2011 Trends Report Card, Part III

Here's the final part of our report card:

• The rules for social media will continue to evolve -- rapidly. Our point: Companies are still learning how to navigate social media, which gives newbies the opportunity to jump in, and to learn from what others are doing well as well as from mistakes others have made. One challenge remains: staying ahead of the range of sites, which can rise and fall in popularity...like the once dominant Friendster. Google-Plus launched in 2011 after some high profile social media failures on Google's part, but which generated 65 million users in a few months. So Google-Plus has quickly become a site that businesses should consider as part of their social media strategy. It's not to late to sign up, but it does mean another site to pay attention to, in addition to Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc.
• There weren't media stories directly about this but in 2011, companies were judged by how quickly they respond to social media situations.  For example, when Kenneth Cole posted an offensive tweet about protests in Cairo during the Arab Spring, it took him six hours to respond to criticisms.  The story became focused on the amount of time it took Cole to respond. Overall: A.
• We said the press release would not die in 2011, and we feel that it didn't, even as some companies used Twitter to issue news.  We feel that the press release will continue to be relevant in 2012.
• Traditional media did move to a stable, if fragile, footing in 2011, as we predicted. 
• While there were more apps designed to allow viewers to interact with other viewers while watching TV, these apps are more for avid fans and did not exactly become common. Perhaps that's because it's an uncomfortable combination of lean-back activities like watching TV and lean-forward activities like using a computer. (Expect to hear a lot of people talk about lean-back/lean-forward activities in 2012.) We overstated this one. Grade: B-.
•  Hybrid, mashup and curation were used a lot in 2011, but they were not the most overused words. According to Lake Superior State University, the list of most overused words include: Amazing, Occupy, baby bump and man cave. I really dislike the last two. Grade: B.
• We were right about some of the top stories -- the economy, health care, politics, and the battle among Google vs. Apple, etc. We were wrong about 3D TVs -- not much media interest when there did not seem to be much consumer interest in the technology.Oprah's network, OWN, got some coverage, but was not a major story -- just as it did not turn into a major cable network. Yet. (Don't bet against Oprah.) Overall grade: B+.

We'll publish more of our annual predictions tomorrow. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V.

2011 Trends Report Card, Part II

Here are more grades on some of the trends we predicted for 2011.
 
2011: The year of the app-based media subscriptionsPricing for app-based subscriptions were a big issue for publishers, but many now produce free apps that enable either per-issue (for a fee) access or free access for print subscribers. Some publishers have not figured things out, charging more on a per-electronic copy than for a per-print copy. Slowly more subscriptions are available on the iPad's Newsstand, which is great in that it aggregates a number of publications in one place, but not so good for publishers that once could expect their apps to appear on the screen by itself. Overall: B since this did not get much media or social media attention.

Converging media continues to converge.We predicted blurred lines among traditional media as newspapers reporters post video versions of their text stories; TV reporters post text versions of the video staandups, etc. That trend will continue in 2012 and beyond. Overall: A.

We'll publish more of our annual report on Monday. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V. 

2011 Trends Report Card, Part I

Before we issue our annual list of trends and predictions of media and social media issues next week, we think will be relevant in 2012, here's our annual report card of how we did with our 2011 predictions.

The Battle between the iPad & the iPad Killers
The battle we predicted between the iPad and the "iPad Killers" did not turn out to be much of a battle, as most of the wannabe iPad Killers were quickly considered misfires. HP's TouchPad was launched and taken off the market within a matter of weeks (writing off $3.3 billion to “the wind down of HP’s WebOS device business," which was the platform for the TouchPad). RIM's PlayBook launched without some key software apps.

We don't think we were wrong in calling it a big trend, though.  In an article, "Tech 2011: Biggest News Stories of the Year" published in Dec. 30, 2011, Wired included three tablet-related stories, including "Non-Apple Tablets Proliferate -- But No One Seems to Care."  Wired nominated two other tablet-related news events as top stories:

• HP Kills TouchPad -- Just Months After Its Release
• Kindle Fire Gives Tablet Hope to Cash-Strapped Common Folk

We were right in predicting that the iPad2 would continue to dominate the market, that a lot of media coverage would be about our app-enabled culture, and that there would  be a lot of discussion about iOS vs. Android. There were not as many stories as we expected for the PC market. We did not predict the Kindle Fire, which generated huge amount of coverage (overshadowing Barnes & Noble's equivalent Nook) as the media continued its attempt to anoint an iPad killer. Overall, an A-. As for 2012, we expect that the soon-to-be-disclosed (in a bar, perhaps) iPad 3 will be popular, and will continue to dominate the market. The Kindle Fire will do well, but a re-priced iPad 2 will outsell the Fire. Some Android tablets will continue to improve and to sell units, but will mostly eat iPad's dust.

