Our Prediction about Corporate Boycotts -- by Other Companies -- Has Been Validated

One of our of more important predictions for ongoing trends in 2018 is was no. 11: 

Corporate boycotts & consumer boycotts will continue. These are boycotts by companies in order to demonstrate distance from controversial programs and personalities. We also expect boycotts of companies that are boycotting those controversial people and programs.

We've seen that to continue to be true in 2018, even more so than in 2017 when we first made that prediction.

In the wake of the tragic Parkland shooting, a number of big brand names have broken ties with the NRA. We've also seen a minor backlash to corporate boycotts -- like the reaction in Georgia to canceling a tax credit to Delta, whose HQ is in Georgia. Although Delta says the cancelation of a discount for NRA members was coincidental, Delta is not backing down.

The reason -- and the reason this is significant, as I told two college students who were interviewing me as part of a class project -- is that corporate values are more important than ever, thanks to social media. We expect more from the companies we purchase goods and services from.

That means brands need to look at making statements on controversial political matters -- something they would never have done a decade ago. More than that, they need to find the right tone and expression for that statement. It needs to fit the brand.

While the media worlds, including journalism and public relations -- endure significant upheaval (which includes, notably, a news cycle that churns so fast that stories like a porn star's suit against a U.S. president isn't even the top story), one thing is clear. And it's good news for PR practitioners.

PR has changed a lot over the past decade or so, but brands still need people who can tell stories that help shape brands. The best people positioned to do this are PR people who can tell a story via traditional media and social media (it has to be across both channels).

Wall St. Journal's Tech Columnists Validate Our Tech Predictions

On Dec. 14, 2017, we issued a set a trends for 2018 followed by another set of trends the next day and a final set the following week. We touched on a wide range of topics including: retail vs. Amazon, screen addiction, potential for government regulations against big tech, labor shortage, continued conversation about gender issues, a changing media landscape, AI and robotics, bitcoin and cryptocurrency, smart home tech, a shorter news cycle, the continued battle over fake news, cord cutting, VR and AR, IoT (because tech loves acronyms), driverless cars, virtual assistants, and more.

That's not even everything we discussed.

But we're citing those because over at the Wall St. Journal, tech columnist Joanna Stern and Christopher Mims also issued a comprehensive list of predictions for 2018. Their list, published Dec. 27, 2017, "Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2018," includes similar predictions.

Which we say validates the ones we made two weeks earlier.

• We said driverless and electric cars would generate a lot of attention -- because our goal in identifying trends is to figure out the media mindset to help our clients develop stories that matter to reporters they care about -- while Sterns and Mims provided more detail on where driverless cars will go in 2018. They think electric cars will get cheaper, and we hope so.
• They said that Facebook, facing "scrutiny over the fake news," would go back it's roots and "put the 'social' back in social network." We also predicted that Facebook would have to change as a result of the backlash stemming from fake news on Facebook (as well as on Twitter). So glad we're on the same page.
• We talked about Amazonification and Sterns and Mims said, "Amazon Takes Over (Even More)." Again, they dug deeper into the impact -- saying that Amazon will do more with furniture and appliances, office services, pharmacies and supermarkets, and that the company "is on track to employ more than 500,000 people in 2018." We agree with all that. Our take, however, has also addressed the potential huge problem for retail, real estate, employment and small towns if Amazonification really takes hold.
• They said "cryptovurrency feels less cryptic" while we said bitcoin and blockchain, while not mainstream yet (by which we mean: something that everyone has invested in), "finally reaches a point where people who haven’t paid attention at least have heard of the two cryptocurrency terms." 
• They said, "The Net Loses Neutrality" and we asked, "Is the Internet dying?" because ending net neutrality helps Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft, among others.
• They said A.I. moves in everywhere and we said A.I. continues to be hot but also that we expect to see articles concerned about a takeover by A.I. 
• They said, "The assault on security and privacy continues," and we agreed, saying, "There's never enough cybersecurity and privacy." Frankly, we preferred our phrasing better but their description of what's happening and steps to take is better than our version. (Of course, they are tech columnists.)

