Friday, February 26, 2010

Is ABC Killing the Brand Known as "Network News"? -- Part Two

The cuts at the network news divisions is going to have an impact on the brand, as I mentioned in yesterday's article. What I didn't mention then is the impact digital journalism may have on PR functions.

With fewer resources, journalists will need to rely more on PR functions (departments, agencies) to get information, B-roll, etc.

There will be two challenges
  • Reaching these already too-busy reporters.
  • Getting them to trust that the content you're providing is of a high quality and factual.
It will be more important than ever to create compelling and accurate content across different media. That's one area for growth for PR firms.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Is ABC Killing the Brand Known as "Network News"?

According to the New York Times, "ABC News to Cut Hundreds of Staff Members," ABC will cut about 25% of its news staff or roughly 300 to 400 jobs.

The Times' Brian Stetler reported, "The cuts at ABC, a unit of the Walt Disney Company, are among the steepest ever conducted by a network news division, and are likely to be seen as a further erosion of the company’s news-gathering arm."

That's part of why I think ABC is killing the brand experience of Network News. I've seen Network News teams in operation. It's amazing what they can do, the resources they have access to, and the results they produce.

ABC is now saying it needs to rethink how it produces news. According to the Times, "The network will rely more heavily on 'digital journalists' who produce, record and edit much of their material."

That means fewer resources, more stressed reporters -- who are no longer just reporters because they will also be filming and editing their segments, too. News1 in New York has been doing that for years, and they do a good job -- but you can tell the difference between it and network segments.

Well, you used to be able to. Now, perhaps not. Now, citizen journalists may be able to produce segments that look as professional as the professionals.

Which may not be a bad thing.

Unless you're a network.

Interestingly, while ABC is rethinking how it produces its newscasts, the new executive in charge isn't planning many changes to the actual broadcasts themselves. That may be another problem.

For more, check out "At ABC News, A New Org Chart" and the actual memo available at Mediaite "ABC News Expected To Offer 'Hundreds' Of Buyouts Tomorrow."

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Is the Use of a Pseudonym Reason to Fire a Blogger?

The Wall St. Journal's Nick Wingfield wrote about Randall Kennedy, an InfoWorld blogger who used a pseudonym when interviewing sources for his blog. It's an interesting article, "The Second Life of a Tech Blogger."

Famous writers throughout history have used pseudonyms, including Benjamin Franklin, Walt Whitman and Samuel L. Clemens, to name a few. There's a grand tradition. Stephen King has published books using a pseudonym.

Of course, some of those named above are known for their fiction, not their reporting. But Franklin and Whiman wrote articles and reviews -- including some reviews of their own work -- using pseudonyms.

Today, they would be publicly fired for that.

Even the FTC expects bloggers to disclose tangible relationships with companies they blog about.

So, my question: should a blogger be fired for using a false name in researching and reporting opinion? Let me know what you think. (Of course, let me know if you don't want me to use your real name.)

Monday, February 22, 2010

Customer Service in the Social Media Age

Traditionally, many companies looked at customer service as a cost center, a necessary expense that had a negative impact on margins. They saw it as an obligation, and tended to underfund the fuction. Key metrics for customer service included: how quickly customer service representatives could resolve an issue (i.e., get a customer off the phone), and how inexpensively could the company train and pay its reps.

Those sort of metrics aren't designed to deliver customer service. They're designed to reduce the amount of time and resources are used to deal with customers. That was because companies looking to those metrics didn't realize they were engendering poor reputations that was hurting sales.

But in the Social Media Age, customer complaints are more easily aired to the world, on blogs, Twitter, Facebook and other platforms.

These days, a lot of companies are using Twitter as part of its customer service channel. They monitor what people are saying about their company, and try to address issues before they biol over. Frank, at @comcastcares does a great job helping Comcast customers resolve their problems. I posted a complaint about too many phony services calling me to update my free YellowBook online listing, and got an response from @Yellowbook_Help that was pretty helpful.

