Pew Research Validates Fragmentation As An Ongoing Trend

According to a new Pew Research Center report on media polarization, Americans place their trust in two nearly inverse news media environments.

According to Pew, not surprisingly, 65% of Republicans and those leaning toward the GOP trust Fox News. By contrast, Democrats and those who lean that way, 67% trust CNN, 61% trust NBC, and 60% trust ABC. 

Again, without taking a stance either Republican or Democratic, this is not surprising but provides some context for what we predicted back in January (which feels like a different era): further fracturing and fragmentation of the media and the country. This Pew report confirms our prediction that Americans are divided by news sources, and that further fragments our country.

Companies need to find ways to talk with both sides. Not to be cynical about it but to be successful, marketing functions will need to be able to tell their stories in two ways, to tailor the story to appeal to two different sets of news teams to reach people on both sides of the aisle.

That's not always easy to do, of course. But it does speak to developing customized pitches (as opposed to sending out a single generic pitch) to the media. It takes more time but could expand coverage of your story.

Axios Validates Our Prediction about Distrust in the Media Being a Big Factor

For this year's top 3 trends, we picked "Distrust of Big Tech media fuels anxiety," published Jan. 8, and Axios validated that in it's newsletter from Jan. 18, noting:

"This trust crisis — flagged for us as part of a larger presentation by lobbyist Bruce Mehlman — is based on polling that shows how little confidence the public has in powerful players and institutions."

We don't like the situation but "trust chasm," unfortunately, is an appropriate term to describe where we are as a country. 

The rest of the Axios article looks at the implications of the trust chasm in terms of how it may play out in November but we see trust issues having an impact on Big Tech and other parts of the economy.  According to the New York Times, "'Techlash Hits College Campuses: Facebook, Google and other major tech firms were every student's dream workplaces. Until they weren't," mistrust of Big Tech is hurting recruitment. (By the way, Mehlman's presentation is interesting and worth checking out but focuses on political issues.) 

Our point: trust is important in all kinds of relationships. Companies need to building up their credibility in order to maintain positive relationships with customers, employees, partners and others. And that can be challenging, given the ease with which negative information can get shared via social media. 

This will be something that companies need to keep in mind as they go about their business in 2020.

2019 Was A Tough Year for the Media: Nearly 8,000 lost their jobs. It will continue in 2020

Last year started off badly for US journalism, with more than 1,000 job loses by February. Unfortunately, that trend continued, with more than 7,800 layoffs by December, according to a Business Insider article.

That's a startling number.

For context, BI noted that "it's estimated that some 5,000 media jobs were cut from the market from 2014 to 2017." So nearly 50 percent more losses in one year than were lost in three years combined.

What's surprising is that the layoffs didn't hit only newspapers. (1 in 5 local newspapers have closed down since 2004.)

There were big loses in big-name online sites including BuzzFeed, Vice Media, Verizon Media, Bustle, Quartz, and more. For Verizon's media units, Yahoo, AOL and Huffpost, there had been two sets of layoffs in 2019, resulting in the loss of 830 media jobs. (This does not include 10,400 losses-by-byouts in other Verizon jobs.)

Gannett, which merged with GateHouse Media in December to become the largest newspaper publisher by circulation, cut 400 jobs at its newspapers around the country, including US Today. Entrepreneur laid off four editorial staffer, restructuring on digital offerings. Jet, Ebony and New York Magazine announced lay offs, too. For us, a big sentimental loss was that of Mad magazine, which announced it would stop publishing new content, affecting 10 staffers and hundreds of freelancers.

The Washington Post eliminated its free commuter paper, the Express , after 16 years, because it found that the young readers it was aiming for no longer picked up a free -- that's right, free -- edition as they hopped on the Metro. That's because they accessed news on their phones (something that hadn't been around when the Express was launched). That's not the only free commuter newspaper to fold. Metro Boston, another free commuter paper, suddenly shut down this month after 19 years, after its sister publications, Metro New York and Metro Philadelphia, were sold. Metro Boston had a circulation of 300,000 in 2005 but fell to about 50,000 in 2019, the Boston Business Journal reported. 

Sports Illustrated, which was licensed to The Maven, cut "nearly 40 staffers...(with) plans to replace some full-time positions with contract" writers. And there are serious concerns about quality of the product because contract freelancrs are required to write many more articles for far less money -- especially upsetting because SI has long had the highest standards in sports journalism.

There were also broadcast losses at NBC, ESPN, NPR, CNN, Disney (as the result of its acquisition of 21st Century Fox movie studio).

The Youngtown Vindicator ceased publishing around its 150th anniversary, the Cleveland Plain Dealer laid off 12 additional newsroom employees along with as many as 30 production jobs. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch announced 23 jobs axed, Dallas Morning News eliminated about 20 newsroom jobs and the New Orleans Times-Picayune laid off all its staffers after being acquired by the Advocate, a competing newspaper.