We're pleased one tech prediction article by such insightful tech columnists dovetailed closely with our predictions. It means that our insights into the media world based on these trends can be helpful to current and prospective clients.

Let us know if you have any questions about what these trends could mean for your business. Leave a message on this blog or email us at info@birnbachcom.com. Either way, we'll respond quickly.  

TrendReport 2017: Additional trends to expect

Each year we post our annual list of trends and predictions, as we did in Dec. 2016. We only posted our top five trends but, as usual, we actually identified many more. We recently added a new one about boycotts, with the twist being the boycotts were conducted by big brands not by consumers against those brands.

But each year, we typically identify more than a dozen trends, and we felt we should post the rest of these here (actually, we meant to post them a couple of weeks ago but have been busy).

Here are the rest of the trends we think will have an impact in 2017.

1.    2017 will be a tough year for traditional media. Financial sustainability used to be print media’s primary challenge. Not anymore. While still an issue, it has been replaced by the ascent of fake news, which has attacked traditional media’s most important value: credibility. In the last three months of the campaign, according to BuzzFeed’s Craig Silverman, fake news stories outperformed and were shared more frequently than real news. Publishers need to figure out how to re-establish their own credibility, make facts relevant and attract readers (and revenue) who may or may not care about whether news is fake or real. We expect to see declining circulations and revenues at real news organizations, followed by more layoffs and smaller papers.

2.    Social media addiction becomes recognized as a thing. It’s not just kids who can’t put down their devices. It’s everyone. We expect more stories (spread on social media) about how to break the social media/device addiction. Here’s the problem: You can’t live without your smartphone: You don’t know anyone’s phone number without it. You can’t text them without it. Meanwhile look at all you can do with it: pay for things, shop for things, turn on and off devices in your home, much less use it to not have to interact with anyone. Taking a break from your device is healthy but impossible, and we expect more content in 2017 about this as an issue.

3.    Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality still won’t be everywhere. Many newspapers feature VR content. And the NBA is now testing VR. But we don’t think VR or AR like the faddish Pokemon Go will be ubiquitous yet in 2017. Solvable problems include VR headsets that offer an improved immersive experience than the cardboard headsets (that resemble cereal-box prizes) distributed by some newspapers so readers could access VR content or the current high-end headsets. Providing a feedback loop from user to the headset/content could be around the corner – a real corner. As with other tech, VR and AR need more content to encourage people they need to have it.

4.    Expect a cloudier 2017. Cloud computing has been a full-fledged trend for several years now. But we expect that it will evolve, to reduce the costs of cloud computing and to enhance capabilities.

5.    Artificial intelligence will continue to surge. AI become the big tech trend covered in the media in 2016. While there is overblown fear that AI-enabled robots will take over humanity, we expect to see AI built into all sorts of consumer and B2B environments – and to be featured in more Hollywood movies and TV shows.

6.    Drones still won’t take off. Consumer drones look like fun – for a couple of hours. We think the real market will be B2B, not just for deliveries (which we think is still a couple of years off). We expect B2B drones to help do things that are hard or risky for humans to do such as checking train tracks or oil pipelines in rural, hard-to-otherwise-reach locations. B2B use of drones, like B2B use of robots, will drive the market.

7.    Globalization will be a hot topic. From free trade agreements to tariffs, job losses, Brexit and the U.S.’s relationship with other countries, and the nature of globalization itself will be a very hot topic in 2017 and beyond. 

8.    Interest in voice speakers will turn up. Farhad Manjoo at the Times says gadgets are dead but there’s one area that he’s wrong: digital voice assistants like Amazon’s Alexa and Google’s Home. These two assistants/speakers are designed to be more helpful than digital assistants, and we believe this will be a big year for them, and that IoT connectivity will likely operate through them. Alexa and Home are the killer app for smart home technology in the living room, like lighting, home Wi-Fi networks, and thermostats but also may be the key to IoT in kitchen appliances.