We'll publish more of our annual report tomorrow. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V.

Johnson & Johnson Misdiagnosis of its Crisis

Perhaps it depends on how you define "crisis," but there are more than 200 articles by the third day of the month about the concerns about Johnson & Johnson's baby shampoo as well as a movement to boycott J&J. (Not every call for a boycott is a crisis -- on Facebook, there's a list to boycott those who boycott Arizona, so you can have counter-boycott boycotts.)  In fact, this is a big crisis for a brand that last month ranked by Forbes as the most trusted brand in America. This is particularly true because of the concern that some ingredients put babies at risk.

Yet Johnson & Johnson doesn't seem like it's hoping the issue will go away, even as it has posted some information online and on a couple of its Twitter feeds.

For example, there didn't seem to be much activity on Facebook about it, including on the J&J page -- there's one post from the company, from Tues., a day after much of the coverage started hitting. Meanwhile, there are 45 posts on the J&J Facebook wall, most of them from people venting how upset they feel, how they feel the company betrayed them and put their kids in danger.  The lack of engagement is turning off some customers, so that they're feeling as if J&J is not listening to them.

I don't think that's the case, though. I'm sure J&J is listening, but is figuring the company doesn't get much benefit from engaging with angry customers. And there isn't much benefit to engaging if the company is not willing to make changes that address customers' concerns about the possibly carcinogenic ingredients.  The company says it has been reformulating and phasing out some ingredients, but two years have passed and there are still some ingredients that have yet to be replaced in the new formulation.

Meanwhile, J&J has posted a handful of Tweets pointing to the long statement.  Again, it doesn't seem like the company is going out of its way, and possibly for the same reason.  While the company has several Twitter feeds, you'd

have to know where to find them (@JNJStories, @JNJHistory and @JNJComm) to see the posts, which merely offer a link to the long statement. Even the blog post (called JNJ BTW) isn't effective.

Part of the problem is that there's a lack of emotion or a lack of conveying that the company understands the emotion that its customers are feeling. While the organization raising awareness about the ingredients has a Twitter ID (@nontoxicissexy, and while much of the coverage includes a photo of an adorable baby, J&J's "A Statement on Ingredients in the News" doesn't address the emotion and concern -- it doesn't even include a photo of an adorable baby.  Instead, the statement is a rather dry, stoic response, one that hides behind language like "The ingredients used in JOHNSON'S^® Baby products, including preservatives that are designed to release tiny amounts of formaldehyde to protect against harmful bacteria growth, are safe and approved by regulators in every country or region in which they are used, including U.S., EU, and China."

Really? J&J should have realized that citing the fact that some ingredients meet the standards set by China would not help its case.  After all, China has its own safety and quality control issues, since the country has repeatedly let toy companies export lead-paint-covered toys, among other harmful ingredients and products.

I would be surprised if J&J does not completely reformulate its products to take out formaldehyde and other preservatives. As it is, the company merely says, it takes reformulating its products require "extensive efforts, which require complex testing and significant clinical studies to insure that new formulations meet our high standards for safety, mildness and gentleness." But I don't know why J&J doesn't just announce that it responding to concerns, and that will finish that process within a set timetable. They would be in a better position if they did so. Right now, it seems like the company is taking a hit it doesn't need too -- because it will eliminate formaldehyde. The challenge for J&J is that when it does finally sell formaldehyde-free baby shampoo, the company can't really make a big deal of it. It has a teachable moment that it's not effectively using.

Some Good YouTube Tips

Just a quick post for those interested in YouTube tips.  Check out Katherine Boehret's article, "Hidden Tools Find What You Want on YouTube."

