payments predictions, the Globe also reported: "Not paying by smartphone? You soon will, many bet." While this all seems relatively new to U.S. companies, two of our international clients prefer to pay electronically; in fact, the CFO of one international client told me earlier this week that he can't remember the last time he saw a check! We said we expect cashless payments to become mainstream by 2016 but it may happen sooner (based on comments like that CFOs, since it seems Europe has already embraced cashless payments). Perhaps that time will come by 2015.

What do you think?

USA Today Validates Our "Made in the USA" Prediction

As part of our "ongoing stories" we expect to see in 2013, we said we expect that "Made in the USA," involving reporting that companies "are bringing back manufacturing jobs to the U.S."

We said, "As costs in India, China, Russia and Brazil increase, expect that the benefits out offshore outsourcing may decline enough to make it more attractive to bring some manufacturing back home. Look for stories about small manufacturers whose business is growing as a result."

Subsequently, USA Today wrote an article, "Some manufacturers say 'adios' to China." Check out the USA Today article.

We also expect that some of the coverage to manufacturing in the U.S. will discuss security concerns of doing business in China.

NYT & WSJ Validate Our Cyberattack Prediction

For the last two years, we've predicted that cybercrime, cyberattacks and cyberwarfare would be top ongoing stories.

We'd rather not be right about this. And we don't want clients to be involved -- just prepared that this is a topic that the media will cover.

Nonetheless, here are two recent New York Times and Wall St. Journal headlines that validate our predictions:

• Wall St. Journal: U.S. Official Cites Cyberattack Risks
• New York Times:  Security Leader Says U.S. Would Retaliate Against Cyberattacks

As background, in our predictions for 2013's"Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media," we wrote:

Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: We said this was a growing issue in 2012, and we maintain that's the case for the rest of the decade. There will be a lot of articles about China as a source for cyberespionage and policy articles about how the U.S. should protect itself from its largest creditor. Expect regular front-page coverage about the latest exploits against the U.S. and U.S. companies. A big concern: our security and intelligence agencies don't have enough trained personnel to protect against and prevent cyber attacks against the U.S. and American businesses; and they lack the resources to fully identify and prosecute cybercriminals. We also expect to see a rise in the number of stories about cyberstalking and “revenge porn,” where jilted exes post incriminating (and often false) information as a way to get back at former spouses, lovers, and friends.

Wall St. Journal Looks at iPhone vs. Galaxy

One of the tech battlegrounds we've predicted that will get a lot of media attention this year is the battle between Apple and Samsung.

More recently, I wrote an analysis that looked at the implications for this battle at least for Apple: "What Are the Implications for Apple if Samsung's Latest Smartphone Eclipses the iPhone?"

Interestingly, the next day, the Wall St. Journal reported, "Apple, on Defense, Slams Samsung."

Apple is not used to playing defense so it will be interesting to see how it responds to a serious threat to the iPhone and ultimately to its iPad supremacy.

Stay tuned (as they used to say).

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part XII

Ongoing Tech Trends we expect to continue 

• Cloud computing: This trend started in 2010 and quickly became mainstream. 
• The battle of tablets: After several years of breathless media coverage, the battle for tablet supremacy began when Apple, recognizing a vulnerability in its product line, launched the iPad Mini. Last year, we said it was a two-horse race between iPads and the Kindle Fire but expect a third player to gain traction – enter the Samsung Galaxy. This story has just begun. 
• Gaming for business:  Gaming will continue to be integrated into business and training apps to keep people engaged and entertained. 
• Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues to go mainstream…until big data is supplanted by the next data trend. 
• Consumerization of enterprise apps: Enterprise apps had been hard-to-use but the mobile and BYOD trends has meant that formerly ugly enterprise apps now must be intuitive and easy to use. This push for ease of use also comes from the millennials, who expect enterprise apps to work like consumer apps. 
• Hybrid IT: Part on premise, part in the cloud: Companies need the best of both cloud computing and on-premise technology. We see this as a hot tech trends. 
• Second screens: Increasingly people watch television programs with their tablets, too, so they can comment real-time on what they’re watching. Helping customers express themselves and buy while they’re watching TV is going to be an important from a marketing perspective in the coming years. 
• Infographics: We expect companies to use infographics – visual representations of information like survey data – to make information shareable via social media but we don’t expect print media to reprint corporate inforgraphics because they typically take up too much of a user’s screen, particularly on smartphones. That doesn’t mean infographics are not worth producing, it just means B2B companies need to be realistic in terms of goals for their use.