Ongoing trends:

1.  NFL ratings will continue to decline.

2.  Drug pricing will get a lot of attention

3.  Wearable tech will still not be as mainstream as people in the industry were hoping.

4.  Progress to a driverless-car future will slow down – but not for the reason you might think. The closer we get, we will recognize that aspects of driving that we took for granted are more complicated to solve when a human is not driving. These tech issues must be solved even before we get to solving liability issues.

5.  3D printers will continue to proliferate in schools but remain unnecessary in the home.

6.   Eventually consumers will realize they can’t easily, more efficiently or more cheaply cut the cord to cable – since the bandwidth comes from the cable company. But it might not matter. People watch on many devices – but usually not on their TVs – so streaming services will continue to be popular, even if duplicating cable offerings.

7.  eBook sales will continue to plateau while traditional book sales increase slightly. (Meanwhile, sales of vinyl records will continue to climb but will remain a niche market.)

8.  e-Wallets still won’t be as widely adopted as some were projecting. They will go mainstream but not in 2017 or 2018.

This now completes the list of most of the new and ongoing trends we identified in December. We purposely did not want to add new trends that came to light as a result of changing global political realities or predictions that only would have been obvious after the fact (like Bill O'Reilly's departure this week from Fox). 

Let us know what you think about our list -- what we missed (not including political or unlikely predictions like one about O'Reilly). As always, we will issue a report card on these trends later in November.

Wall St. Journal Validates Our Gig Economy Prediction With Articles That Explore The Changing Nature of Employment

For the last couple of years, we've been seeing the gig economy as a trend of increasing significance, as the population of workers who either work side jobs or businesses (known as "side hustle") or hold a series of part-time jobs continues to grow.

This year, with a new Administration that promises to bring back jobs to America, it may become more politicized. Our perspective is not political but merely recognizing a seismic shift in how American work, since many seem to prefer being in the gig economy (made possible by technology) rather than work traditional jobs.

In Dec. 2016, when we issued our list of top trends for 2017, TrendReport 2017, we went a step beyond just saying that the gig economy would be important. We also said, 

"We need to more accurately define the gig and the sharing economies (i.e., Uber, which touches on both; as well as Airbnb) and to identify and track meaningful metrics, both to gain an accurate portrait of overall U.S. economy as well as develop appropriate policies regarding taxes, healthcare and social services."

Today, in a article, the Wall St. Journal noted: "Counting Up Contractors Is a Tricky Business Government agencies and employers have difficulty tracking the numbers because many contractors are hired by one company to work for another."

A follow-up article, that the Journal felt important enough to place on its front page, was entitled, "The End of Employees," and noted that "Never before have big employers tried so hard to hand over chunks of their business to contractors. From Google to Wal-Mart, the strategy prunes costs for firms and job security for millions of workers." Interestingly, the article did not refer to the "gig economy" at all but did refer to "TVCs—an abbreviation for temps, vendors and contractors (who) test drive Google’s self-driving cars, review legal documents, make products easier and better to use, manage marketing and data projects, and do many other jobs. They wear red badges at work, while regular Alphabet employees wear white ones."

These are two of the first articles we've seen that discussed the point we think is crucial in terms of understanding how the gig economy works, what it's impact is -- whether you're in a traditional job or a gigs -- and how to structure our tax policy and health and other benefits.

Check out the WSJ articles because we do think understanding the nature of the gig economy is important for our country's future, regardless of one's politics. 

Bloomberg Businessweek Validates Our Prediction about Unicorns

In our predictions for 2016, we said that we should expect that Unicorns -- privately held startups with valuations in excess of $1 billion, would find this year to be much more difficult. (You can check out that prediction, "Whither unicorns and their business models?") 

Already, we've seen articles in Fortune, Wall St. Journal, and New York Times write about Unicorns this year, all validating our concerns about unrealistic valuations and pressures. Add to it, Bloomberg Businessweek, which wrote, "Unicorns Aren't So Beloved Anymore" (Print headline: "The Last (of This) Unicorn?") about Zenefits.

Zenefits has quickly become the poster child for unchecked growth, with a CEO who was ousted and concerns that the company may have broken laws and did not maintain compliance.

This isn't to say that all Unicorns are or will face a similar phase -- but just that we continue to think that 2016 and beyond will be a tougher time for Unicorns.

