Track Record for Predictions for 2013, Part IV

Here are our grades for Part IV of our predictions:

Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive.  Reporters and bloggers like to write is the purported death of various, usually popular items, devices or technology. Here’s a list we predicted would be proclaimed dead, and how accurate we were:

o    e-Readers: The Wall St. Journal, among others declared e-Readers as on the way out. We disagreed, and feel dedicated e-readers are doing fine, thanks. Grade: B+.

o    Flash: It’s probably on the way out but it’s not dead yet. Grade: B+.

o    PCs: Sales are declining but businesses continue to rely on PCs. That’s not going to change until tablets are more on par with PCs in terms of capabilities and performance Meanwhile, Deloitte says “larger screens and keyboards go a long way toward explaining the PC’s enduring popularity not only for work-related tasks, but also for watching videos.” Grade: B+.

o    Cable TV: More people may want to be cord-cutters but doing so requires more patience than a lot of people have. Cable TV subscribers will decline but many will stay as cable continues to improve the viewing experience on devices other than TV sets. Grade: B+

o    3D TVs and 3D glasses: We said that 3D glasses for the living room use is dying but 3D TVs are not yet dead but we’re not sure about the 3D TVs’ future. Grade: C+.

o    Blu-ray machines and DVDs: Blu-ray player sales were up 3 percent on Black Friday, according to Home Media Magazine. That’s pretty good for technology that was written off (by others) as being dead. Grade: B+.

o    Radio: There may be a lot of alternative apps to traditional radio, but radio continues on. Grade: A.

o    Landlines and cellphones that aren’t smartphones: These are not dead yet, either. Grade: A.

o    Press releases: Despite social media, there’s still a place and a value to press releases. Grade: A.

o    CES: No less than star consumer review David Pogue (formerly of the New York Times) called CES 2013: "Spicing Up a Ho-Hum Tech Show." Grade: A+.

o    Privacy: After leaks and NSA spying (neither of which we predicted), privacy continues to be a big issue. Grade: A.

o    The Office: We were talking about the need for offices as we’ve used them (not the NBC comedy “The Office).  According to a Wall St. Journal article, "Say Goodbye to the Office Cubicle; Walls Come Down as Many Companies Switch to Layouts Designed to Foster Collaboration," one of the companies that helped "spawn the cubicle craze more than 40 years ago" is "turning a profit these days by trying to kill it off." Bottom line: we still need offices. Grade: A.

o    Paper: We’re still a way from being paperless, nearly 40 years from the time BusinessWeek published an article claiming we would go paperless. Grade: A.

o    Social media gurus: This was one area that we felt was ready for the deathwatch, noting “Most of the ones we see claim to be gurus and to be able to help you generate thousands of followers – yet, anecdotally, many so-called gurus have relatively few followers themselves.” Not a lot of media coverage but a lot of social media backlash to self-proclaimed gurus. Grade: B+.

o    Media relations: We said, “Social media is no longer just for early-adopting B2B companies but media relations continues to be important. By the end of the decade, both media relations and social media will converge into a single integrated effort.” We stand by that. Grade: B.

We'll post the another set of grades tomorrow. In the meantime, you can also check out our 2014, starting here.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part VII

 Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive, Part I 

·         One type of story reporters and bloggers like to write is the purported death of various, usually popular items, devices or technology. PowerPoint to email to texting and beyond have been proclaimed dead, even as those technologies continue to be used. We suspect these death wishes are a backlash to ubiquity combined with enormous frustration with the tech itself. The list of tech whose reported death is an exaggeration seems destined to grow larger with every year so here are candidates for 2013:

o    e-Readers: Just as ebooks are outselling hardcopy books, we expect a backlash affect saying that e-readers are dead because of the iPad and the iPad Mini. Yet we think e-readers will continue to sell because they weigh less and are easier to hold than tablets and because their screens are designed to be read in full sunlight (something you can’t do on an iPad).

o    Flash: Because of the popularity of Apple devices that are designed not to use Flash, some people have predicted Flash’s death. But there are still a lot of PCs out there that can use Flash. We say it’s not dead yet.

