USA Today Validates Cord Cutting Prediction

Just to help us to keep track for our end-of-year- report card on our trends, USA Today recently wrote about cord cutting.

Check out the article: "Are you ready to cut the cord? As many drop their cable provider in favor of streaming, is cutting the cord worth it?"

Personally, I think the number of services you need to subscribe to ends up being more complicated and incomplete -- though still less expensive on a monthly basis. Hulu Plus, Netflix and Amazon come to $22 per month (if you exclude Netflix's DVD-by-mail service). If you cut the cord, you lose access to live programing but you save $80 per month. That's a lot of money you can save if you don't mind an imperfect solution.

Over the next 18 months, given devices like the new Xbox One (See USA Today article: "How the Apple TV can compete with Xbox One"), which aim to be an all-in-one entertainment box for your living room, we think more people will consider cutting the cord.

One question is will services like HBO, Showtime and Cinemax, which all have apps for cable subscribers, will open up access to non-cable subscribers. How much would streaming customers be willing to pay for Game of Thrones?

2012 Trends Report Card, Part III

Here's Part III of our report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions. 

Media Trends

1.     More viewers will cut the cable cord. We nailed this one as articles appeared across the media spectrum (print, online, blogs, etc.) with reported and first-person accounts of “cord cutting” as Americans tried to replace cable TV service either as to save money or to try new watch-anywhere apps such as Hulu Plus and Netflix.  Media outlets covering the story included the Wall St. Journal ("Over-the-Air TV Catches Second Wind, Aided by Web," “Cable Firms Making Offers Cord-Cutters Can't Refuse,” “Cable Firms Making Offers Cord-Cutters Can't Refuse” & A Year Without Cable: Is it possible to survive on Netflix and Hulu alone?), New York Times (“Disruptions: TV Makers Ignore Apps at Their Own Peril” & "In Search of Apps for Television"), Bloomberg BusinessWeek (interview with Comcast’s CEO "cord cutting”),  and others. Grade: A+.

2.     Converging media will continue in 2012. We still think lines of cooperation and competition will continue to blur among media properties: radio stations now post photos and text articles on their website while newspapers feature video channels. And with cord-cutting, more people are watching TV shows on anything but a TV, mostly smartphones, tablets and computers. However, this was a bit topic for media coverage. Grade: B-.

3.     E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content. We said that with “the growing capabilities of e-readers,… expect e-textbooks to include interactive exercises, and nonfiction e-books to include more video, photos, and audio, while fiction books will come packed with featurettes much the way DVDs are packaged.” Bloomberg BusinessWeek validated that prediction with an article, “Easier E-Books with Inkling,” that said, "E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content." We still think this will happen but we were optimistic to think e-book featurettes would be a regular item in 2012.  We now think that will happen within three to five years.  Grade: C+/B- for being too ahead of the game on this.

We'll issue more grades in tomorrow's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Even Comcast's CEO Talks about Cord Cutting

Beyond multiple articles in the Wall St. Journal, New York Times and other publications that have validated our "Cutting the Cable" prediction that people are moving away from cable, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts was quoted in a Bloomberg BusinessWeek interview addressing "cord cutting" by saying:

"So with all the press about cord-cutting, facts would say that [Netflix] has really been more additive. There are more multichannel video subscribers today than there were a year ago. People want more control, more choice, and more personalization."

Of course he'd say that cord cutting isn't an issue for Comcast. What else would you expect him to say?

And while I do think of Netflix as additive, today, I don't think that will necessarily be the case in the future. People do like the control of being able to watch programs on whatever device they've got or will buy, and if traditional cable companies don't provide that choice, people will cut the cord.

That will increasingly be the future of how we access the kind of content formerly known as TV shows. After all, in our always tethered to the Internet world, you really don't need cable as a transmission vehicle. Or satellite, either.

You just need Internet, which you're already paying for.

And if you access TV shows on a device, there are already many ways to connect tablets to your TV. All I'm saying is that cable is an easier way, today, to access that sort of content. But it soon won't be. I can access HBO shows on HBO to Go, its iPad/iPhone app, because I'm a cable subscriber. But I see no reason that I shouldn't be able to subscribe directly to HBO, and not have to go through a third-party like Verizon to get it.

Just saying that cord cutting will continue to gain momentum.

Another New York Times Article about Cutting the Cable Cord

Another day, and another article about alternatives to accessing TV content that previously was available only via cable subscription.

Here's the latest New York Times article that validates our prediction: "In Search of Apps for Television."

It's worth checking out.

Boston Globe Validates Our Prediction about Unplugging

Topping our annual list of predictions this year was this: "The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012." With vacation season fast approaching, The Boston Globe's travel section published a cover story on truly getting away and unplugging.  Check out "10 places where pleasure is the plug-in and only boats need a port."

Now that our top prediction has been validated, we can relax, and unplug. (Ah who am I kidding -- who can afford to unplug?)