Let us know if you agree or disagree with these or any other in our series. While this is a long list -- we could have probably broken them out into smaller individual sections , we felt that a dozen was enough -- this is not meant to be comprehensive, especially since trends pop up. For example, there's the "Harlem Shake" YouTube meme, which we haven't addressed (in part because when we created this list in January, the "Harlem Shake" hadn't gone mainstream). Or Pope Benedict's resignation and the appointment of Pope Francis -- clearly a top religion story for the year.
 
For our previous installments of our predictions, click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part I"),  Part VIII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part II"), Part IX ("Premature Deathwatch, Part III"), Part X ("Ongoing stories, Part I") or Part XI ("Ongoing stories, Part II").

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part XI

Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media, Part II. 

• Salaries paid women vs. men. There were a few articles percolating in 2012 that men continue to get paid more than women for the same jobs. We think there’s a good chance that this issue will rightfully garner more attention in 2013. 
• Cashless payments. Last year, we said that digital wallets or e-wallets will would be mainstream by 2017. At the end of 2012, we moved that up to 2016. We continue to think there are security and behavioral, as well as technical, issues to be addressed but we do think that e-wallets that are stored in your phone make sense. We now rarely go anywhere (including, ugh, the bathroom) without our phones, and we already use our smartphones to make purchases online so it makes sense that we will forgo carrying a wallet. Key issues that remain include: There are several competing e-wallets standards being developed by often fierce competitors who in some cases are working together – but they need to find a way they can work together; you don’t want to be in a situation where your Google Wallet doesn’t work because the retailer is using Isis from AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. Another key issue is the systems retailers will need to deploy to accept cashless payments; we’re not sure that Near Field Communications (NFC) readers will take off because of the additional cost to retailers. We expect the industry to solve this in order to facilitate the mainstreaming of e-wallets. 
• Crowdsourcing/daily deals: We think the media isn’t tired yet of reporting on interesting stories about companies that crowdsourced their way to success. But the bar has been raised because the fact that you’re crowdsourcing isn’t enough to generate coverage – your company has to be doing something else that’s relevant. Meanwhile, the daily deal business has lost buzz – we’re not saying it’s going away, just that there will be fewer stories about daily deal sites, with one exception. We expect coverage of Groupon from a business, management and share-price perspective. 
• Star Wars: Not the Reagan-era defense system, but the actual Star Wars. With the next installment of Star Wars expected to reach movie theatres in 2013 (assuming there will still be movies theatres, and that we're not all downloading the latest releases on our many devices), we can expect a growing number of articles and references in pop culture to JJ Abrams' next movie, including much speculation about the actors (will Harrison Ford reprise Han Solo?), the story, etc. 
• Fees: We don’t actually expect there to be a lot of coverage of how companies use fees to cover costs and raise revenues. However, we expect companies to continue to rely on fees on services they used to provide for free to boost their bottom lines.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part I"),  Part VIII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part II"), Part IX ("Premature Deathwatch, Part III") or Part X ("Ongoing stories, Part I").

What Are the Implications for Apple if Samsung's Latest Smartphone Eclipses the iPhone?

Earlier this week, the Wall St. Journal published "Samsung Trains Its Eye on the iPhone," an interesting article about Samsung, ahead of its launch of a new smartphone, the Galaxy S IV. 