o    PCs: Last year, we said we expected that Post-PC would be a term we’d hear a lot – and we did – but though PC sales are declining, there’s still some life in PCs yet. There are still some things that you can do more easily and efficiently on a PC than a tablet so don’t write them off – just yet.  We think Ultrabooks and devices like Microsoft’s Surface Pro (part-PC/part-tablet) will continue to be in use through the end of the decade.

o    Cable TV: With all the articles about cord-cutting, you’d think all households were abandoning cable. That’s not the case, exactly. There are still programming like sports and local TV that you can’t easily get via Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc. And if you have to pay for all the streaming services to replicate cable, you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated when you cobble together different services and that you’ll wind up paying several hundred bucks a year. 

o    3D TVs and 3D glasses: Though it was the much hyped tech from last year’s CES, 3D TVs never took off. The reason: There’s just not enough 3D content available to make it worth purchasing 3D TVs.  A year later, there’s still not enough 3D content, and it doesn’t look like much is being developed, except for some 3D movies, which also aren’t meeting expectations. But if 3D movies didn’t die in the 1950s, when they were pioneered, we bet that 3D isn’t completely dead. Another reason people proclaim the death of 3D TVs is the launch of 4K and OLED TVs, which offer ultra high definition screens the size of entire walls. However, those UHD sets are also ultra expensive so we don’t expect to see them in everyone’s living room for some time. Please note: we do think 3D glasses for living room use is dead.

o    Blu-ray machines and DVDs: Typically the deaths of Blu-ray and DVDs are proclaimed for the same root cause: people prefer to stream video rather than own DVDs that can be scratched and destroyed and can only be played on certain devices (like Blu-ray players) that you can’t easily take with you everywhere.  But the fact is lots of people own lots of DVDs, and we don’t think people are going to be willing to throw their collections into the scrap heap of history just yet. Besides, DVDs offer featurettes that you can’t access from streaming video sites, which is often why people buy DVDs of their favorite movies. Also, for some households, the easiest way to access the streaming sites is through their Blu-ray players so don’t them out just yet. On the other hand, you don’t need Blu-ray quality when you’re streaming video.

o    Radio: Funny thing is that radio was supposed to have died years ago. In 1979, the Buggles hit the charts with their one hit, “Video Killed the Radio Star,” referencing a time in 1952 when radio was supposed to have died. Yet radio continues on, even in an era of iTunes.  That’s not true of cassette tapes, as evidenced that no new cars come equipped with tape players and that last year Sony actually stopped producing the Walkman, its pioneering portable music player. We’ll know radio is dead when car manufacturers stop including radios in new cars. But until that time, consider radio’s death to be premature. (Sorry, Buggles, whatever you’re doing now, certainly not, as they sang, playing their VCR.)

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V or Part VI.

Does Radio Have a Future?

I was speaking to a friend, whose the host of a national radio program, and she said all they talk about -- they being the executives at her company -- is the future of radio. And whether there is a future for radio in an iPod world.

As it is, there's the MikeFM format, where they play random sets of music that seems to recreate someone's iPod playlist.

In my own experience, I saw (or heard) how my kids did not listen to radio. One of them used to ask me to turn off the radio (perhaps it was my choice of music).

Now, they ask me to turn on the radio as soon as I turn on the car. They're really into it now -- which may bode well for the future of radio. But they only like to listen when we're driving. (Is it so they don't have to talk with me?)

According to Vivian Schiller, president of NPR, radio has a future, and its evolving away from broadcast towers. And programmers need to make sure they're evolving how they deliver radio content. Check out an interview with her from the All Things D Conference, "Why Online Won't Kill the Radio Star; Vivian Schiller of NPR on how public radio can thrive in the digital age."

Fast Company on the Future of Podcasts

Will podcasts replace radio? Fast Company's current issue profiles Adam Carolla in "How Adam Carolla Became a Podcast Superstar."

