Key Predictions for Trends in 2018, Part II

When we evaluated trends for 2018, we came up with more than five -- while avoiding politics. 

Here's what we're calling our Bonus Set of Predictions:

1.  The media landscape will change in 2018. Beyond newsroom layoffs and publication shut downs, which is upsetting, the media landscape will change in other ways in 2018, thanks to three deals: a DOJ-opposed AT&T -Time Warner combination, a more likely Sinclair Broadcasting purchase of Tribune Media, and a Disney acquisition of Fox’s TV and movie studios (but not Fox News, Fox Sports and Fox TV channel). If two of those three deals go through, expect others as defensive moves.  In an Internet of media choices, consolidation at this level may not be in the consumers’ interest.

2.  Artificial Intelligence and robotics, now interconnected, will continue to be “hot.” A.I. and robotics will be combined in articles (instead of considered separately as in prior years), and we expect to continue to see scare stories about a “robocalypse” in which A.I.-enabled robots replace human workers as well as more-reasoned articles that debunk the scare stories. We’re not as worried because there we think it will open other types of jobs, and that implementing A.I. seems inevitable because the potential benefits could be so significant. 

3.  Innovation often will come via business models. You might not be able to get a reservation at that great local restaurant you’ve been ordering from but that’s because of their delivery-only business model relies solely on mobile-ordering apps. By eschewing things like waitstaff, expensive leases, and needing to focus on turnover rates for tables, these restaurants are able to flourish in a notoriously tough sector. We expect coverage of that sort of innovation – not so much of technology but in the use of technology – to continue in 2018.

4.  Bitcoin and blockchain is hitting it big time. Lots of coverage. Still not mainstream but finally reaches a point where people who haven’t paid attention at least have heard of the two cryptocurrency terms.

5.  Is the internet dying? Long before the (possible) end of net neutrality, some have predicted that the internet is dying. The internet (which was once so important it was always capitalized) has been subsumed by apps and by Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft, which control much of the online ecosystem, from app stores to cloud storage to online ads. Ending net neutrality favors those five companies, while making it harder for small disruptive startups.

6.  The first amendment becomes a battle-ground issue. Between campus culture wars (regarding who can speak on campus and who can disrupt those who try to speak on campus), varying definitions of hate speech and the more-open expression of bigotry, the fight to protect free speech will generate coverage in 2018. Part of the challenge is a polarize climate is finding the balance between allowing free expression and preventing bigoted express.

7.  Millennials’ impact will change how companies market products and services. Currently America’s largest generation (sorry, boomers), millennials have had a significant impact on the workplace. In 2018, marketers will increasingly realize they need to change how they reach the 4.8 million 26-year-olds, and the millions of others currently 25, 27 and 24 as they encounter life-defining moments that include: choosing a career or to enter the gig economy; buying or renting a place to live, along with renovating or making repairs; taking on different responsibilities such as paying taxes and keeping track of their finances, including retirement; getting married, deciding whether or not to have kids and/or get a pet, and cooking. Millennials’ preferences and needs have already spawned new apps and services to deal with these responsibilities and choices. For example, we’re seeing a rise in food-delivery apps from restaurants that offer only takeout (not sit-down) service because they have a kitchen but no need for a dining room. We also expect a trend that began in 2017 to continue: companies will continue to develop educational programs such as classes, online tutorials and how-to videos on what the Wall St. Journal called “such basic skills as to mow the lawn, use a tape measure, mop a floor, hammer a nail and pick a paint color.” We also expect millennial preferences to become the default choice; for example, doorbells may become vestigial as millennials text, not ring, when they arrive at a friend’s house.

8.  Smart-Home automation will gain acceptance but still a niche offering. Smart homes are preferred in some markets by some buyers but not everyone wants them or values them yet. That said, smart home technology and appliances are getting easier to find, install and deploy. One possible driver of smart home tech could be counter-intuitive: with a growing population of seniors aging in their homes, their adult children may insist on installing tech that can help them monitor their parents. As long as the internet doesn’t crash, adult children will be able to check in on their parents, adjust heating and air conditioning (already possible with Nest and other devices), turn on lights and get help via apps that their parents may not have figured out. As tech-friendly boomers age in their own homes, expect them to embrace smart-home technology. We think Internet of Things (IoT) will continue to be a widely used phrase but that “smart home” is a more user-friendly term that may be easier to market. By the way, the biggest smart home tech segment will continue to be intelligent personal assistants like Amazon Alexa and Google Home speakers.

