As always, we will be rolling out other key trends over a series of blog posts but here are our top 3 predictions for 2020:
1. Distrust of Big Tech
and media fuels anxiety. In a divided America, where even advertising decisions can cause
Twitterstorms, companies need to find ways to be credible as well as relevant.
There’s no simple solution for Big Tech like Apple, Amazon and Google regarding
safeguards on the data they collect on all of us — part of surveillance capitalism, in which data is collected, correlated with behavior and monetized — or for social media because
there’s no clear or consistent definition of what constitutes misinformation or
how to limit it without infringing on protected free speech. There’s also no
easy solution for the media, where even the “facts” may be disputed. Unfortunately,
deepfakes (AI-generated fake videos and other images) will make it harder to
know what’s real. This will fuel feelings of anxiety, anger, exhaustion, and isolation,
regardless of political perspective. We expect many Americans will look for
solutions and companies that provide joy, comfort, assurance and reliability to
bolster their sense of well-being and connection.
2. The loss of local news
coverage will continue, and will erode trust. More than one in five local papers have
closed since 2004, according to the UNC School of Journalism and Media, while
others have become hollowed out through layoffs. This is a real problem since local
news outlets are often part of the fabric that holds communities together. According
to “Losing the News: The Decimation of Local Journalism,” by PEN America, “The
connection between local journalists and their communities is essential…
Seventy-six percent of Americans report trusting their local TV news, and 73
percent report trusting their local newspapers; by contrast, 55 percent of
Americans trust national network news and 59 percent trust national
newspapers.” For marketers, fewer journalists and outlets makes it harder to
reach customers, partners, investors and employers with their messages.
3. Streaming
services will get a lot of media and consumer attention. HBO Max and NBC’s Peacock will
battle for attention and subscribers with Netflix, Hulu, Apple+,
Disney+, Amazon Prime, and other streaming services in the “streaming wars.” But it’s not a zero-sum
game; there’s room for a range of services that have different strategies in
their content libraries, pricing and offerings. We do expect a certain amount
of churn/volatility as people subscribe to binge a particular show and drop it till
the next season begins. The growing number of these ad-free streaming content services
will make it harder for marketers to reach a mass audience.
As always, let us know if you agree or disagree with these.
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