This blog is not a reviews site so I'm not going to touch on the features of Samsung's new phone.

Instead, what interests me is how the media covers technology.

Two weeks ago, we posted our prediction that "We expect the media to report on several tech battles in 2013," including:

The battle among huge companies. Apple v. Google v. Samsung and Microsoft. Oracle v. Everyone Else. The media have a boxing ring mentality: They love to report on the battle between two competing companies. So we expect continued high level of coverage of Apple, Google, Samsung and Microsoft in their battle for supremacy. Of course, those four hypercompetitive companies are often battling other companies as well. (Yes, we've included this prediction in prior years – we feel that the media continues to be fascinated by this story and see no end in sight.) Interestingly, over the past year, Samsung has leveraged Android to become a major global player in the smartphone and tablet sectors, which is having an impact on both Apple (as an iPhone and iPad competitor) and on Google (since Samsung, as the de facto Android leader, could ask to renegotiate its agreements with Google, cutting Google’s margins).

What's interests me is that the print version of the article included this outtake: "Samsung is taking the battle for mobile to Apple's home turf," which was picked up in the body of the article.

For us, this validates not just the fact that the media would see the smartphone market as a story of two companies but that the media is framing that story as a battle between two companies.

Samsung has to know that much of the Galaxy S IV coverage will include mentions about Apple and the iPhone. 

For Apple, being included in most reviews of the Galaxy S IV is good -- because when reporters are writing about Apple it means less space for Samsung. But that's necessarily good if, as Fox's reported:"Galaxy S IV called Samsung's 'last act in Apple's shadow.'"

If there's a lot of coverage like Fox's, expect Apple to respond either by pushing up its announcement for the next generation of iPhones (the iPhone 5S?) to later in March or June (as had been rumored) or that Apple may keep its October launch date (also rumored) but pack the iPhone 6 with a bunch of new cool features. 

The point of skipping the iPhone 5S name is that it's hard to get fans excited about a phone that's only a half-step up from the prior version when your competitor has made significant advances.

What do you think?

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part X

Ongoing stories we’ll see covered in the media, Part I.  
Each year we provide a list of stories the media will continue to cover, which include: 
 

The implementation and implications of Obama care: What works, what doesn't; why it will take years to achieve its goals, why it won't achieve its goals; how healthcare delivery systems need to be revamped -- whatever your political beliefs and personal experiences, you can bet that you can see it expressed in an op-ed article somewhere and then countered by letters to the editor.

Gun control laws: Another very hot button political issue that will continue to generate coverage throughout the year. Also expect that reform of our mental health system to get a lot of coverage. (What hasn't received coverage to date is that part of the reason the mental health system was dismantled in the 1960s and 1970s was due to costs, not just abuses against patients in the system. The costs and privacy issues related to mental health reform should generate some coverage in 2013.) 

Deficits, spending cuts, taxes, etc.: As with healthcare, expect that editorial and op-ed pages as well as political radio and TV shows will be littered with opposing perspectives of the steps the country should take. Debate may be worthwhile but don't expect Congress to be any less dysfunctional. 

Made in the USA: bringing back manufacturing jobs to the US. As costs in India, China, Russia and Brazil increase, expect that the benefits out offshore outsourcing may decline enough to make it more attractive to bring some manufacturing back home. Look for stories about small manufacturers whose business is growing as a result. 

Cybercrime and cyberwarfare: We said this was a growing issue in 2012, and we maintain that's the case for the rest of the decade. There will be a lot of articles about China as a source for cyberespionage and policy articles about how the U.S. should protect itself from its largest creditor. Expect regular front-page coverage about the latest exploits against the U.S. and U.S. companies. A big concern: our security and intelligence agencies don't have enough trained personnel to protect against and prevent cyber attacks against the U.S. and American businesses; and they lack the resources to fully identify and prosecute cybercriminals. We also expect to see a rise in the number of stories about cyberstalking and “revenge porn,” where jilted exes post incriminating (and often false) information as a way to get back at former spouses, lovers, and friends. 