The concern about the loss of local news media is that it has implications for the communities in whcih they operate. For example, local news media tend to be more trusted that national media. Local media help support local organizations in the community, helping to provide a sense of community. And they keep the community informed about issues affecting them.

U.S. news media used to be able to count on advertising and subscription revenue to fund operations but the shift to online or app has reduced both revenue streams, but especially advertising revenue. Unfortunately, with a few exceptions, there seems to be no sustainable business model that will help keep news outlets in business. We expect some uptick in revenue in battleground states, thanks to the presidential election but that won't last.

Which means: we expect more layoffs in 2020 and 2021. So we ask marketers to consider finding ways to support media.

Birnbach Communications Issues Top 3 Predictions for 2020

For the 18th year, here are our predictions for the upcoming year. 

As always, we will be rolling out other key trends over a series of blog posts but here are our top 3 predictions for 2020:

1.   Distrust of Big Tech and media fuels anxiety. In a divided America, where even advertising decisions can cause Twitterstorms, companies need to find ways to be credible as well as relevant. There’s no simple solution for Big Tech like Apple, Amazon and Google regarding safeguards on the data they collect on all of us — part of surveillance capitalism, in which data is collected, correlated with behavior and monetized —  or for social media because there’s no clear or consistent definition of what constitutes misinformation or how to limit it without infringing on protected free speech. There’s also no easy solution for the media, where even the “facts” may be disputed. Unfortunately, deepfakes (AI-generated fake videos and other images) will make it harder to know what’s real. This will fuel feelings of anxiety, anger, exhaustion, and isolation, regardless of political perspective. We expect many Americans will look for solutions and companies that provide joy, comfort, assurance and reliability to bolster their sense of well-being and connection.

2.  The loss of local news coverage will continue, and will erode trust. More than one in five local papers have closed since 2004, according to the UNC School of Journalism and Media, while others have become hollowed out through layoffs. This is a real problem since local news outlets are often part of the fabric that holds communities together. According to “Losing the News: The Decimation of Local Journalism,” by PEN America, “The connection between local journalists and their communities is essential… Seventy-six percent of Americans report trusting their local TV news, and 73 percent report trusting their local newspapers; by contrast, 55 percent of Americans trust national network news and 59 percent trust national newspapers.” For marketers, fewer journalists and outlets makes it harder to reach customers, partners, investors and employers with their messages.

3.  Streaming services will get a lot of media and consumer attention. HBO Max and NBC’s Peacock will battle for attention and subscribers with Netflix, Hulu, Apple+, Disney+, Amazon Prime, and other streaming services in the “streaming wars.” But it’s not a zero-sum game; there’s room for a range of services that have different strategies in their content libraries, pricing and offerings. We do expect a certain amount of churn/volatility as people subscribe to binge a particular show and drop it till the next season begins. The growing number of these ad-free streaming content services will make it harder for marketers to reach a mass audience.

As always, let us know if you agree or disagree with these. 

BuzzFeed, Gannett, HuffPo All (Unfortunately) Validate Our Prediction About Media Layoffs

In our blog from Dec. 19, 2018, "4 Additional Media Trends for 2019: including 'News Fatigue,'" we noted, "Digital media isn't the sure thing it was once thought to be, despite the lack of traditional media's baggage (like lack of printing presses)."

Specifically, we predicted:

The incredible shrinking newsroom. A decade ago, most newsrooms used to employ more reporters to cover the news, and the amount of pages that newspapers and magazines had to fill was larger. Today, news reporters have to cover more news with fewer resources and less space. Locally, at the Boston Business Journal, a terrific weekly, staff reporters typically file four or so stories a day, may have a weekly newsletter they produce and then must write a longer article for the weekly printed edition. Radio reporters now also have to write up a print story for the website in addition to producing their stories for the radio. All of this is to say that there are fewer reporters and they have to produce much more. This makes it challenging for them to take meetings, cultivate sources, uncover stories that need to be told. According to the UNC School of Media and Journalism's Center for Innovation and Sustainability in Local Media, the result of all this is that "Many newspapers have become ghosts of their former selves, both in terms of the quality and quantity of their editorial content and the reach of their readership."

Unfortunately, that prediction was validated by Axios in January: "More than 1,000 media jobs lost in one day." Many of those jobs cuts were handed down by BuzzFeed, which eliminated 250 jobs; Gannett, which cut more than 20 jobs; and Huffington Post, a division of Verizon. Overall, Verizon Media cut 800 jobs, approx. 7 percent of its global workforce. Axios also noted job losses at Vox and Refinery29, two digital-only media sites.