Left unsaid in our predictions is what the impact of tighter money, lower valuations, etc. will have on smaller startups. We think it could be a tougher time for them, too.

New York Times Validated Our Predictions on Unicorns

In our annual predictions, we predicted that the business media, which in 2015 had breathlessly reported on unicorns – startups valued at upwards of $1 billion – would start reporting that there's a unicorn bubble. On Jan. 20th, a little more than a month after we posted that prediction, the New York Times' Steven Davidoff Solomon wrote an article, "Expect some unicorns to lose their horns, and it won't be pretty."

In his article, Davidoff Solomon predicted, "The unicorn wars are coming, as the downturn in the market will force these onetime highfliers to seek money at valuations below their earlier billion-dollar-plus levels, known as 'down rounds.'”

He also goes into more detail about the kinds of wars that will occur, including those 

• Who own common stock vs. those who own preferred -- those with preferred make out better.
• Employees vs new money -- in other words between stock options that may now be worthless as new investors push the value down significantly.
• New money vs. old money -- in this case the valuation given the shares that new investors get vs. those earlier investors got. 
• Founders vs. everyone else.

If you're interested in unicorns because they set a tone for the market, Davidoff Solomon's article is worth checking out.

Wall St. Journal Valdates Our Net Neutrality Predictions

In its "The Year Ahead," column, subtitled "Eight Business Trends to Watch in 2015," the Wall Street Journal validated our prediction about net neutrality, issued Dec. 2014.

According to the Journal, one of the business trends is "Net-Neutrality Grows More Intense." The first paragraph says it all:

"The debate about the opennes of the Internet is only going to get  more heated in the months to come."

Which is what we said back in December.

David Pogue validates our prediction about CES

Last year we predicted that CES would diminish next year, and I think the decrease in the amount of coverage indicates proves that. 

But in yesterday's New York Times, consumer tech columnist David Pogue wrote a column that validates our prediction: "Spicing Up a Ho-Hum Tech Show." 

Check out the opening sentences:

Hi boss! I’m back from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. You assigned me to report on what’s new and exciting, but I have some bad news. The answer is: almost nothing.

I mean, think about it: Apple, Google, Microsoft and Facebook don’t even attend C.E.S.; they’d rather make their product announcements on their own schedules without being locked into this every-January thing. It’s still a big show, bigger than ever this year, with 3,200 exhibits and 150,000 attendees, but I wonder why people bother. Whose product announcement will get any press at all when it’s buried by 3,199 others?

...

So if you want an exciting column from me, the thrills won’t come from the news of new products at C.E.S.

 Nice to get validation from Mr. Pogue.

Look for our 2013 predictions later this month.

Bloomberg BusinessWeek Validates Cybercrime Prediction

Cybercrime -- which we also predicted (see original column here) as one of the top ongoing stories the media will cover in 2012 -- continues to generate media headlines.

The latest is from Bloomberg BusinessWeek: "Life in Cyberia: A new brand of warfare is under way. Our five experts discuss the best defenses."

With news just this month of malware attacks on Lebanese banks (potentially to uncover links to terrorists; check out Forbes' article on Gauss) and airports (see a separate BusinessWeek's article), expect coverage of cyberattacks and cyber warfare to continue into 2013.

New York Times Continues to Validate Our Prediction about Cyberwarfare

In addition to reporting on privacy issues, as we predicted, The New York Times has also been reporting on cybercrime -- which we also predicted (see original column here) as one of the top ongoing stories the media will cover in 2012. The Times had already validated our predictions with several articles on the topic (see here), but over the past few days, the Times has written at least three articles on cybercrime and cyberwarfare:

• Asleep at the Laptop by Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York.who frames the discussion as "Cybergeddon; the next Pearl Harbor; one of the greatest existential threats facing the United States. With increasing frequency, these are the grave terms officials invoke about the menace of cybercrime — and they’re not understating the threat....With all the attention paid to the so-called fiscal cliff approaching at year’s end, it is equally important to ask whether collective inaction has us simultaneously barreling toward a cybercliff of equal or greater height."
•  Expert Issues a Cyberwar Warning about the implications the Flame virus afflicting computers in Iran and the Middle East.
• Mutually Assured Cyberdestruction? which reports on a (now not) secret program called “Olympic Games.” Apparently dating from "the last years of the George W. Bush administration, the United States has mounted repeated attacks with the most sophisticated cyberweapons ever developed. ...
  But precisely because the United States refuses to talk about its new cyberarsenal, there has never been a real debate in the United States about when and how to use cyberweapons."