After it had implemented changes to save money around its customer service function, Dell found that it may have saved money but the cost-cutting move had a negative impact on sales. The realization among consumers that Dell was not paying attention to customer service erupted when influencer Jeff Jarvis posted his complaints on his BuzzMachine blog.

As aa result, Dell found that it had developed a poor reputation online due to poor customer service. The company realized it was losing potential sales due to poor customer service, and revamped its priorities.

Dell was smart enough to make changes. Dell now has well trained customer service reps who actually help its customers. The company also realized that it needed to have an online listening strategy to address consumer complaints aired in the blogosphere. This renewed focus on customer service has helped the company turn around what had been a negative reputation.

That doesn't mean there haven't been bumps in the road; there were some issues around Christmas around waiting times, but the company has decided to invest in customer service, and it has largely paid off.

Howver, there are a lot of companies that continue to the cost-savings approach to customer service, and have shown themselves to not be interested in actually delivering customer service. I will be writing about my recent experiences with Toys R Us in a future post.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Online CT Newsroom Shuts Down

Last year, we predicted that Online Sites Will Not be Immune to Advertising Slowdown. We saw some bumps over the past year. And today's New York Times had an interesting article about the role of local nonprofit political and news sites. Check out: It Won’t Line a Bird Cage, but It’s Still News.

Our Track Record on 2009 Predictions

A lot of organizations issue predictions without looking back to see what they got right and what they, um, didn't. We decided to take a look at the predictions we issued in Jan. 2009, Top 14+ Media Trends for 2009.

We did pretty well with those predictions:

  • We were right in saying we need a new term for newspaper once they stop printing on paper. However, our designated term "newssites" has not taken off.
  • We were (sadly) correct that a lot of print newspapers and magazines would shift to online-only in 2009. And we were right that some papers would rely more on charts, rankings and shorter articles to mimic online media while magazines would print thinner editions. And, as predicted, last year saw fewer magazine launches than prior years.
  • We saw more media layoffs in 2009, including cuts hitting online newsrooms. And we expected stringers and citizen journalists to contribute more content to mainstream media, which is a bit difficult to prove. Meanwhile, the New York Times got in trouble with its own ethics rules in working with some freelance reporters for potential and actual conflicts of interest. This seem to crop up with travel reporters for the Times' Sunday Travel section; that's not surprising because freelance travel writers often accept freebies to be able to afford to travel around the world. Accepting freebies, even for stories not published by the Times, goes against Times policy, and we think that's a bit of a mistake -- the Times isn't willing to offer these freelancers full-time positions yet expects them to live by the same rules as full-time Times staffers who get the benefit of a Times expense account and a Times' salary.
  • We were right that hyperlocal media continues to be important. But dozens of local suburban weekly newspapers also closed last year -- so as a strategy, a hyperlocal approach can not save papers from poor business decisions (i.e. debt load) of their parent companies.
  • Local TV did indeed hit a bumpy road, especially local affiliates of NBC -- not that we predicted the Leno experiment.
  • Twitter did become more prominent, with mainstream references to it.
  • Our prediction that people would start suffering from SNF (Social Networking Fatigue) -- did not happen in general last year. However, a few celebrities -- including Miley Cyrus and Ricky Gervais, who otherwise seem unlikely to share a point of view -- indeed seemed to be suffering from SNF, getting attention for quitting Twitter.
  • We were right that online reputation management would continue to be important. That will continue in 2010, too, though some companies still don't get it.
  • We got right some of the new features in Kindle 2.0, and were right that 2010 will be a bigger year for ebooks. Amazon sold a larger percentage of electronic books during the 2009 Christmas season than in the prior year.
  • We're pleased that the New York Times survived 2009. We were right that the Times would not sell the Boston Globe.
  • Rupert Murdoch did make more changes to the Wall St. Journal in 2009, but has not "tarted" it up. Yet.
  • As for the AP and changes to its model, pricing, etc., that's still too early to call. It did not happen in 2009, but it will come.