According to Axios, the shrinking newsroom "exists at the local, national and global levels, and across digital, print and television operations." For another article about the problems of newsrooms, check out AdWeek's "Layoffs Likely to Continue in This ‘Wrenching’ Period for Media Industry."

Axios also sees the impact on "the cheap sales of websites that had raised tons of money, like Mic.com and Mashable.

Those two sites are still producing interesting, good journalism but their troubles may be self-fulfilling. In conversations this past week, we were asked about getting into Wired, the Times, Wall St. Journal and TechCrunch by several new and prospective clients. But no one asked about Mashable -- which would have been on that list two years ago.

We're not trying to throw shade at Mashable; again, we're fans just as we're fans of Re/code.

Our point is this: good, credible journalism is only one factor you need to have a successful news organization.

There are a number of variables news organizations need to have a profitable, sustaining business model. You need to figure out the costs and resources (editors, reporters, tech people and infrastructure to deliver the news) and how to pay for that (paywall, phased paywall or no paywall; subscriptions, advertising, native ads and clickbait, sponsorships and underwriters for nonprofit outlets.

Unfortunately, while there are many news sites and tech news sites, very few have made it work. Which means that we expect the newsroom to continue to shrink. And we wish we weren't right about this.

We certainly don't have an answer to the business problems plaguing the news sector. But do you? Let us know if you have any suggestions.

4 Additional Media Trends for 2019: including "News Fatigue"

We live in a media-centric world. And by "we," we certainly mean Birnbach Communications but we also mean Americans. That's true even as:

• Traditional media has been facing a tough time because their business models have been failing, despite a significant uptick in the demand for news.
• Digital media isn't the sure thing it was once thought to be, despite the lack of traditional media's baggage (like lack of printing presses).
• Local media outlets have been shutting down, despite the common wisdom that hyperlocal was a solution.
• People aren't reading newspaper content on paper (but on screens) or watching TV shows on TV (but on screens).

Last week, we issued our top five media trends that included: the rise of streaming content; the age of mass media is dead; the broken business model and the rise of "news deserts"; social media under scrutiny; and more apps will try to fight/block fake news.

But we have more -- yes, more -- media predictions. Keep in mind that some of these are based on predictions we made for 2018 but it's important to note that we believe this trends will continue, which is why they didn't make our top 5 but why we're included them here:

1.  The shorter/faster news cycle is distracting Americans and causing news fatigue. We're suffering from news fatigue -- overwhelmed by news notifications on our phones that seems to buzz every hour. There’s never enough time to process significant news before we’re buzzed by the next alert (that may not be relevant). News is so pervasive it overtakes previously non-politicized events like sporting events, entertainment industry award ceremonies, family holiday meals, etc. That buzz is so addictive that people actively check social media to get the latest shocking news. Even reporters who don’t cover politics flood their social media timelines with political news (regardless of their political beliefs), making it harder to get their attention when pitching them. The 24/7 distraction also makes it harder for people to pay attention to your story – so it may take more touchpoints to break through the clutter.
2. The incredible shrinking newsroom. A decade ago, most newsrooms used to employ more reporters to cover the news, and the amount of pages that newspapers and magazines had to fill was larger. Today, news reporters have to cover more news with fewer resources and less space. Locally, at the Boston Business Journal, a terrific weekly, staff reporters typically file four or so stories a day, may have a weekly newsletter they produce and then must write a longer article for the weekly printed edition. Radio reporters now also have to write up a print story for the website in addition to producing their stories for the radio. All of this is to say that there are fewer reporters and they have to produce much more. This makes it challenging for them to take meetings, cultivate sources, uncover stories that need to be told. According to the UNC School of Media and Journalism's Center for Innovation and Sustainability in Local Media, the result of all this is that "Many newspapers have become ghosts of their former selves, both in terms of the quality and quantity of their editorial content and the reach of their readership." (See credibility issues, below.)
3. The credibility of news media is under attack. There is at least one area of commonality between liberals and conservatives: each group has key media it favors (due to confirmation bias, i.e., their echo chamber) and those outlets whose reports they disagree with and don't believe. Americans increasingly hate either Fox or CNN; the New York Times or Wall St. Journal, for example. With Trump and others calling articles they don't like "Fake News" or "the enemy of the people," and people on the other side pointing to Hannity (who had said he wouldn't campaign for Trump but then came out on stage at Trump's last rally before the midterms), etc., the problem is that the credibility of journalist and media outlets across the spectrum is now being questioned.  That's a real problem for PR functions and agencies who work with reporters, editors and producers to tell their clients' stories. If there are those who disbelieve the New York Times or Wall St. Journal, will they believe your organization's news in those or other outlets? Seems doubtful. 
4. The war on screen time. There will be greater acknowledgment that we’re all on screens too much throughout the day. It’s a problem for everyone, not just adults. We expect more people – suffering from news fatigue, will turn off notifications on their phones so they don’t get interrupted/distracted as much. And somewhat ironically, there will be apps, like Apple’s "Screen Time" and Google’s "Family Link," a parental controls app, that will help you manage your screen addictions.