We expect to see more articles about cyberwarfare, including attacks on the U.S. from China and originating from the U.S. on Iran and elsewhere.

Entrepreneur Validates "Lean In" in Jargon of the Month

Back in January, we predicted that "lean-back/lean forward" might be one of the most overused phrases this year.  

As background, Lean-back activities are those in which users passively access content, like watching TV. Lean-forward activities are those in which the user is actively engaged in consuming content, as when they’re searching for content on the Internet or via an app. 

The May issue of Entrepreneur, not yet available online, validated that prediction with its "Jargon of the Month" for May: Lean In. Ok, so it's not lean-back, but, according to Entrepreneur, "Lean in" can be used to define "the act of making yourself appear engaged and interested when the person addressing you bores you to the point of exhaustion."


Not really so far off, actually. I'll give this a B in our end-of-year wrap up on how we did with our predictions.

The Atlantic Validates Our Prediction: Social Media May Make Us Lonelier

In this year's edition of our annual predictions of top media stories, one of our prediction was: "We may be immersed in social media, but we’ll spend less time with actual people."


Back in Jan., we wrote, "So many people use social media sites – from Facebook, Google+, Twitter and LinkedIn, to and more -- that people have less time to spend with their friends and family. We’re not sure if this will get much media coverage..."

Well The Atlantic Monthly has validated our prediction in its May 2012 issue. It's article, "Is Facebook Making Us Lonely?" makes the point that: "Social media—from Facebook to Twitter—have made us more densely networked than ever. Yet for all this connectivity, new research suggests that we have never been lonelier (or more narcissistic)—and that this loneliness is making us mentally and physically ill." Written by Stephen Marche, a novelist who writes a monthly column for Esquire, the article reports on "what the epidemic of loneliness is doing to our souls and our society."

It's well worth reading.

And today's Boston Globe validated our prediction that "The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012." Op-ed columnist Joanna Weiss wrote, "Giving screens -- and ago -- a week off," in favor of unplugging from 24/7 and a Screen Free-Week. Check that out, too.

Late-in-the-Day Update: Just got around to reading Jane E. Brody's column in today's Times.  She's a must-read health columnist, and her current column, "Making Progress Against Clutter," went beyond thinking of clutter as physical objects.  She spent about half the column talking about how much she enjoyed a recent trip to Antarctica because she and her two sons did not spend hours monitoring email and world news.  Instead,

We read books and missed not one excursion, lecture, vista or conversation with an interesting shipmate.

As I watched others buried in their iPads, laptops and smartphones, I wondered what people did on vacation before we had this plethora of electronic equipment keeping us “in touch” 24/7. Perhaps they telephoned now and then to see how the dog was faring.

Not knowing about problems back home or at work surely meant vacations were more relaxing, a real break from daily stress.

 Makes a pretty strong case for unplugging.

WSJ Validates our Cashless Payments Prediction

One of our predictions this year is that mobile payments will increase, and that "spearheaded by Google Wallet, Visa's V.me, and Verizon, 2012 looks to be a big year for mobile commerce."

Perhaps Wal-Mart and Target read our predictions published in Feb., but a Wall St. Journal article reported, "Retailers Join Payment Chase; Two Words: Digital Wallet—Wal-Mart and Target Join Project Aiming to Make Plastic," The big issues for adoption by retailers are potential security and privacy issues.

So looks like another point on the Trend-Validation Board for us.