Now, if only the economy had been better...

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

What's the impact of the Leno-Letterman commercial

It was a great move by Letterman/CBS & Leno/NBC to run the commercial during the Super Bowl.

The ad was the funniest aired during the Super Bowl, and was one of the funniest things Leno has down in sometime. Inside baseball, sure -- my kids didn't get it -- but they're not the target audience for late night TV, yet. It showed they both could laugh at themselves, and it generated buzz, not a bad thing for either show. It won't stop the audience erosion that all network TV is experiencing, but it certainly gives adults a reason to talk about Letterman, Leno and their shows.

The real question is: what does Oprah get from appearing with Letterman in a second Letterman/Super Bowl commercial (as she did in 2007)? I'd say funny is funny, and that doesn't hurt.

WSJ parody: Interview with an Person Experiencing iPhone/iPad Withdrawal

Actually pretty funny.

Monday, February 8, 2010

2010 Predictions, 1 through 12

Each year, Birnbach Communications compiles an annual list of media trends for our clients, helping them to work more effectively with the media, both at traditional and online outlets, including blogs and social networking sites. Here's a list of some of our top trends in one place, to make it easier to review them all; let us know if you agree or disagree with what we've said.
  • Traditional print journalism will continue to be important. Even as the resources allocated to practicing it diminish -- fewer print newspapers, fewer reporters at those print papers, and less space in those papers -- yet traditional journalism conducted by newspapers will continue to drive content across the web. A 2009 study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found though there are a lot more places to find news online, "of the stories that did contain new information, nearly all, 95 percent, came from old media -- most of them newspapers." In other words, most of the news articles found online basically picked up content from traditional sources, like newspapers, adding some commentary, but not new facts.
  • Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010, and more will consider shutting down or transitioning to online-only, despite a (slower than we'd like) recovering economy. Although the number of magazines that shut down peaked in 2008, at 525, last year said goodbye to 360 magazines, including some major magazines like Gourmet, Metropolitan Home, Fortune Small Business. Last year also saw the deaths of major daily newspapers like the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer as well as dozens of smaller papers. Large newspaper companies also announced bankruptcies last year, and we expect more closings in 2010. There is some good news: advertising pages may be increasing, according to Q1 projections, but only by 3 percent. However, print subscriptions continue to decline, and we expect newsroom layoffs to continue. The lesson: magazines from big publishing companies and significant circulations were not immune. Already, BusinessWeek SmallBiz announced (via postcard) that its Dec. 09/Jan. 10 issue was its last.
  • 2010 will be the year of online subscriptions as publishers of all kinds are finding out that advertising-only-supported sites are not self-sustaining. Charging user fees will allow these sites to survive. The implications include:
  • Getting the price for online subscriptions will be important. After all, Newsday.com spent millions to redesign its site to put a pay-wall so it could charge readers $5.00 per week for access. In three months, Newsday.com generated only 35 subscribers. In contrast, the Wall St. Journal charges less than $100 for online access, with a discount for print subscribers.
  • Publishers will consider a number of different plans, ranging from a pay-wall which enables only paid subscribers to access content; a metered system that allows readers to sample a few articles before being asked to subscribe; premium access, in which many articles are free but more important ones are available only to paid subscribers; and a membership model like public radio.
  • One problem will be that, despite new subscription platforms from a variety of companies, from startups like Journalism Online (run by Steven Brill) to potential solutions from News Corp., Google, Microsoft and IBM. The challenge: if some publications don't charge, people will gravitate to those free services.
  • Online-only news outlets won't be immune to layoffs. They will find out cutting out printing and distribution costs isn't enough to be self-sustaining because they've given up a number of substantial revenue streams, too.
  • Online subscriptions won't limited to online news content. Twitter will unveil a business model that will likely be focused on charging fees to businesses that use Twitter. Rupert Murdoch, who is an ardent advocate of charging for online content, and owns a percentage of Hulu.com, will push Hulu.com to offer its video library on a per-viewing and on an unlimited basis. The same goes for some streaming music sites that currently are available for free.
  • Apple's iPad may make it easier for print newspapers to charge subscription fees for online access. A lot of print media are designing new layouts to take advantage of future tablet offerings.
  • Mobile access on hand-held devices like the iPad, netbooks, and increasingly powerful app phones, will become increasingly important in 2010. Content will need to be platform-agnostic, including audio and video, developed to meet the demands of several key platforms (and not just the iPad and iPhone). It's not just newspaper publishers who need to think cross-platform; it's all businesses, whether they're trying to reach consumers or B2B customers.
  • Top business and technology stories in 2010 are likely to include the following topics, though not necessarily in this order:
  • The economy, including the recovery, the housing market, auto industry and the "new normal."