We've previously mentioned news fatigue in posts about living in the "Age of Anxiety" and are including it in our 2019 set of predictions because we think both will continue (we're not out of the anxiety woods yet and were going to continue to suffer from news fatigue for some time to come.

We will post more of predictions over the next few weeks. Let us know what you think.

Birnbach Communications Issues Five Media Predictions for 2019

For the 17th year, here are our top media, social media and marketing predictions for 2019. It is a disruptive time for the media, bringing both chaos and opportunities.

Without further ado, here are five of the agency’s top 5 media trends for 2019:

1.      The growing number of streaming content services make consumers harder to reach. The number of people who stream content as well as the number of apps providing on-demand content is rapidly growing. Already 61 percent of Americans, age 18 to 29, regularly watch or listen to what they want, where and when they want it, according to Pew Research. Apps for CBS, TBS, NBC and ABC are ad supported – only by national brands – but more dominant services including Netflix, Amazon Prime, HBO Go, Hulu Plus, YouTube Red, and Spotify Premium are ad-free, putting their subscribers out of reach for marketers.

2.      The age of the mass media is mostly over. It’s a niche world now. Partly that’s because marketers can now reach very specific audiences, along with nanoinfluencers, since online media can tailor content by gender, age, interest, political persuasion, etc. (Unfortunately, print media also is increasingly becoming niche, due to an ongoing reduction of the number of pages and size of their news staff combined with an increase in subscription rate.) In 2019, it’s complicated and expensive to reach a broad audience so marketers need to consider targeting key audiences through niche media.

3.      The broken business model for news will cause continued problems in 2019, including an increase in “news deserts.” It’s not only print media that will struggle in 2019, online media will struggle, too. The reason: online subscription fees are lower than print subscriptions and online ads generate less money that print ads (even though online ads provide much more useable data). We expect, unfortunately, more layoffs, smaller printer runs, smaller and less frequent issues – both online and in print. In 2019, we're going to see a growing number of "news deserts," defined by the UNC School of Media and Journalism's Center for Innovation and Sustainability in Local Media, as "a community, either rural or urban, with limited access to the sort of credible and comprehensive news and information that feeds democracy at the grassroots level." News deserts are a problem because it means communities aren’t getting critical information related to civic life, government services, etc.

4.      Social media will continue to undergo scrutiny and it won’t look good. And despite that, people still won’t quit Facebook, Twitter, etc. amid growing concerns about privacy and disinformation campaigns. We expect Congress and the EU, the UK and other governments to look to regulate social media. But we also expect that most won’t be able to regulate effectively because most politicians don’t have a firm grasp of how social media works. There will be more hearings but not many solutions because it’s a complex issue that algorithms alone can’t solve.

5.      More apps will try to combat fake news. Already there are at least a dozen initiatives – with names like The Trust Project, News Integrity Initiative NewsGuard, The Journalism Trust Initiative, Accountability Journalism Program, Trusting News, Trust & News Initiative and the oddly named Media Manipulation Initiative. Many are funded and staffed by journalists and also use algorithms to detect fake news. We hope they succeed but suspect they’ll be as successful as Tumblr, Facebook and Twitter have been to fight hate speech -- which is to say: not very effective but better than nothing. (A.I. will get a lot of attention but trust in algorithm will decline.) In the meantime, Axios’s Jim VandHei offered some suggestions: Stop using the term – it doesn’t help. And people should “Quit sharing stories without vetting them.” (We don’t think that will happen, either.)

In addition to these media predictions, we will roll out additional trends focusing on technology, fintech, artificial intelligence, retailapoclypse, the labor shortage and gig economy, and other topics here on our blog at blog.birnbachcom.com.

Please let us know what you like or disagree with. We'd love to hear from you. As usual, next November, we will evaluate how we did with this year's predictions.

5 Top Media Trends for 2018

While our annual trends, published as always in December in the prior year, covers a lot of sectors -- some directly based on client sectors, some based on sectors that interest us -- what interests us most overall are the trends affecting the media.

The media is really the organizing principle for all our trends.

So while we issued our predictions across three different blog articles, they were often based on what we saw as top priority/most important trends as well as ongoing trends that will continue to be relevant in 2018.

In the article, below, which originally appeared Feb. 15, 2018 in CommPro.biz, a dynamic site for communication professionals, I broke out top trends affecting the media. You can read the full article, below, or check it out at the original site at CommPro.biz.