NY Times Continues to Validate Our Cutting the Cord Prediction

Last month, the Wall St. Journal validated our our Cutting the Cable prediction. This week, the New York Times climbed on board. Nick Bilton's Disruptions: TV Makers Ignore Apps at Their Own Peril makes the point that he prefers watching programs on his iPhone or iPad because:

"The idea of turning it on, powering up the external speakers, starting the Apple TV or Xbox, telling the TV which input does what, or flicking through some traditional TV channels, makes me anxious. It’s the same feeling I get when I think about sifting through a pile of bills."

So what does Bilton see as the problem?

What is broken is the entire television experience. I have two remote controls for the TV and speakers with more than 40 buttons each. (I don’t have cable or TiVo; if I did, I’d have even more buttons to worry about.)

Instead, Bilton prefers his iPhone over his TV because of the way it allows him to consume content -- and because he can also create content, post information and comments and share content all on the same device. 

He's really talking about cutting the cable. We think people will want to access movies at home on big screens -- so that the whole family can watch. But we also continue to believe that people will want to watch wherever they are and on whatever device they have. That means watching video on a smartphone while standing in the security line at the airport; watching on a tablet when they get a seat at the gate or when they're actually on the plane; and watching when they get home or to the hotel room -- each time, picking up where they left off. The device doesn't matter, really. We just want optimized access wherever, whenever.

Cable, as it currently operates, doesn't make sense in that context.  They need to find a way to stream the content we each want to all our devices -- and I know there are technical, licensing and security issues to be solved. But that is the future, and by 2022, the concept of cable will seem as remote as dial-up does to my kids.

WSJ validates another of our predictions

The Wall St. Journal validates our Cutting the Cable prediction. In an article published yesterday, "Over-the-Air TV Catches Second Wind, Aided by Web," The Journal reported the same driving factors we cited:

With an increased array of online-video programming now drawing viewers' attention, companies are starting to pitch consumers on complementing online video streamed from the Web with broadcast-TV signals as a way to save money on cable subscriptions....There are signs that consumers are responding.

Here's what we said on Feb. 1st:

This year, expect more people to reduce their monthly expenses by cancelling their cable subscription – partly to reduce monthly expenses and partly to use new technology that provides a flexible alternative, allowing us to watch what we want, when we want, and on the device of our choosing. 

 It's always nice to be validated by the Wall St. Journal.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part 3

Here's Part 3 of our predictions:

1. More viewers will cut the cable cord. Americans have complained about the service of cable companies for decades. Now, consumers have another reason to grumble: Cable fees are rising so much that even cable providers are taking content providers to task over the cost of content – specifically sports channels, (Wall St. Journal: “Cable-TV Honchos Cry Foul Over Soaring Cost of ESPN,” Dec. 6, 2011). This year, expect more people to reduce their monthly expenses by cancelling their cable subscription – partly to reduce monthly expenses and partly to use new technology that provides a flexible alternative, allowing us to watch what we want, when we want, and on the device of our choosing.  The challenge: You need to have several apps, along with a computer connected to your TV, and, it’s still too complicated – often requiring tech assistance for many just to get it set up.  And technology is quickly evolving, which means what you buy today may be obsolete in 18 months, requiring new purchases and additional tech support.
2.      Converging media will continue in 2012. 1) Expect more newspaper reporters to prepare video reports for their newspapers’ website and apps. Expect more TV and radio reporters to prepare text articles for their websites and apps – and everyone to take more still photos that they post onto Twitter and Google+. Lines of cooperation and competition will continue to blur.  2) Increasingly, media will stop being defined by the device on which we used to consume them. Instead, we’ll need to find new terms to define what we’re doing. We’re not taping a TV program anymore because we’re not using tape of any kind – we’re recording it onto a DVR and perhaps watching it on a tablet.
   
   
   In fact, calling HBO a pay-cable channel may not make sense as more people may access the network via smartphone or tablet apps. They’ll listen to the radio but not actually on a radio (there is an app for that). Or watch TV on a TV. And they certainly won’t be watching or listening at the time designated by the broadcasters, but on their own time.  Interestingly, American consumers, who have purchased new flat panel TVs over the past five years, are looking to watch TV shows on devices at a time and place that’s convenient for them. 
   
   
   The implications for communications functions within organizations: Because the how, when and where we consume media is changing, they should consider developing and distributing content across different platforms and different devices and for different mindsets.  The person using a smartphone wants short, uncluttered content whereas a person using a laptop might be okay with more links and longer high-def content.
3.  E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content. Already some publishers are working on combining video and other interactive features into their e-books to provide more value. With the growing capabilities of e-readers like the Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble’s Nook, expect e-textbooks to include interactive exercises, and nonfiction e-books to include more video, photos, and audio, while fiction books will come packed with featurettes much the way DVDs are packaged.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for additional predictions.