  • The freelancing of the US workforce -- or how we'll all be contractors or "perma-temps" in the future (especially given the jobless nature of the recovery).
  • Apple's iPad and the future of mobile computing and Apple's iPads vs. cellphones vs. Kindle and other e-readers.
  • Cloud computing and virtualization -- and yes, we know: they're not the same thing.
  • Health care reform.
  • Regulations.
  • Google vs. Apple vs. Microsoft and EMC vs. HP vs. Oracle.
  • 3-D TVs.
  • The state of the media, especially print media, online-only business models and online subscriptions.
  • Twitter's business model.
  • Location-based services and behavioral targeting by advertisers.
  • Online privacy as social media, behavioral targeting, location-based services and hackers combine to make it easy for others to access personal information.
This is not to exclude the other topics we've included in our 2010 predictions.
  • In-flight Internet access will take off: We will see more in-flight Internet access in 2010 – by 2011; it won’t even be something airlines tout as another reason to fly with them. Lufthansa rolled out new service: web surfing from 30,000 ft at $3/min. (What does it cost for tech support?) We can expect more conference calls and emails, and flying cross country no longer means being unable to respond to email. But battery life, additional sockets, and headphones will be boom businesses. The rise of business videoconference calls may increase the noise level, but not to the point of requiring talking and no-talking sections. As with other aspects of high-speed Internet access, though the Internet was established in the U.S. , count on international airlines to be ahead of domestic airlines in the type of services offered travelers. (Coffee, Tea or Internet Access?)
  • Video may have killed the radio star but radio will continue to survive -- for now. But in two years, we may not be making the same prediction. Today's kids do not listen to radio as much as previous generations did. They listen to iPods, and soon, iPads. We believe that radio continues to be important, especially during drive-time commutes. We think record companies should continue to support radio stations because people still first hear new songs on radio and then decide to download songs (or buy CDs, if they're boomers) based on what they hear on the radio. But because today's children are not getting in the habit of listening to radio, and because today's homes are less likely to have radios other than as part of a stereo system, radio stations are going to need to find ways to reach and cultivate new listeners. That's where record companies can come in, to their mutual benefit. Of course, radio may survive during increasingly long commute times since more states have enacted laws that prohibit texting while driving or require drivers to use hands-free technology when using their cellphones.
  • The decline and fall of TV networks...won't happen in 2010, but networks are definitely on the decline. Case in point: "The Jay Leno Show" vs. "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien." In the end, NBC has been shedding viewers, and no change of hosts or programs may bring them back. It's not as though those viewers were sticking around for drama at 10 p.m. on other networks. Most likely they were turning to cable programs or on-demand offerings, TiVo, Hulu.com or the Internet.
  • Social media platforms will survive the recovery. Some critics have said that Twitter and Facebook did well during the downturn because people had available time, either because they had less to do or because they had lost their jobs. People will continue to use Twitter, Facebook and other social media services but they might not be updating their pages quite as often. Social media sites will consider rolling out new ways for users to post and engage via multimedia (audio and video).
  • Live integrated real-time interactive multimedia web events, which combine live video, and offering the ability to post and read comments on Twitter and Facebook windows, will become more common in 2010. Last year, Bill Cosby conducted the first-ever interactive townhall to introduce Cosnarati, a socially conscious hip hop group that he produces (http://www.ustream.tv/billcosby), offering a live videostream with a real-time Q&A function and the ability to post comments on Twitter and Facebook. The event gave users a number of ways to interact with Cosby, and could offer a solution for network TV -- if they can find a way to make money off it.
  • The intersection of social media and traditional journalism will be increasingly busy. For example, while the Super Bowl continues to be the biggest non-holiday event for which Americans gather together, and while people comment on the ads as much as the games, advertisers themselves are looking beyond the ads, often offering websites with extended versions of some ads, driving viewers to their sites. Another example: Olympic sponsors are changing their approach this year -- rather than having social media simply an add-on to advertising and their PR activities- they are embracing it/integrating it.
  • Online credibility will continue to be important, but new FTC rules requiring bloggers to disclose the receipt of free samples, gifts and cash payments will get confusing because many who don't blog are not required to make similar disclosures. Currently, tech reviewers at newspapers get free samples but don't need to disclose that fact (though Walt Mossberg and others do…on their websites and blogs). Theater reviewers often get free tickets while many freelance travel writers get all their travel "comped." Yet the FTC does not require these folks to disclose gifts unless they're bloggers. We actually think it makes sense to disclose any type of relationship with an organization being discussed because credibility is important for bloggers and non-bloggers. While it's good to see a government agency understand the need to keep pace with technology, we need clearer rules that ensure equal footing so that reviewers disclose relationships whether or not their work appears on a blog or in print.