If there’s one thing we’ve all learned over the last few years, it’s that we live in a media-centric world. Love it or hate it or don’t believe it, whether traditional media or social media, the media affects us all, and it is helpful to understand the trends affecting the media.

For nearly two decades, we’ve compiled an annual list of trends based on a wide-ranging review of the media world and interactions with media influencers. Here are our five top media trends.

1. The news cycle will continue to speed up. If you didn’t understand before how it was a curse, we certainly live in interesting times. The news cycle has gotten faster – with news alerts popping on our phones several times an hour. News that would have been significant a few years ago quickly gets pushed aside, and no one wants to miss the latest shocker. Regardless of political views, people are finding this exhausting. Even late-night comedians are complaining.
2. People will be more anxious and angry. The constant barrage of news, along with the need to comment or read others’ comments, is turning this into the Age of Anxiety and Anger. Another cause: screen addiction and the expectation of needing to be connected 24/7 to our online communities – so you never have to feel alone – but it actually leaves most of us feeling more empty, worried and angry than before, even if factoring out politics. We anticipate more coverage on stress, anxiety, mental health and ways to de-stress, which includes taking a break from your device – aka a technology cleanse or digital detox – which is healthy and a good idea but may be impossible.
3. 2018 will be tough for traditional and online media.  News consumption has increased, but not enough of us want to pay for the news. Great reporting takes effort and lots of resources but sharing news on social media doesn’t help pay for reporting. So traditional and even online media need to develop new advertising and subscription-based business models. Another thing that will affect the media landscape: if either or both of the AT&T-Time Warner and Sinclair Broadcasting-Tribune Media deals get approved.
4. Fake news won’t fade in 2018. If we can’t even agree on a definition of fake news, it will be impossible for Facebook, Google and Twitter to design algorithms and for Congress to enact regulations to stop fake news. (What’s sad: It’s still easier and more lucrative to generate totally fake news than it is to produce real, fact-based news.)
5. Cord cutters won’t save money or money. At some point, cord cutters may realize they’re not really saving money they still need to pay for internet access while also paying for a slew of must-have streaming services. Worse, accessing all those different streaming services on your TV (remember those?) is still more clunky and time-consuming than using a cable box to find the movie or TV show you want.

Unfortunately, these trends are likely to continue unchanged into the future. But, as we’re all impacted by the media, it’s important to understand how they – and we – are being affected.

New Popular Naming Strategy: Drop Part of Your Corporate Name

The latest popular corporate naming strategy is pretty basic. Recently, Walmart Stores, Dunkin' Donuts and Business Insider have all dropped part of the name to become Walmart, Dunkin' and Insider, respectively.

For Walmart, the move is to position the company as an e-commerce player.

For Dunkin's, it's to move beyond just donuts.

And For Insider, it's because they now cover more than just business.

That strategy may be a problem for companies with only one name. 

Of course, Fox seems like it will drop its name, if the acquisition with Disney goes through.

Usually, we recommend against changing a company's name, especially if there's a lot of brand equity in the current name. And we have some skepticism that a name change makes much of a difference. (A new logo, on the other hand, can make a difference.) But with Walmart, that's what everyone calls it, anyway, so we doubt it will make much of a difference.

The same with Dunkin's.

That may not be true of Business Insider, a good online news site. Insider sounds like a TV celebrity gossip show more than a reputable news source. But, as we mentioned in our trends, 2018 will be a tough year for online news sites. So we expect more changes. And we wish Insider the best of luck.

TrendReport 2016: How We Did WIth Our Predictions for This Year

Other people look forward to the end of the year for holidays, but we look forward to looking back at our predictions to see how well we did.

Before getting to the results of how we did on the trends we picked, let's start by noting which trends did not pick. First, we stayed away from talking politics and making predictions about the election -- and we're glad we did. (While our parents told us not to talk about politics, we are interested aspects that affect the media, and we will pick up some of the implications in our predictions for 2017 -- so stay tuned.) We also failed to predict that the Chicago Cubs would win the team's first World Series in 108 years (but we'll go on record that Theo Epstein, who was in charge when the Red Sox won its first championship in 86 years and was the brains behind the Cubs, is a lock to make it into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame).

Here's a look at how we did on the predictions we did make:

1.      The media will have a good year. Overall, 2016 was a difficult year for the media so we got this one mostly wrong. That said, from a business perspective, we said, "Some media outlets still haven’t figured out how to build a sustainable business model from paywalls, online ads, and native advertising (aka clickbait)" -- and we were right about that. But campaign dollars did not do as much as we thought to boost traditional media revenues. Worse, the credibility of the media was attacked by both political parties and by the media itself. This is a serious problem, especially considering the attack on "facts" that occurred as a result of this year's political campaign. Grade: B-.

