2012 Trends Report Card, Part I

Before we issue our annual list of trends and predictions of media and social media issues later this month, here's our annual report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions.  Based on the trends we identified, the biggest stories in 2012 included cord cutting – dropping cable TV service either as a way to save money or to try new watch-anywhere apps such as Hulu Plus and Netflix – as well as cybercrime, 

General Consumer Trends

1.     The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012 & we may be immersed in social media, but we’ll spend less time with actual people. Over the past year, we saw lots of articles that validated these two predictions – that people were, in fact, looking to disconnect from being connected 24/7.  We also saw more reports validating the fact that social media actually makes us less socially inclined in the presence of actual people.  Overall, these two predictions were validated by The New York Times ("The Flight from Conversation," "Making Progress Against Clutter," “Dance the Smartphone Tango Without Me” & “Learning to Let Go: First, Turn Off the Phone”), Wall St. Journal (“Study: Face Time Benefits Preteens”) Boston Globe ("10 places where pleasure is the plug-in and only boats need a port" & "Giving screens -- and ago -- a week off"), The Atlantic Monthly ("Is Facebook Making Us Lonely?"), and other leading media outlets. We got both predictions right.  Grade: A+.

2.     Value will be king in 2012. As consumers look for value by checking deal sites like Groupon, LivingSocial and other sites offering discounts, we said to expect two questions to be asked: “Will Groupon turn out to be a good investment since its Nov. 2011 IPO at $20?” and “How many e-coupon sites do consumers want or need?” The answer to the first question is a resounding no – shares are trading at just $4.79 at the time of writing, which has resulted in a lot of noise about whether founder and CEO Andrew Mason’s future at the company. As to the second question, Motley Fool addressed it in a recent article, ”Is Groupon Trying to Become the Next Amazon?”, pointing to consumer “deal fatigue.”  We got this right but this topic of value and daily discount sites was not, in our opinion, a top story this year. Grade: B+

3.     Shifting to more efficient light bulbs in 2012 will not cause the end of the world. We said that despite media attention that people would be stockpiling 60-watt incandescent bulbs ahead of a legislative deadline replacing them with more efficient compact fluorescent bulbs or LED fixtures (a bill signed by Pres. Bush), this would be a non-story. We were right. Grade: A.

 

We'll issue more grades in tomorrow's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2012, Part I

We've been issuing annual predictions going back a decade now. Our goal is to help our clients more effectively understand and engage on topics of interest for social media.

We will be rolling out our 2012 list of trends over the next two weeks. Here are the first few:

1. The desire to be connected 24/7 may change in 2012. You almost never have downtime anymore, and people are beginning to notice that’s not all good.  Sure, if you are waiting in line at the post office or bank (something today’s kindergarteners won’t do by the time they hit college), you’ll be able to check email, play an app, text your friend, or make a call. But this lack of downtime may negatively impact our ability to concentrate and avoid distractions at work and at home. The recognition that we actually need to disconnect, that we need downtime, is likely to generate coverage this year. Already a handful of companies have limited email, both during the day and after hours – and we think more will join those ranks. We also think the concept of going on vacation without access to email or cell will become more of a status symbol because it now takes a lot of money to disconnect yourself from your regular workday.
2. We may be immersed in social media, but we’ll spend less time with actual people.
    So many people use social media sites – from Facebook, Google+, Twitter and LinkedIn, to Pinterest and Quora and more -- that people have less time to spend with their friends and family. We’re not sure if this will get much media coverage, but we’ve seen some books addressing the topic (like last year’s “Alone Together” by MIT Professor Sherry Turkle). We expect more attention will be paid as kids in schools face a new way to feel alienated.
3. Value will be king in 2012. Upscale consumers, suffering from frugal fatigue, have started spending again.  But for the 99% of us -- a phrase that will be popular throughout 2012, due to the presidential election -- will continue to look for value. That bodes well for Groupon, LivingSocial and other sites offering discounts. However, some companies have complained that they’ve lost money on their promotions through Groupon, so a question in 2012 could well be: “Do group discounts actually generate a return for companies?” Expect two other questions this year: “Will Groupon turn out to be a good investment since its Nov. 2011 IPO at $20?” and “How many e-coupon sites do consumers want or need?”

Let us know if you agree or disagree. And check back tomorrow for additional predictions.