NYTimes Quickly Validates Our Prediction about Online Subscriptions

Last month, we issued our annual list of predictions, and posted more details on Feb. 2, Prediction #3: 2010 will be the year of online subscriptions. In today's New York Times, blog favorite Richard Perez-Pena wrote, "Some News Outlets Ready to Try Charging Online Readers."

It's nice to be validated -- so quickly.

Prediction #6: In-flight Internet Access Will Take Off

We will see more in-flight Internet access in 2010 – by 2011; it won’t even be something airlines tout as another reason to fly with them. Lufthansa rolled out new service: web surfing from 30,000 ft at $3/min. (What does it cost for tech support?) We can expect more conference calls and emails, and flying cross country no longer means being unable to respond to email. But battery life, additional sockets, and headphones will be boom businesses. The rise of business videoconference calls may increase the noise level, but not to the point of requiring talking and no-talking sections. As with other aspects of high-speed Internet access, though the Internet was established in the U.S. , count on international airlines to be ahead of domestic airlines in the type of services offered travelers. (Coffee, Tea or Internet Access?)

Prediction #5: The Top Dozen Business & Technology Stories in 2010 Will Include...

Of course, there will be stories that we have not identified that could generate significant coverage in 2010. But based on what we know now, here's a list of some of the stories reporters are sure to be working on this year (though not necessarily in this order):

1. The economy, including the recovery, the housing market, auto industry and the "new normal."
   
2. The freelancing of the US workforce -- or how we'll all be contractors or "perma-temps" in the future (especially given the jobless nature of the recovery).
3. Apple's iPad and the future of mobile computing and Apple's iPads vs. cellphones vs. Kindle and other e-readers.
4. Cloud computing and virtualization -- and yes, we know: they're not the same thing.
5. Health care reform.
6. Regulations.
7. Google vs. Apple vs. Microsoft and EMC vs. HP vs. Oracle.
8. 3-D TVs.
9. The state of the media, especially print media and advertising, online-only business models and online subscriptions.
10. Twitter's business model.
11. Location-based services and behavioral targeting by advertisers.
12. Online privacy as social media, behavioral targeting, location-based services and hackers combine to make it easy for others to access personal information.

Please note: This is not to exclude other topics we've included in our 2010 predictions.

Prediction #4: Mobile access will become increasingly important in 2010

Mobile access on hand-held devices like the iPad, netbooks, and increasingly powerful app phones, will become increasingly important in 2010. Content will need to be platform-agnostic, including audio and video, developed to meet the demands of several key platforms (and not just the iPad and iPhone). It's not just newspaper publishers who need to think cross-platform; it's all businesses, whether they're trying to reach consumers or B2B customers.

Prediction #3: 2010 will be the year of online subscriptions

2010 will be the year of online subscriptions as publishers of all kinds are finding out that advertising-only-supported sites are not self-sustaining. Charging user fees will allow these sites to survive. The implications include:

• Getting the price for online subscriptions will be important. After all, Newsday.com spent millions to redesign its site to put a pay-wall so it could charge readers $5.00 per week for access. In three months, Newsday.com generated only 35 subscribers. In contrast, the Wall St. Journal charges less than $100 for online access, with a discount for print subscribers.
• Publishers will consider a number of different plans, ranging from a pay-wall which enables only paid subscribers to access content; a metered system that allows readers to sample a few articles before being asked to subscribe; premium access, in which many articles are free but more important ones are available only to paid subscribers; and a membership model like public radio.
• One problem will be that, despite new subscription platforms from a variety of companies, from startups like Journalism Online (run by Steven Brill) to potential solutions from News Corp., Google, Microsoft and IBM. The challenge: if some publications don't charge, people will gravitate to those free services.
• Online-only news outlets won't be immune to layoffs. They will find out cutting out printing and distribution costs isn't enough to be self-sustaining because they've given up a number of substantial revenue streams, too.
• Online subscriptions won't limited to online news content. Twitter will unveil a business model that will likely be focused on charging fees to businesses that use Twitter. Rupert Murdoch, who is an ardent advocate of charging for online content, and owns a percentage of Hulu.com, will push Hulu.com to offer its video library on a per-viewing and on an unlimited basis. The same goes for some streaming music sites that currently are available for free.
• Apple's iPad may make it easier for print newspapers to charge subscription fees for online access. A lot of print media are designing new layouts to take advantage of future tablet offerings.
  

Prediction #2: Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010

Print newspapers and magazines will continue to struggle in 2010, and more will consider shutting down or transitioning to online-only, despite a (slower than we'd like) recovering economy. Although the number of magazines that shut down peaked in 2008, at 525, last year said goodbye to 360 magazines, including some major magazines like Gourmet, Metropolitan Home, Fortune Small Business. Last year also saw the deaths of major daily newspapers like the Rocky Mountain News and Seattle Post-Intelligencer as well as dozens of smaller papers. Large newspaper companies also announced bankruptcies last year, and we expect more closings in 2010. There is some good news: advertising pages may be increasing, according to Q1 projections, but only by 3 percent. However, print subscriptions continue to decline, and we expect newsroom layoffs to continue. The lesson: magazines from big publishing companies and significant circulations were not immune. Already, BusinessWeek SmallBiz announced (via postcard) that its Dec. 09/Jan. 10 issue was its last.

Prediction #1 for 2010: Traditional print journalism will continue to be important

Traditional print journalism will continue to be important. Even as the resources allocated to practicing it diminish -- fewer print newspapers, fewer reporters at those print papers, and less space in those papers -- yet traditional journalism conducted by newspapers will continue to drive content across the web. A 2009 study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism found though there are a lot more places to find news online, "of the stories that did contain new information, nearly all, 95 percent, came from old media -- most of them newspapers." In other words, most of the news articles found online basically picked up content from traditional sources, like newspapers, adding some commentary, but not new facts.