2.      Drug pricing will get a lot of attention. We got this one right. There was a lot of media and social media attention, mostly regarding the rising cost of EpiPens. What we overestimated was the level of action that Congress took (not much beyond some hearings). Grade: A-.

3.      Tech turns into Towers of Babel. We overstated the situation for Internet of Things. It made progress but not yet the way we thought. It did turn into something of a backdoor security issue, and we certainly can expect more of that to come. Grade: C+. 

4.      The rise of Artificial Intelligence. We said, "The ways we can use AI and machine learning will increase in 2016, helping us make better business, personal and health decisions and helping to address security concerns." We think that's right (and we're not saying if our use of AI helped us come to that conclusion. People will continue to be concerned about the implications of AI, but like IoT, we think those fears won't slow down acceptance. Grade: A.

5.      Whither unicorns and their business models? We got this right, too: Some unicorns – startups valued at upwards of $1 billion – faced some serious issues. Even as Trump used Twitter to win the election (according to him), Twitter the company encountered problems as it tried to sell itself to companies no longer interested in the little blue bird. We believe it will be increasingly difficult for Unicorns or Unicorn-wannabes in 2017. Grade: A.

6.      Content management remains king. This was an easy one. Grade: A.

7.      More will cut the cord in 2016. Despite this headline, we actually said that "we expect some people not to cut the cord because it’s more complicated and not necessarily cheaper if you cut the cable cord." But we did say that people are more likely to watch TV on devices as opposed to gathering around a big screen TV to watch as a family; that's on the decline. Grade: A.

8.      The importance of a college education will continue to generate media interest. Student debt was a topic during the primaries but faded as the campaign went on. So we mostly overstated this; we also said that the nature of education will have to change in an age of instant access to facts, making memorizing certain facts not as helpful as actually understanding the underlying issues around history, science, literature, etc. Grade: B-.

9.      The gig or on-demand economy will continue to grow. We're not sure if the number of people in the gig economy has increased -- since we don't know if there's an accurate way to measure the gig economy -- but there has become more media coverage and mainstream. Grade: A.

10.   Virtual Reality won’t go mainstream, yet. Media outlets like the New York Times, Wall St. Journal and USA Today now offer virtual reality content but VR is still much more of a novelty than an accepted mainstream technology. It could become more mainstream by 2018. Grade: A.

11.   The market for wearable tech and for IoT will continue to grow. But it didn't grow as much we expected. Grade: B.

12.   3D printers will be popular in schools. We said don't expect 3D printers in every home just yet. We were right. Grade: A.

13.   Crowdfunding will lose buzz. People are still using crowdfunding but we feel we were right that "the novelty of crowdfunding... (will) fade. Grade: A.

14.   eBook sales will plateau. We don't think eBooks will fade but we were right in that there wasn't much media buzz about eBooks in 2016. Grade: A. 

15.   Drones may start falling back to earth. Consumer drones like the one that fell on the White House lawn (in 2015) have caused some issues and demands for regulating their use, but drones are not the buzzy media topic they once were, as we predicted (and as validated by the New York Times’ Farhad Manjoo. Grade: A.

16.   Will FinTech shake up traditional banking? Apps that support banking and financial services, like Apple Pay, Google Wallet and others, are disrupting (or disintermediation) traditional banks. But credit cards are not about to be displaced so easily, which is why we think FinTech isn't really shaking up the industry yet. No doubt it will get there, within three to five years. Until then, don't throw away your check books. Grade: A.

17.   China may live in interesting times. China got the media's attention -- including for regarding the valuation of the Renminbi and cybercrime perpetrated against the U.S. and U.S. businesses -- but not as much as we expected. We think the new administration will focus more attention on China. Grade: B-.

18.   The concern about cybersecurity, privacy, encryption and government surveillance is already changing. Last year, we did not predict that Wikileaks, with apparent help from Russia, would play such a significant role in this year's election. But the party that did not get hacked is being led by someone who seemed to campaign on the promise to do more with cybersecurity to catch domestic-based terrorists before they carry out attacks. Grade: B.

19.   A big issue with driverless cars won’t be the technology or safety record. Actually, there's still an issue with the technology but the insurance requirements and state laws remain an obstacle. Grade: B+. 

Now, we're looking forward to our next favorite part of the year: Making predictions for next year. Look for them to hit in mid-December.

Forbes' D'Vorkin's 11 Observations about the New Business

I don't always agree with what Lewis D'Vorkin writes in his column about the confluence of media and journalism in the digital age, but he's always worth reading. Sometimes his column is all #humblebrag about how smart Forbes is -- actually, based on a very unscientific survey, most of his columns are humblebrags. 