9.  The ranks of unicorn startups will grow but expect a backlash because unicorns are difficult to sustain. There’s a lot of money being thrown around, which is why we expect some of the enthusiasm for unicorns to diminish. It’s been very difficult to maintain a $1 billion-plus valuation in a meaningful exit. Also, we think New York Times tech columnist Farhad Manjoo is right when he said, a continued threat for startups is that just “fewer than 1 percent … end up as $1 billion companies” and that the Frightful Five (Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook and Microsoft) can out-pay key employees (an issue in the A.I. space), out maneuver or just invest in startups and co-opt them.

10. Religious nonprofits will be able to publicly make political endorsements, but doing so will change how they are perceived. As this is written, the GOP is discussing whether to eliminate the Johnson Amendment, which prohibits nonprofits from endorsing political candidates. We think Congress will repeal Johnson because it’s a campaign promise President Trump made. However, we think – and some, who otherwise hold opposing views, agree that it will affect how American’s perception when religious organizations are turned into political action committees. 

In our next post, we will post a set of ongoing trends that we think are important to keep in mind.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2014, Part III: 7 Tech Trends

Here's our list of top tech trends.

1. Cloud computing will still be the big tech trend.  Because it offers convenience, connectivity and ease of use, cloud computing will likely remain the big tech trend in 2014. Apps and other technology that build off the cloud to enable BYOD also will be important. Implications: Last year we said resistance to the cloud would be futile, and we think that’s true in 2014. There will also be lots of coverage of SaaS (Software as a Service). That said, it’s not enough to have a cloud or a SaaS story to tell. It just means there are more reporters who might be interested. The other, main implication for cloud is that it is designed to enhance collaboration among people; we expect more tools to help colleagues even family members to literally be on the same page (even if they're not using paper).
   
2. 2014 is the year people experience Tech Fatigue. We think consumers are showing some fatigue when it comes to new apps (we're not even using most of the apps we downloaded last year), new devices that offer only marginal improvements over prior versions (we’re a bit jaded/spoiled for our own good), multiple chargers and flavors of USB cords. The fatigue results from the fact that instead of simplifying our lives, some of our new tech actually makes our lives more complicated. Implications: While there's always a market for a new app that offers something fresh, we think the bar has been raised for new app developers. We think there's also a bit of fatigue with the number of devices we still carry -- even as smartphones incorporate other features like GPS, camera, e-readers. But you can have an iPhone, iPad and soon and iWatch. Then there is the need to keep all those devices charged and ready. And you can have an iPhone 4S and an iPad Air and need multiple cords. In fact, we expect more articles about the challenge of no barriers between work and personal life since the constant connectivity can be draining.
3. Cars and clothes will increasingly include design features for smartphones. Your phone, along with your keys and wallet, are things you always check before your leave the house. But cars designs haven’t adopted to that reality – yet. Unless you consider letting your phone bump around in your cup holder, there’s not elegant way to keep your phone accessible to make calls when you’re in your car.  That will change over the next three years but one debilitating factor is the wide range of shapes and sizes of smart phones and their chargers. Nonetheless, we expect more designs to make it easy to plug devices in -- in your car, bicycle, clothes. Implications: Designs need to validate how important our phones are to our lives; some coats and backpacks do, but most others do not. 
4. Upgrading the retail experience. Big retailers currently offer two types of experiences: in-store and online, and they are enough different that the only thing they have in common is the logo and color design. In 2014, we expect to see more focus on the retail experience -- bringing the best of the online experience to in-store and vice-versa. One way retailers will upgrade their in-store experience is through chain-specific apps and location-based marketing initiatives.Implications: We expect to see more online and in-stores redesigned to improve the experience, which includes the delivery of online purchases. Some of that will include further gathering of shoppers’ purchases as well as items they didn’t purchase so that retailers can offer better recommendation engines – even when you’re in a store.
5. Drone deliveries will not take place in 2014. Despite what Bezos promised, drones are not going to start delivering packages in 2014. And while it's probably not smart to bet against Bezos, the problems facing a commercial fleet of drones is staggering right now. That doesn't mean, however, that the idea of more efficient delivery systems will not be discussed. We expect to see more coverage of same day delivery and Sunday deliveries. Implications: As consumers Americans crave instant delivery of the items they bought so Amazon and others are going to continue to work to deliver purchased items faster. 
6. The continuing battle among huge companies. Google v. Apple v. Samsung v. Microsoft, Oracle v. Everyone Else. The big players will continue to battle it out against various competitors – when they’re not partnering with them in other areas. This is includes the battle focused on smartphones and tablets, which will generate a lot of coverage in 2014. Implications: Big media will continue to cover Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung as well as Facebook and Twitter. If you don’t work for any of them, you’ll likely have a more challenging time getting media coverage. 
7. Wearable technology is still ahead of the curve but will generate some coverage as part of the Internet of Things. While Google Glass generated a lot of coverage in 2013, it’s probably not ready for prime time. But other types of wearable technology – like exercise monitors such as Nike Fuel band or Fitbit – are convenient, easy-to-use and foolproof, and will be increasingly mainstream ways.  These devices -- and other, non-wearable technology like Nest Labs' thermostat and smoke detectors are Wi-Fi-enabled, sensor-driven, programmable and self-learning -- form the basis of what some call the Internet of Things, in which devices connect to update, aggregate data and become smarter. Implications: We expect increased connectivity to provide more updates to owners, whether updating us on window-washing fluid levels in your car (without having to open the hood) to appliances that self-diagnose or learn your habits.

