Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part VII

 Premature deathwatch of things that are very much alive, Part I 

·         One type of story reporters and bloggers like to write is the purported death of various, usually popular items, devices or technology. PowerPoint to email to texting and beyond have been proclaimed dead, even as those technologies continue to be used. We suspect these death wishes are a backlash to ubiquity combined with enormous frustration with the tech itself. The list of tech whose reported death is an exaggeration seems destined to grow larger with every year so here are candidates for 2013:

o    e-Readers: Just as ebooks are outselling hardcopy books, we expect a backlash affect saying that e-readers are dead because of the iPad and the iPad Mini. Yet we think e-readers will continue to sell because they weigh less and are easier to hold than tablets and because their screens are designed to be read in full sunlight (something you can’t do on an iPad).

o    Flash: Because of the popularity of Apple devices that are designed not to use Flash, some people have predicted Flash’s death. But there are still a lot of PCs out there that can use Flash. We say it’s not dead yet.

o    PCs: Last year, we said we expected that Post-PC would be a term we’d hear a lot – and we did – but though PC sales are declining, there’s still some life in PCs yet. There are still some things that you can do more easily and efficiently on a PC than a tablet so don’t write them off – just yet.  We think Ultrabooks and devices like Microsoft’s Surface Pro (part-PC/part-tablet) will continue to be in use through the end of the decade.

o    Cable TV: With all the articles about cord-cutting, you’d think all households were abandoning cable. That’s not the case, exactly. There are still programming like sports and local TV that you can’t easily get via Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc. And if you have to pay for all the streaming services to replicate cable, you’ll find it’s a bit more complicated when you cobble together different services and that you’ll wind up paying several hundred bucks a year. 

o    3D TVs and 3D glasses: Though it was the much hyped tech from last year’s CES, 3D TVs never took off. The reason: There’s just not enough 3D content available to make it worth purchasing 3D TVs.  A year later, there’s still not enough 3D content, and it doesn’t look like much is being developed, except for some 3D movies, which also aren’t meeting expectations. But if 3D movies didn’t die in the 1950s, when they were pioneered, we bet that 3D isn’t completely dead. Another reason people proclaim the death of 3D TVs is the launch of 4K and OLED TVs, which offer ultra high definition screens the size of entire walls. However, those UHD sets are also ultra expensive so we don’t expect to see them in everyone’s living room for some time. Please note: we do think 3D glasses for living room use is dead.

o    Blu-ray machines and DVDs: Typically the deaths of Blu-ray and DVDs are proclaimed for the same root cause: people prefer to stream video rather than own DVDs that can be scratched and destroyed and can only be played on certain devices (like Blu-ray players) that you can’t easily take with you everywhere.  But the fact is lots of people own lots of DVDs, and we don’t think people are going to be willing to throw their collections into the scrap heap of history just yet. Besides, DVDs offer featurettes that you can’t access from streaming video sites, which is often why people buy DVDs of their favorite movies. Also, for some households, the easiest way to access the streaming sites is through their Blu-ray players so don’t them out just yet. On the other hand, you don’t need Blu-ray quality when you’re streaming video.

o    Radio: Funny thing is that radio was supposed to have died years ago. In 1979, the Buggles hit the charts with their one hit, “Video Killed the Radio Star,” referencing a time in 1952 when radio was supposed to have died. Yet radio continues on, even in an era of iTunes.  That’s not true of cassette tapes, as evidenced that no new cars come equipped with tape players and that last year Sony actually stopped producing the Walkman, its pioneering portable music player. We’ll know radio is dead when car manufacturers stop including radios in new cars. But until that time, consider radio’s death to be premature. (Sorry, Buggles, whatever you’re doing now, certainly not, as they sang, playing their VCR.)

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V or Part VI.

2012 Trends Report Card, Part III

Here's Part III of our report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions. 

Media Trends

1.     More viewers will cut the cable cord. We nailed this one as articles appeared across the media spectrum (print, online, blogs, etc.) with reported and first-person accounts of “cord cutting” as Americans tried to replace cable TV service either as to save money or to try new watch-anywhere apps such as Hulu Plus and Netflix.  Media outlets covering the story included the Wall St. Journal ("Over-the-Air TV Catches Second Wind, Aided by Web," “Cable Firms Making Offers Cord-Cutters Can't Refuse,” “Cable Firms Making Offers Cord-Cutters Can't Refuse” & A Year Without Cable: Is it possible to survive on Netflix and Hulu alone?), New York Times (“Disruptions: TV Makers Ignore Apps at Their Own Peril” & "In Search of Apps for Television"), Bloomberg BusinessWeek (interview with Comcast’s CEO "cord cutting”),  and others. Grade: A+.