But his current column, "Inside Forbes: 11 Realities And Observations About The News Business, Like Them Or Not," is definitely worth reading for the following observations. (I'm not going to repeat all 11 items -- go read the column for yourself -- I'm just pointing out those I find most significant, and including some of my observations based on D'Vorkin's.)

1. Content needs to be mobile-friendly and easy to consume -- but much of it is not. One problem is that when you click on a website on your mobile, often you'll get a pop-up ad (Forbes does this to, by the way) that you can't exit from because the form factor doesn't let you scroll easily to find the X. That's annoying and a problem.
2. Ad-blocking software will get more popular -- a trend we didn't really address for 2016, but I tend to agree. The rise of ad-blocking will hurt online ad revenue that media properties can generate and depend on -- this is will lead to lower revenues, layoffs, and more media properties being shut down. Oh, and higher subscription fees for those media outlets that have a paywall.
3. Facebook is not just a social network. It is a media play, and other sites' traffic rates are declining because people check out the headlines and comments on Facebook without clicking through. Again, that will affect online ad rates.
4.  Lest you think Facebook is unstoppable, it is facing stiff competition from messaging apps like Kik, Snapchat and Whatsapp.
5. A lot of the media sites (and quasi-media/e-commerce sites like Refinery29) that are doing well are targeting women. That says something for companies looking to target customers.
6. Death of Page Views -- which even D'Vorkin admits has been a prediction that people have made for years now. But this time, it's different because there are new data and engagement possible via mobile.

Anyway check out his article.

2016 TrendReport -- Celebrating 15 Years of Trends

As we have for 15 years, we've compiled a list of trends to help our clients navigate the complex and ever-changing communications landscape and engage more effectively with traditional and social media and other influencers.

Here are the first set of trends for 2016:

1. The media will have a good year. Some media outlets still haven’t figured out how to build a sustainable business model from paywalls, online ads, and native advertising (aka clickbait). But 2016 will be a good year financially with billions to be spent on political ads from the candidates and their Super PACs. Unfortunately, the good times won’t continue into 2017. Some interesting media startups, trying to bring back long-form, thoughtful coverage of news will get attention from other media sites, but will find it hard to build a sustainable business in an era that favors quick celebrity news.
2. Drug pricing will get a lot of attention. Concern about out-of-control drug pricing began in 2015, when Martin Shkreli’s Turing Pharmaceuticals increased the price of a 62-year-old drug from $13.50 a pill to $750. Drug pricing will continue generate outrage and ongoing media and political attention in 2016. The impact of more scrutiny and the possibility of new pricing regulations may make it more difficult for pharma companies, including virtual biotechs, to raise funds to invest in drug discovery. This may cause investors to sell, and may burst the biotech bubble that industry followers have been predicting.
3. Tech turns into Towers of Babel. The concept behind the Internet of Things is that all devices will be networked-enabled and be able to communicate with each other to provide us with more convenience and data to help us make better decisions. The reality is that competing vendors and proprietary platforms have set up a tech version of the Tower of Babel, and that may be a real problem for companies looking to take advantage of IoT.
4. The rise of Artificial Intelligence. Don’t worry – despite concerns from Elon Musk and other tech influencers as well as the plot points in various Hollywood movies in 2015 – self-aware AI robots aren’t going to take over humans in 2015. But the ways we can use AI and machine learning will increase in 2016, helping us make better business, personal and health decisions and helping to address security concerns.
5. Whither unicorns and their business models? Unicorns – startups valued at upwards of $1 billion – were big in 2015. Expect coverage in 2016 that questions whether the unicorn bubble will burst. This will be true not just of privately held startups but also of publicly held companies (that represent the next stage of unicorn development) that fail to fully monetize their businesses. Twitter and Yahoo! – that means you and other social media platforms that fail to live up to financial expectations.

Look for more trends over the next week. And please let us know if you feel we got things right or wrong. 

Instead of updating TrendWatch once a year, we plan to look at trends twice in 2016. To subscribe to our TrendWatch newsletter, please email us at TrendWatch [at] birnbachcom.com.