NY Times Continues to Validate Our Cutting the Cord Prediction

Last month, the Wall St. Journal validated our our Cutting the Cable prediction. This week, the New York Times climbed on board. Nick Bilton's Disruptions: TV Makers Ignore Apps at Their Own Peril makes the point that he prefers watching programs on his iPhone or iPad because:

"The idea of turning it on, powering up the external speakers, starting the Apple TV or Xbox, telling the TV which input does what, or flicking through some traditional TV channels, makes me anxious. It’s the same feeling I get when I think about sifting through a pile of bills."

So what does Bilton see as the problem?

What is broken is the entire television experience. I have two remote controls for the TV and speakers with more than 40 buttons each. (I don’t have cable or TiVo; if I did, I’d have even more buttons to worry about.)

Instead, Bilton prefers his iPhone over his TV because of the way it allows him to consume content -- and because he can also create content, post information and comments and share content all on the same device. 

He's really talking about cutting the cable. We think people will want to access movies at home on big screens -- so that the whole family can watch. But we also continue to believe that people will want to watch wherever they are and on whatever device they have. That means watching video on a smartphone while standing in the security line at the airport; watching on a tablet when they get a seat at the gate or when they're actually on the plane; and watching when they get home or to the hotel room -- each time, picking up where they left off. The device doesn't matter, really. We just want optimized access wherever, whenever.

Cable, as it currently operates, doesn't make sense in that context.  They need to find a way to stream the content we each want to all our devices -- and I know there are technical, licensing and security issues to be solved. But that is the future, and by 2022, the concept of cable will seem as remote as dial-up does to my kids.

Bloomberg BusinessWeek Article Validates Another Prediction

In reporting on Feb. 16th about Easier E-Books with Inkling, Bloomberg BusinessWeek validated a prediction we made Feb 1st: "E-books will improve their experience by providing new interactive and multimedia content." Check out our prediction here.

WSJ validates another of our predictions

The Wall St. Journal validates our Cutting the Cable prediction. In an article published yesterday, "Over-the-Air TV Catches Second Wind, Aided by Web," The Journal reported the same driving factors we cited:

With an increased array of online-video programming now drawing viewers' attention, companies are starting to pitch consumers on complementing online video streamed from the Web with broadcast-TV signals as a way to save money on cable subscriptions....There are signs that consumers are responding.

Here's what we said on Feb. 1st:

This year, expect more people to reduce their monthly expenses by cancelling their cable subscription – partly to reduce monthly expenses and partly to use new technology that provides a flexible alternative, allowing us to watch what we want, when we want, and on the device of our choosing. 

 It's always nice to be validated by the Wall St. Journal.

New York Times Validates Another of Our Predictions

In its article, "Netbooks Lose Status as Tablets Like the iPad Rise" (print headline, "From Rising Star to Wallflower, the Netbook Tells a Tale") by Steve Lohr, the New York Times validated another of our predictions, that there were be a lot of stories about the battle of the tablets (the iPad vs. the iPad killers) and one theme would be:

Lots of stories about the impact of tablets on the PC market. (Anyone remember netbooks?)

Check out Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I from Jan. 10th for the original prediction.

But check out Lohr's article. It provides interesting insights into lessons from the rise and fall of the netbook. Could this happen to the the iPad?

Report Card for Our 2010 Predictions, Part II

Here's Part II of our track record on our predictions for 2010. Part I is available here.

• We predicted that live integrated real-time interactive media will be common – that was a bit premature. But in an article appearing in its April issue, "Payday: Ustream's Pay-Per-View Online Entertainment: Will Ustream's pay-per-view experiment forge a business model for live Internet video?", Fast Company validated our prediction.

• In other predictions, we said radio will continue to survive – for now. So far that's true. But the challenge continues to be that kids may not be growing up listening to radio – they're listening to their iPods instead. We were right that the decline and fall of TV networks wouldn't happen in 2010 as viewership actually increased, according to Brian Stelter reporter in a Jan. 2nd article: TV Viewing Continues to Edge Up, noting "Americans watched more television than ever in 2010, according to the Nielsen Company."

• It's pretty clear that social media will survive the recovery – that it's not just something people do while waiting for work. We also said that online credibility will continue to be important, and some of the crises that hit in 2010 proved that point when the companies' online sites did not provide an accurate version of what was happening.