Prediction #12: Online Credibility Will Continue To Be Important,

Online credibility will continue to be important, but new FTC rules requiring bloggers to disclose the receipt of free samples, gifts and cash payments will get confusing because many who don't blog are not required to make similar disclosures. Currently, tech reviewers at newspapers get free samples but don't need to disclose that fact (though Walt Mossberg and others do…on their websites and blogs). Theater reviewers often get free tickets while many freelance travel writers get all their travel "comped." Yet the FTC does not require these folks to disclose gifts unless they're bloggers. We actually think it makes sense to disclose any type of relationship with an organization being discussed because credibility is important for bloggers and non-bloggers. While it's good to see a government agency understand the need to keep pace with technology, we need clearer rules that ensure equal footing so that reviewers disclose relationships whether or not their work appears on a blog or in print.

Prediction #11: The Intersection of Social Media and Traditional Journalism Will Be Increasingly Busy

For example, while the Super Bowl continues to be the biggest non-holiday event for which Americans gather together, and while people comment on the ads as much as the games, advertisers themselves are looking beyond the ads, often offering websites with extended versions of some ads, driving viewers to their sites. Another example: Olympic sponsors are changing their approach this year -- rather than having social media simply an add-on to advertising and their PR activities- they are embracing it/integrating it.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Prediction #10: Live Integrated Real-time Interactive Multimedia Web Events Will Become More Common in 2010

Live integrated real-time interactive multimedia web events, which combine live video, and offering the ability to post and read comments on Twitter and Facebook windows, will become more common in 2010. Last year, Bill Cosby conducted the first-ever interactive townhall to introduce Cosnarati, a socially conscious hip hop group that he produces (http://www.ustream.tv/billcosby), offering a live videostream with a real-time Q&A function and the ability to post comments on Twitter and Facebook. The event gave users a number of ways to interact with Cosby, and could offer a solution for network TV -- if they can find a way to make money off it.

Prediction #9: Social Media Platforms will Survive the Recovery.

Some critics have said that Twitter and Facebook did well during the downturn because people had available time, either because they had less to do or because they had lost their jobs. People will continue to use Twitter, Facebook and other social media services but they might not be updating their pages quite as often. Social media sites will consider rolling out new ways for users to post and engage via multimedia (audio and video).

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Prediction #8: The Decline and Fall of TV Networks...Won't Happen in 2010...