Track Record of Our 2014 Predictions, Part II: Media & Social Media Trends

The first set of trends we'll review are: Media & Social Media Trends

• The media business has not stabilized.  Unfortunately we got this right. The New York Times just completed a buyout program of 100 newsroom employees that saw some prominent reporters like Stuart Elliott, a leading advertising columnist, and Bill Carter, author of several best sellers about the TV industry, leave the Grey Lady. Yet the Times claims that it still has approximately the same number of newsroom employees – just different mix of skills. Grade: A

• Journalists continue to use social media to announce and report – and broadcast reporters often recap the mood on Twitter. Reporting on what celebrities are Tweeting about a news incident is not, by our definition, news but we’re seeing a lot of that on broadcast news, even online – when, if I want to see what at celeb is Tweeting, I can go right to that celeb’s Twitter ID. Grade: A

• Traditional media will be burned in 2014 by jumping on a social media trending topic. This feels true even though we can’t point to a specific episode. Grade: B

• Native advertising will be big in 2014. Clickbait or Native Advertising is a big deal in 2014. A lot of people don’t seem to like it but it seems like it’s here to stay for the near future. Grade: A

• Marketing via flash mobs will seem so 2009. We were right about this.  Grade: A

• Instagram and Pinterest will remain important sources for recommendations and inspiration.

o  Neither site was dethroned in 2014 but Tinder may have captured the prize for generating the most buzz in 2014. Grade: A because we were right about the importance of Instagram and Pinterest as well as a growing awareness that there is a disparity between what people post and the lives we actually live, and that marketers need to make sure they develop easy-to-capture-and-share content, particularly with regard to video and still photography.

Stay tuned for a report on Marketing Trends, tomorrow.

7 Tips for Welcoming Reporters at Events

In this age of webinars and online events, it can be easy to forget that there are still a lot of in-person events that may require to check-in attendees, events like conferences, trade shows, galas, annual meetings and press conferences. Organizations remember to provide VIP guests with special care and handling but sometimes overlook the fact that media attendees also need special care when being checked in to an event.  

Based on more than two decades of working with reporters at press conferences, trade shows and other events, here are some best practices on how to handle media.

1.   Make sure the media qualifications/credentialing process is up-to-date. Ten years ago, to be considered a member of the media, one had to be either a staff reporter or editor or a freelance writer with a number of recent clips. These days, bloggers, podcasters and others are now considered media – and turning such people away could cause more problems via negative blog posts, tweets, etc.

2.   Maintain a separate, up-to-date media database. To be effective, media relations teams must research and maintain a database of their key reporters. Because reporters move around so often these days, media databases are valuable only if they are kept up-to-date. Often times, when reporters show up to register to attend a conference or event, they often provide updated information that is important to capture.

3.   Make it easy for reporters to register and check in. Consider offering online registration to speed onsite registration, and make sure to have pre-printed press badges, blank extras on hand for last-minute walk-ins, along with extra press kits (whether electronic, on flash drives or paper). Also consider having a separate registration area, with clear signage, and trained personnel to check reporters in – particularly reporters who, at the last minute, have decided to attend an event, which means their names may not be in the media database. Having a separate registration station means that reporters won’t get in the way of other VIP attendees such as speakers, sponsors and benefactors, board members, etc.

4.   Make it easy to capture walk-in reporters’ contact info. If reporters walk up to the same registration tables as the general public, their information may not get forwarded to the correct people. If a walk-in reporter’s information goes to a general volunteer, it may get lost, making it difficult to track media attendees and to follow-up with them afterwards. It is vital that media contact info gets forwarded to the media list for future events; instead, if contact info gets included in non-media databases, it will be impossible to find that data and to use it to the organization's advantage in the future.

5.   Train key staffers on how to work with reporters.  Untrained volunteers can actually damage relationships that an organization needs to maintain with reporters. For example, a couple of years ago, at a nonprofit's big event, a well meaning volunteer turned away a wire service reporter, who walked walked away in a huff, and never wrote about the organization.  On the other hand, trained volunteers and staffers would know how and be empowered to handle reporters, especially walk-ins, who otherwise might be turned away. Reporters are looking for a quick, efficient way to check in; they want to work with people who know how to work with them. Organizations can easily get a reputation for being unprofessional and hard to work with, and it’s important to take the steps to prevent your organization from being seen in that light.

6.   Identify locations, times, etc. that may offer better photo and story opportunities. Reporters often rely on the people registering to help them get a sense of where they can find good visuals, good stories, etc.  Make sure the content you've developed is shareable by social media, which includes using a hashtag for your event.Typically, general volunteers are focused on separate issues, and end up being a hindrance to reporters, which again could damage a relationship. Those trained in how to deal with the media, on the other hand, can enhance the trust necessary for strong relationships with reporters.

7.  Make sure to follow-up appropriately. While reporters usually don’t like “follow-up calls,” it’s different if you are able to offer photos, video, audio or other content, including interviews with people they weren't able to get. These calls are part of the process of helping reporters so consider asking their feedback in terms of what could be improved to help the media cover similar events in the future. For example, years ago, after a reporter complained about the sound quality at the back of the room where the TV cameras were positioned, I’ve always made sure to have technology in place that can enhance the audio feed.

Checking in reporters professionally and efficiently with the help of people trained and equipped to work with media can make a big difference in the relationship that organizations can build and maintain with those reporters. 

Let me know if you have other tips.