2.     Converging media will continue in 2012. We still think lines of cooperation and competition will continue to blur among media properties: radio stations now post photos and text articles on their website while newspapers feature video channels. And with cord-cutting, more people are watching TV shows on anything but a TV, mostly smartphones, tablets and computers. However, this was a bit topic for media coverage. Grade: B-.

3.     E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content. We said that with “the growing capabilities of e-readers,… expect e-textbooks to include interactive exercises, and nonfiction e-books to include more video, photos, and audio, while fiction books will come packed with featurettes much the way DVDs are packaged.” Bloomberg BusinessWeek validated that prediction with an article, “Easier E-Books with Inkling,” that said, "E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content." We still think this will happen but we were optimistic to think e-book featurettes would be a regular item in 2012.  We now think that will happen within three to five years.  Grade: C+/B- for being too ahead of the game on this.

We'll issue more grades in tomorrow's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Bloomberg BusinessWeek Article Validates Another Prediction

In reporting on Feb. 16th about Easier E-Books with Inkling, Bloomberg BusinessWeek validated a prediction we made Feb 1st: "E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content." Check out our prediction here.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part 3

Here's Part 3 of our predictions:

1. More viewers will cut the cable cord. Americans have complained about the service of cable companies for decades. Now, consumers have another reason to grumble: Cable fees are rising so much that even cable providers are taking content providers to task over the cost of content – specifically sports channels, (Wall St. Journal: “Cable-TV Honchos Cry Foul Over Soaring Cost of ESPN,” Dec. 6, 2011). This year, expect more people to reduce their monthly expenses by cancelling their cable subscription – partly to reduce monthly expenses and partly to use new technology that provides a flexible alternative, allowing us to watch what we want, when we want, and on the device of our choosing.  The challenge: You need to have several apps, along with a computer connected to your TV, and, it’s still too complicated – often requiring tech assistance for many just to get it set up.  And technology is quickly evolving, which means what you buy today may be obsolete in 18 months, requiring new purchases and additional tech support.
2.      Converging media will continue in 2012. 1) Expect more newspaper reporters to prepare video reports for their newspapers’ website and apps. Expect more TV and radio reporters to prepare text articles for their websites and apps – and everyone to take more still photos that they post onto Twitter and Google+. Lines of cooperation and competition will continue to blur.  2) Increasingly, media will stop being defined by the device on which we used to consume them. Instead, we’ll need to find new terms to define what we’re doing. We’re not taping a TV program anymore because we’re not using tape of any kind – we’re recording it onto a DVR and perhaps watching it on a tablet.
   
   
   In fact, calling HBO a pay-cable channel may not make sense as more people may access the network via smartphone or tablet apps. They’ll listen to the radio but not actually on a radio (there is an app for that). Or watch TV on a TV. And they certainly won’t be watching or listening at the time designated by the broadcasters, but on their own time.  Interestingly, American consumers, who have purchased new flat panel TVs over the past five years, are looking to watch TV shows on devices at a time and place that’s convenient for them. 
   
   
   The implications for communications functions within organizations: Because the how, when and where we consume media is changing, they should consider developing and distributing content across different platforms and different devices and for different mindsets.  The person using a smartphone wants short, uncluttered content whereas a person using a laptop might be okay with more links and longer high-def content.
3.  E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content. Already some publishers are working on combining video and other interactive features into their e-books to provide more value. With the growing capabilities of e-readers like the Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble’s Nook, expect e-textbooks to include interactive exercises, and nonfiction e-books to include more video, photos, and audio, while fiction books will come packed with featurettes much the way DVDs are packaged.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for additional predictions.

E-Books to Take Off in 2010

The Kindle will continue to sell to early adopters, but it’s still more like a beta of what’s ahead: bigger, more colorful screens, easier ways to share articles to other users, even a text-to-speech or audio book option so you can throw your book in the car. We expect e-books to become bigger in 2010.