Privacy: Usually to be filed as Facebook and privacy, and what consumers should do to protect their privacy. But, despite the recent news that Kim Kardashian is quitting her reality show because she's ready to keep some aspects of her life private, expect two things: 1) Kardashian and boyfriend Kanye West will not keep photos of their soon-to-be born baby under wraps; and 2) Most of the rest of us will continue to abridge our own privacy by posting comments, updates and photos on a growing range of social media platforms.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part I"),  Part VIII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part II") or Part IX ("Premature Deathwatch, Part III").

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part IX

Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive, Part III   

o    The Office: Not the NBC sitcom, which will go off the air this year, but the need for offices as we’ve used them.  There have been a spate of illustrated articles portraying offices of the future based on the impact of new or nearly here technology – the result: articles that still play off the concept of the paperless office (see below) and office hoteling, a first-come, first-serve concept for allocating temporary office space within large companies that has been around for more than a decade. From our perspective, people love to hate their offices, and these articles that often depict an officeless future are more wish fulfillment than actual transformation. That said, current technologies like cloud computing and videoconferencing do facilitate working from locations other than from an office, and we’ve seen a steady increase in telecommuting and working from home, leading to articles about tech in bed – but for a lot of jobs, an office will remain necessary.

o    Paper: Back in June 1975, BusinessWeek published an article called “The Office of the Future” that included some prescient thoughts that have come true – like messages available on a “TV-display terminal with keyboard” – along with this: “Some believe that the paperless office is not that far off.” Some feel that the cloud will finally get rid of paper because you will be able to access your files everywhere so you won’t need paper. However, printed materials, including press kits and presentation folders, are still important ways to transmit information in ways that support and extend branding. Based on the clutter we see in many offices, we don’t think a paperless office is actually going to happen or that it’s necessarily a sign of progress (except for having less messy offices).

o    Social media gurus: Actually, this is not a media trend as much as it is a Twitter trend for people to identify themselves as social media gurus. One recent study reported there are 181,000 social media gurus, ninjas and mavens on Twitter. Most of the ones we see claim to be gurus and to be able to help you generate thousands of followers – yet, anecdotally, many so-called gurus have relatively few followers themselves.

o    Media relations: Social media is no longer just for early-adopting B2B companies but media relations continues to be important. By the end of the decade, both media relations and social media will converge into a single integrated effort.

 
Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part I") or Part VIII ("Premature Deathwatch, Part II").

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part VIII

Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive, Part II (Deathwatch Part I is available here.)

o    Landlines and cellphones that aren’t smartphones: The death of the landline has been foretold for several years. And while we know of some people who have given up their landline and only use a cellphone, and even more people who maintain a landline but never check their landline’s voicemail, the vast majority of Americans continue to own a landline even if they don’t use it regularly. What’s saving the landline? Packages that combine phone, Internet and cable offerings and because a landline is probably the cheapest communications service most of us use. As for dumb phones, they’ll continue as long as parents want to equip their kids with a phone for emergencies but one that won’t distract them as a smartphone will.

o    Press releases: Reporters have been wishing for press releases to die just as VCs have been wishing the death of PowerPoint so that they never have to be bored again in another pitch meeting. Despite social media, there’s still a place and a value to press releases.

o    CES: Last year we said CES was being supplanted by SXSW, which focuses more on social media and apps. We stand by that but we don’t think CES is dead, it’s just declining in impact. There were far fewer articles and broadcast stories covering the latest CES tech but CES still gets covered (even if to say how boring it was).

o    Privacy: Facebook and most social media has basically killed off the traditional definition of privacy -- nothing new about that. But pundits proclaim privacy is dead overlook the fact that each time Facebook revises its privacy policies, there's often media coverage and a negative response. (Of course, the negative response has never stopped Facebook.)

 
Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI or Part VII.