Among the tools she mentions is the Quick Key, which allows you to generate a URL that enables you to share the video from exactly where you want to share it...meaning you can spare friends the long, pointless introductions before they get to the LOL cats.

Also check out "Tips on Taking Advantage of The YouTube Juggernaut."

Amazon Validates Our Prediction about 2011: The battle between iPad and the iPad Killers

With the announcement last week of the Kindle Fire, its color e-reader based on the Android platform, Amazon has validated our prediction that an important trend/story this year would be the battle between the iPad and the iPad Killers. (Check out: Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I.)

In the wake of perceived and actual failures like RIM's PlayBook and H-P's TouchPad, the iPad competitors have not lived up to the "killer" designation. Which explains some of the interest in the Kindle Fire as perhaps being a good challenger to the iPad. 

Is the Kindle Fire an iPad killer? Probably not in version 1.0, but it almost doesn't matter. From a media perspective, the Kindle Fire breathes new life into the iPad vs. competition story.

Fee, Fie, Foe -- 3 Lessons learned when companies mishandle how they communicate their new fees

In the wake of Netflix's mishandling its new pricing structure and sub-brand (Qwikster, in case you misspelled it), Bank of America recently also blundered in announcing a new charge for debit card customers (check out the Time Magazine about it here and a Financial Times article here).

With a US economy that continues to fluctuate wildly, and continued bad global economic news, it's probably a safe bet that more companies are going to look to raise prices and implement new charges to boost their embattled bottom lines. It's also a safe bet that as they do so, other companies (besides Netflix and BofA) will mishandle their communications around the price hikes.

You can check out Nine Lessons from Netflix and the 'Half Apology." 

Here are some thoughts about lessons from BofA:

1. Some companies may feel that their customers are captive and don't have much of an alternative, but even if that's true -- and I think it's more difficult to change banks than to switch TV channels -- companies need to realize there is a price to pay for mishandling communications. Beyond a company's reputation, publicly held companies have seen their stock prices fall as a result of negative consumer backlash.
2.  Companies need to provide context for restructuring their prices and fees. Blaming new government regulations, as BofA has done, will likely appeal to some customers, but when so many people think the government bailed out the banks while holding consumers accountable for bad mortgages will not generate much sympathy overall or provide enough of an explanation as to why BofA will soon start charging $60 a year for the privilege of using debit cards instead of checks or credit cards.  Especially right now, when there's a lot of anger towards Wall St., with in-person and online protests like #OccupyWallStreet. So for BofA and other banks like Chase, SunTrust, Wells Fargo, Regions, establishing new fees will likely be seen as another example of banks putting their interests ahead of their customers. 
3. Communicating solely by Twitter can be partially effective to get what amounts to a headline, but is not effective in providing detail. Our advice to BofA: Consider steps to take to mitigate the consumer backlash, especially since some reports attribute the drop in its share price to the negative consumer response to the new fees. If the only place BofA has addressed this issue is on its Twitter feed, @BofA_News, the bank should start communicating beyond Twitter.  First, because its 140-character limitation, Twitter is not the right means to communicate a complicated message. Second, fewer than 9,000 people currently follow @BofA_News so the bank can't be sure it's actually and effectively reaching its customer base. 

For example, the bank should prepare a detailed FAQ inserts to accompany its monthly statements and post that information on its website, about the new fee. The FAQ should explain the economics of the fee, should include a statement that explains the reluctance with which BofA realized it had to initiate the fee, and include information about ways that customers can avoid being charged the $5 per month fee -- for example, apparently using a debit card at an ATM won't trigger the fee but using a debit card at a retailer will. Meanwhile, explaining that Platinum customers will be exempt from the debit card fee, will not placate the majority of customers who will soon be charged the fee.

Other companies considering price increases or the implementation of new fees should learn a lesson from Netflix, which did an arguably poor job in communicating the context for its increase of fees. Even if you're in a position where you must pass along higher fees, it helps to explain the reasons for the increase. Otherwise the increase will seem like a slap in the face to its customers.  Again, I have no doubt that we'll see more companies considering raising prices and charging new fees in the near future -- and that there will be negative response if the increases are not communicated effectively.  What's also clear is that companies that mishandle their price increases may also pay a price -- in their stock price, as BofA and Netflix have seen.  With the right planning, companies can announce price changes that don't have to lead to crisis communications.