But networks are definitely on the decline. Case in point: "The Jay Leno Show" vs. "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien." In the end, NBC has been shedding viewers, and no change of hosts or programs may bring them back. It's not as though those viewers were sticking around for drama at 10 p.m. on other networks. Most likely they were turning to cable programs or on-demand offerings, TiVo, Hulu.com or the Internet.

Forbes & Times Validate Prediction #5 by Writing about 3-D TV

Another day, another validation of our predictions. This time: Forbes, in an article, What's Better Than 3-D TV? 3-D TV And Beer! And the New York Times: The Pluses, and Oddities, of 3-D TV.

Last month, we issued a set of predictions that included top business story angles (available here). And very quickly, we're seeing those predictions validated by new reports and articles.

In its article, which appeared yesterday, Forbes took the approach that most others will take: That network TV is dead, and that the only way it can survive is to offer an experience not available from a laptop screen. (3-D TV also enables Hollywood studies to be able to sell the current slate of 3-D movies.) Or, here's how Forbes described the situation:

Paid-for television has precious few options when it comes to tackling the threat of video on the Web: grab more consumers by going online itself, come up with irresistible content you can't get anywhere but on the tube or entice them back to their TV sets with new technology so innovative they'll pay for it.

Prediction #7: Video May Have Killed the Radio Star but Radio Will Continue to Survive -- For Now

But in two years, we may not be making the same prediction. Today's kids do not listen to radio as much as previous generations did. They listen to iPods and soon, iPads.

We believe that radio continues to be important, especially during drive-time commutes. We think record companies should continue to support radio stations because people still listen to radio to discover new songs and then decide to download songs (or buy CDs, if they're boomers) based on what they hear on the radio.

But because today's children are not getting in the habit of listening to radio, and because today's homes are less likely to have radios other than as part of a stereo system, radio stations are going to need to find ways to reach and cultivate new listeners.

That's where record companies can come in, to their mutual benefit. Of course, radio may survive during increasingly long commute times since more states have enacted laws that prohibit texting while driving or require drivers to use hands-free technology when using their cellphones.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

NYTimes Quickly Validates Our Prediction about Online Subscriptions

Last month, we issued our annual list of predictions, and posted more details on Feb. 2, Prediction #3: 2010 will be the year of online subscriptions. In today's New York Times, blog favorite Richard Perez-Pena wrote, "Some News Outlets Ready to Try Charging Online Readers."

It's nice to be validated -- so quickly.

Prediction #6: In-flight Internet Access Will Take Off

We will see more in-flight Internet access in 2010 – by 2011; it won’t even be something airlines tout as another reason to fly with them. Lufthansa rolled out new service: web surfing from 30,000 ft at $3/min. (What does it cost for tech support?) We can expect more conference calls and emails, and flying cross country no longer means being unable to respond to email. But battery life, additional sockets, and headphones will be boom businesses. The rise of business videoconference calls may increase the noise level, but not to the point of requiring talking and no-talking sections. As with other aspects of high-speed Internet access, though the Internet was established in the U.S. , count on international airlines to be ahead of domestic airlines in the type of services offered travelers. (Coffee, Tea or Internet Access?)

Prediction #5: The Top Dozen Business & Technology Stories in 2010 Will Include...

Of course, there will be stories that we have not identified that could generate significant coverage in 2010. But based on what we know now, here's a list of some of the stories reporters are sure to be working on this year (though not necessarily in this order):
  1. The economy, including the recovery, the housing market, auto industry and the "new normal."
  2. The freelancing of the US workforce -- or how we'll all be contractors or "perma-temps" in the future (especially given the jobless nature of the recovery).
  3. Apple's iPad and the future of mobile computing and Apple's iPads vs. cellphones vs. Kindle and other e-readers.
  4. Cloud computing and virtualization -- and yes, we know: they're not the same thing.
  5. Health care reform.
  6. Regulations.
  7. Google vs. Apple vs. Microsoft and EMC vs. HP vs. Oracle.
  8. 3-D TVs.
  9. The state of the media, especially print media and advertising, online-only business models and online subscriptions.
  10. Twitter's business model.
  11. Location-based services and behavioral targeting by advertisers.
  12. Online privacy as social media, behavioral targeting, location-based services and hackers combine to make it easy for others to access personal information.
Please note: This is not to exclude other topics we've included in our 2010 predictions.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Prediction #4: Mobile access will become increasingly important in 2010