You'll notice we have not included big data or mobile tech among our top seven trends. The reason for that is that we see them as part of ongoing tech trends, which we will be issuing shortly. Cloud computing made it to this list because we think it continues to be significant.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I or Part II.

Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2013, Part II

We expect the media to report on several tech battles in 2013 including:

·         The Battle for the Living Room.  Who can supply the highest of the ultra high definition TVs? At CES, there was a battle between OLED (organic light-emitting diode) versus 4K high definition known as UHD (ultra high def), which offers four times the pixels of 1080p high-def displays. However, a similar problem that plagues 3D TV – lack of 3D content – will likely plague UHD because UHD TVs work best with video shot in UHD. Additionally, UHD requires a lot of memory: UHD movies need 10 terabytes, which is about 2,500 times more than a standard HD movie and comes at a time when most Americans don’t even have one terabyte to hold all their movies and music. Another problem: The huge cost of UHD sets: an 84-inch set currently costs $25,000 – raising two important questions: “For the same money, do you buy a car instead?” And “Who has the wall space to display a seven-foot screen?

·         Battle between different streaming services and cable’s embrace of streaming.  Until last year, this was basically a battle between Hulu and Netflix and Amazon Prime. This year, the market got more crowded, with the entry of Redbox along with cable and satellite companies now offering streaming video.  Don’t expect prices to drop from around $5 to $10 per month.  (If people are subscribing to streamed video services to watch on their tablets, what are the implications for TV manufacturers getting ready to sell $25,000 TVs?) Because Netflix is the only public company offering streamed video, we expect that its earnings will get a lot of coverage because it will be seen as a belle weather for the entire industry.

·         The battle among huge companies. Apple v. Google v. Samsung and Microsoft. Oracle v. Everyone Else. The media have a boxing ring mentality: They love to report on the battle between two competing companies. So we expect continued high level of coverage of Apple, Google, Samsung and Microsoft in their battle for supremacy. Of course, those four hypercompetitive companies are often battling other companies as well. (Yes, we've included this prediction in prior years – we feel that the media continues to be fascinated by this story and see no end in sight.) Interestingly, over the past year, Samsung has leveraged Android to become a major global player in the smartphone and tablet sectors, which is having an impact on both Apple (as an iPhone and iPad competitor) and on Google (since Samsung, as the de facto Android leader, could ask to renegotiate its agreements with Google, cutting Google’s margins).

·         The Battle for Map Supremacy: Apple v. Google v. Nokia v. Microsoft v., Amazon. Apparently there’s big business in offering maps – even though most map providers don’t charge users for directions. Instead, they make money through mobile ads and services. We think that this should get more attention in 2013 as a result of Apple’s initial map app fail. Mapping is important because in order to be successful at enabling (and charging for) hyperlocal marketing, those companies need to be proficient at mapping.

 
Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I predictions.