Interestingly, the article claims that Carolla is making money through his podcasts yet ends the article by quoting Carolla as saying:

"I would have a hard time calling myself a pioneer, sitting around talking while Donny records it and puts it on the Internet," he tells me on the ride back to his house. But the outsidery angst that his fans adore is part of the equation. It's tough to be first. "Think of all those guys who played for the NFL in the '40s and '50s," he says, looming perilously close to a rant. "They made $7,000 a year and had to work at car dealerships in the off-season," he says, pulling into his driveway. "Maybe we'll spend a bunch of money and time, and 20 years later... ." He pauses, does the math. "Ashton Kutcher will get rich off what we thought of. I don't know."

So is Carolla making money? Will podcasts replace radio? The shuffle music format seen on some stations like MikeFM in Boston, Lansing and other markets. in which they play everything, seems like it could be easily replaced by hooking your iPod to your car's radio. If you do that, then podcasts could attract listeners who otherwise might listen to radio.

I'm still a believer in (and a listener of) radio. But I'm not sure if my children will be. I think podcasts, like other online content, will have to charge subscriptions because advertising revenue alone won't support podcasts. But I do think radio stations will have to consider charging for online content they provide.

In the meantime, check on the sidebar to the Carolla article, "A Look at the Ever-Expanding Podcast Universe." It provides a good overview.

Prediction #7: Video May Have Killed the Radio Star but Radio Will Continue to Survive -- For Now

But in two years, we may not be making the same prediction. Today's kids do not listen to radio as much as previous generations did. They listen to iPods and soon, iPads.

We believe that radio continues to be important, especially during drive-time commutes. We think record companies should continue to support radio stations because people still listen to radio to discover new songs and then decide to download songs (or buy CDs, if they're boomers) based on what they hear on the radio.

But because today's children are not getting in the habit of listening to radio, and because today's homes are less likely to have radios other than as part of a stereo system, radio stations are going to need to find ways to reach and cultivate new listeners.

That's where record companies can come in, to their mutual benefit. Of course, radio may survive during increasingly long commute times since more states have enacted laws that prohibit texting while driving or require drivers to use hands-free technology when using their cellphones.

Why Should Organizations Engage via Social Media? Because that's where the people are

Willie Sutton said he robbed banks because that's where the money is.

For organizations wondering why to get involved in social media, the reason to do so is that that's where the people are.

Fewer of them are watching broadcast TV...certainly on a television set. There are people watching programs via their computer but that seems to be a one-to-one experience as opposed to watching TV sets, where it's more likely that other people will be there, too.

Far fewer of them are reading print newspapers and magazines.

They're listening to radio primarily during drive-time. And in a few years, they won't even be doing that. (The current generation of kids don't listen to the radio. Some estimate that radio's audience will fade away in five years. I don't necessarily agree, but I do see that my own kids never listen to the radio at home -- in fact, we only have two radios at home, and one's in my office, so it's not really convenient for them -- and they don't listen often in the car. It's just not going to develop into habit for them.)

Instead, more people are online, reading newspapers and magazines (mostly for free), listening to music, watching television shows...and interacting with other people via social media.

According to a recent BrandWeek article, "MySpace Suffers as Time on Facebook, Twitter Rises," "Social networking as a whole has been on a roll, according to Nielsen figures. Total time spent on social networking sites increased 81 percent compared to a year earlier."

That's significant.

If you're not part of it, you're missing out.

Is Internet Killing the Radio Star?

In 1979, one-hit wonders the Boggles wrote "Video Killed the Radio Star," which became the first video shown on MTV.

People have been predicting the death of radio ever since.

Yet, radio continues to hold on.

The New York Times ran a brief article, "Radio’s Popularity Declining Unevenly," that looks at the radio listenership. Given all the competition from old media, new media and MP3 players, radio listnership has fallen only 14 percent over the past decade.

Meanwhile, while I don't have specific numbers in front of me, network TV viewership over that time period has declined at much more significant numbers.

Radio's not dead yet...especially while Americans drive in their cars.

And neither is network TV...though it may be hurt by the fact that real-time TV is not widely available in cars (not that drivers should be watching). (Disclosure, a former client makes satellite dishes for cars and boats.) Also, networks need to figure a way to aggregate numbers based on real-time viewership, time-delayed vewiership (like TiVo), and web-based downloads. I bet network TV's decline would not be as significant if looked at that way.