Mobile access on hand-held devices like the iPad, netbooks, and increasingly powerful app phones, will become increasingly important in 2010. Content will need to be platform-agnostic, including audio and video, developed to meet the demands of several key platforms (and not just the iPad and iPhone). It's not just newspaper publishers who need to think cross-platform; it's all businesses, whether they're trying to reach consumers or B2B customers.

Prediction #3: 2010 will be the year of online subscriptions

2010 will be the year of online subscriptions as publishers of all kinds are finding out that advertising-only-supported sites are not self-sustaining. Charging user fees will allow these sites to survive. The implications include:
  • Getting the price for online subscriptions will be important. After all, Newsday.com spent millions to redesign its site to put a pay-wall so it could charge readers $5.00 per week for access. In three months, Newsday.com generated only 35 subscribers. In contrast, the Wall St. Journal charges less than $100 for online access, with a discount for print subscribers.
  • Publishers will consider a number of different plans, ranging from a pay-wall which enables only paid subscribers to access content; a metered system that allows readers to sample a few articles before being asked to subscribe; premium access, in which many articles are free but more important ones are available only to paid subscribers; and a membership model like public radio.
  • One problem will be that, despite new subscription platforms from a variety of companies, from startups like Journalism Online (run by Steven Brill) to potential solutions from News Corp., Google, Microsoft and IBM. The challenge: if some publications don't charge, people will gravitate to those free services.
  • Online-only news outlets won't be immune to layoffs. They will find out cutting out printing and distribution costs isn't enough to be self-sustaining because they've given up a number of substantial revenue streams, too.
  • Online subscriptions won't limited to online news content. Twitter will unveil a business model that will likely be focused on charging fees to businesses that use Twitter. Rupert Murdoch, who is an ardent advocate of charging for online content, and owns a percentage of Hulu.com, will push Hulu.com to offer its video library on a per-viewing and on an unlimited basis. The same goes for some streaming music sites that currently are available for free.
  • Apple's iPad may make it easier for print newspapers to charge subscription fees for online access. A lot of print media are designing new layouts to take advantage of future tablet offerings.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Prediction #2: Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010

Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010, and more will consider shutting down or transitioning to online-only, despite a (slower than we'd like) recovering economy. Although the number of magazines that shut down peaked in 2008, at 525, last year said goodbye to 360 magazines, including some major magazines like Gourmet, Metropolitan Home, Fortune Small Business. Last year also saw the deaths of major daily newspapers like the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer as well as dozens of smaller papers. Large newspaper companies also announced bankruptcies last year, and we expect more closings in 2010. There is some good news: advertising pages may be increasing, according to Q1 projections, but only by 3 percent. However, print subscriptions continue to decline, and we expect newsroom layoffs to continue. The lesson: magazines from big publishing companies and significant circulations were not immune. Already, BusinessWeek SmallBiz announced (via postcard) that its Dec. 09/Jan. 10 issue was its last.

Prediction #1 for 2010: Traditional print journalism will continue to be important

Traditional print journalism will continue to be important. Even as the resources allocated to practicing it diminish -- fewer print newspapers, fewer reporters at those print papers, and less space in those papers -- yet traditional journalism conducted by newspapers will continue to drive content across the web. A 2009 study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found though there are a lot more places to find news online, "of the stories that did contain new information, nearly all, 95 percent, came from old media -- most of them newspapers." In other words, most of the news articles found online basically picked up content from traditional sources, like newspapers, adding some commentary, but not new facts.