• We said the intersection of social media and traditional media will be increasingly busy -- a thought validated by Fast Company in a November cover story, "I Want My Twitter TV!."

All in all, we did pretty well in 2010. If only the Red Sox had done as well.

We will issue our predictions for 2011 next week. Check back, please, and let us know what you think.

Report Card for Our 2010 Predictions, Part I

Last year was a pretty good one in terms of the predictions we made for 2010 and what actually happened. Far from a shellacking, in fact.

Here's our recap.

• Although signs were pointing in the other direction, we predicted that print journalism would continue to be important. And that was validated, in part, by Bloomberg's announcement that it would start publishing editorials in across its media empire, including Bloomberg BusinessWeek. If print isn't important, Bloomberg would not have purchased BusinessWeek (in 2009) and would just publish its editorials on a blog.

• Print newspapers and magazines continued to struggle in 2010, just as we predicted. In July, SFNblog reported that 18 papers had shut down or stopped publishing a print version. That's a drop in the bucket compared with 2009's 109 but shows ongoing struggles. In the same article, SFNblog reported that "s of May 2010, there have been more than 1,797 job losses or buyouts in newspaper companies in the country."

• We predicted that 2010 would be the year of online subscriptions, and very quickly publishers like the New York Times, Hulu.com, Boston Globe and others began announcing that they would be establishing online subscription access to their content. Within days of posting our prediction, New York Times reporter Richard Perez-Pena wrote, "Some News Outlets Ready to Try Charging Online Readers." Other developments on the road to online subscriptions included Rupert Murdoch's plan to establish a paywall for Times of London; an article in TheDeal.com (""Creeping Towards Ubiquity: the Pay-for-Play Traditional Media is Striking Back, Winning Some Small Victories Over Digital Free-Content Rivals"). AdAge wrote about the challenges when some sites charge for content and others don't ("New Test for Paid Content as Competing News Sites Remain Free").

• Mobile access did increase, as predicted, thanks to the iPad.

• We predicted that in-flight Internet access would take off. While more flights have in-flight Wi-Fi, we may have overstated things just for the pun of it.

• We got a lot of the business and technology stories right, including

  1. Apple's iPad was one of the biggest stories. One story we did not predict was the huge growth of Google's Android platform – though we did predict a battle between Android vs. the iPhone.
  2. The 3-D TV market was a big story, with lots of post-CES coverage about the latest technology in Forbes, the Times and many other outlets (wondering if it would save the networks) and lots of coverage at the end of the year (wondering why 3-D didn't take off as much as expected.)
  3. We predicted the media would focus on corporate battles like Google vs. Apple vs. Microsoft and EMC vs. HP vs. Oracle. We were right about Google vs. Apple (especially Android vs. iPhone). But did not anticipate Oracle vs. SAP or Cisco vs. H-P. Forbes validated this prediction with "The Battle of the Tech Titans," published in its April 12th issue.
  4. The economy certainly was covered, and there were lots of mentions of the "new normal," as we predicted. Also, health care reform and regulations were major themes.
  5. The state of the media, especially print media, online-only business models and online subscriptions still generated coverage – can no longer call that "ink" – but not as much as in previous years. Twitter's business model did get a lot of pixels.
  6. Cloud computing and virtualization got plenty of business and trade coverage in 2010 – and will continue to do so in 2011.
  7. Location-based services and behavioral targeting by advertisers did get attention last year – and will continue to do so in 2011.
  8. We said that online privacy would be an important issue as social media, behavioral targeting, location-based services and hackers combine to make it easy for others to access personal information. The Wall St. Journal agreed with us – and ran an extensive, ongoing series about privacy entitled "What they know."
  9. The freelancing of the US workforce got covered in the New York Times ("Recession Adds to Appeal of Short-Term Jobs" and "New Job Means Lower Wages for Many") and Newsweek ("The Vanishing 9-to-5 Job: How the recession is accelerating a cultural shift in the corporate world toward more flexible workdays").
     

We'll provide additional items tomorrow.