Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2014, Part IV: 9 Ongoing Tech Trends

 Last week, we posted top tech trends. Today, we're posting our list of top ongoing tech trends, representing trends that started before 2014.

1. The battle of tablets: After several years of breathless media coverage, the battle for tablet supremacy began when Apple, recognizing a vulnerability in its product line, launched the iPad Mini. Last year, we said it was a two-horse race between iPads and the Kindle Fire but expect a third player to gain traction – enter the Samsung Galaxy. This story has just begu 
2. Mobile everything will be important, including mobile search and mobile recommendations.  We’ll see the later perhaps playing out with shopper-specific recommendations while walking in retail stores – positioned as your own personal shopper. 
3. Crowdsourcing will continue to be a source of investors and a marketing boost. But that will primarily be for consumer-oriented products, not B2B technology. 
4. Virtual startups in otherwise unlikely fields. We’ve already seen the growth of virtual biotechs, and we see that continuing. We expect to see virtual enterprise application developers, who rely on outsourcer providers to do the heavy lifting. We don’t necessarily expect to see a lot of coverage of this trend, just that this is how startups will structure themselves. There’s a financial benefit to being virtual, including the hope for greater efficiencies but with that come other challenges, like credibility with customers and keeping every consultant, vendor and partner on the same page. 
5. 3D printers are still not yet ready for prime time. They will continue to make inroads, and to generate some coverage, but this is not (yet) a device for every household.  It’s too expensive and too complicated. 
6. Big data: The media will continue to cover big data as it continues to go mainstream…until big data is supplanted by the next data trend. 
7. Consumerization of enterprise apps: Mobile and BYOD forces require enterprise apps to be intuitive and easy to use. Ugly interfaces will no longer close sales. 
8. Second screens: Increasingly people watch television programs with their tablets, too, so they can comment real-time on what they’re watching. Helping customers express themselves and buy while they’re watching TV is going to be an important from a marketing perspective in the coming years.
9. Cognitive and context computing:  IBM Watson represents cognitive computing, which "combines natural language processing, machine learning, and hypothesis generation and evaluation," (according to IBM) and it didn't just beat Jeopardy champions in 2011. IBM Watson (and cognitive computing) is kicking off a new wave in computing. (Yes, we know, we've heard that before.)  Fortune did a cover story in Sept. 2013 reporting on IBM's Massive Bet on Watson. Contextual computing is not vastly different. Fast Company breathlessly reported that contextual computing -- including Google's latest search algorithm, will bring "Machines that understand you and everything you care about, anticipate your behavior and emotions, absorb your social graph, interpret your intentions, and make life, um, 'easier.'" We expect both cognitive and context computing will get more attention in 2014, even though we're in the early stages. Implications: IBM Watson's ability to provide students (and the rest of us) with almost instant access to historical data means that educators must rethink curriculum. Less important, now, are specific dates of historical events; what's now important is understanding the substantive issues surround the Treaty of Ghent, for example -- issues that sometimes get scant attention in the need to emphasize dates. We see that happening in business, too.

Let us know if you agree or disagree. Check back tomorrow for additional predictions or click here for Part I, Part II or Part III.

2012 Trends Report Card, Part VI

Here's Part VI of our report card of how we did with our 2012 predictions. 

Tech Trends

1.     Converging technology, like the “paperless office,” won’t live up to its hype. The real story with converging media is BYOD – Bring Your Own Device to the office. We correctly identified BYOD as a trend but overstated problems with multiple devices as a topic of coverage. Grade: B-.

2.     Data will be bigger in 2012. Big Data did generate a lot of coverage, too many to cite. But we’ll one New York Times article: "The Age of Big Data," which says it all. Grade: A.

3.     Ongoing Tech Trends we expect to continue from 2011:

·         Cloud computing: This trend started in 2010 but continues to go mainstream. Grade: A but we admit this was a gimme.

·         The battle of tablets: Just because the first battle went in Apple's direction does not mean that wannabe iPad Killers have given up the fight. Competitors still want to get into the action and capture some of the marketshare. From the media's perspective, it's a two-horse race between the Kindle Fire and iPad. We expect a third option to gain some traction, but the iPad will continue to dominate. Grade: A.

·         The three most important tech trends will be mobile, mobile, mobile. Unless the three most important trends are social, social, social. For example, enterprise technology now needs not only to have an intuitive interface, it also must be accessible on iPads. Grade: A. 

·         Gaming is not just for kids. Gaming will continue to be integrated into business and training apps to keep people engaged and entertained. Grade: B because while the trend continued it did not generate the kind of media attention we expected.

We'll issue our last set of grades in tomorrow's post.

In the meantime, let us know if you have any questions or comments.

2011 Trends Report Card, Part III

Here's the final part of our report card:

• The rules for social media will continue to evolve -- rapidly. Our point: Companies are still learning how to navigate social media, which gives newbies the opportunity to jump in, and to learn from what others are doing well as well as from mistakes others have made. One challenge remains: staying ahead of the range of sites, which can rise and fall in popularity...like the once dominant Friendster. Google-Plus launched in 2011 after some high profile social media failures on Google's part, but which generated 65 million users in a few months. So Google-Plus has quickly become a site that businesses should consider as part of their social media strategy. It's not to late to sign up, but it does mean another site to pay attention to, in addition to Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc.
• There weren't media stories directly about this but in 2011, companies were judged by how quickly they respond to social media situations.  For example, when Kenneth Cole posted an offensive tweet about protests in Cairo during the Arab Spring, it took him six hours to respond to criticisms.  The story became focused on the amount of time it took Cole to respond. Overall: A.
• We said the press release would not die in 2011, and we feel that it didn't, even as some companies used Twitter to issue news.  We feel that the press release will continue to be relevant in 2012.
• Traditional media did move to a stable, if fragile, footing in 2011, as we predicted. 
• While there were more apps designed to allow viewers to interact with other viewers while watching TV, these apps are more for avid fans and did not exactly become common. Perhaps that's because it's an uncomfortable combination of lean-back activities like watching TV and lean-forward activities like using a computer. (Expect to hear a lot of people talk about lean-back/lean-forward activities in 2012.) We overstated this one. Grade: B-.
•  Hybrid, mashup and curation were used a lot in 2011, but they were not the most overused words. According to Lake Superior State University, the list of most overused words include: Amazing, Occupy, baby bump and man cave. I really dislike the last two. Grade: B.
• We were right about some of the top stories -- the economy, health care, politics, and the battle among Google vs. Apple, etc. (Check out an excellent Fast Company cover story that further validates this prediction: The Great Tech War Of 2012: Apple, Facebook, Google, and Amazon battle for the future of the innovation economy.)  We were wrong about 3D TVs -- not much media interest when there did not seem to be much consumer interest in the technology.Oprah's network, OWN, got some coverage, but was not a major story -- just as it did not turn into a major cable network. Yet. (Don't bet against Oprah.) Overall grade: B+.

We'll publish more of our annual predictions tomorrow. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V.

2011 Trends Report Card, Part II

Here are more grades on some of the trends we predicted for 2011.
 
2011: The year of the app-based media subscriptions. Pricing for app-based subscriptions were a big issue for publishers, but many now produce free apps that enable either per-issue (for a fee) access or free access for print subscribers. Some publishers have not figured things out, charging more on a per-electronic copy than for a per-print copy. Slowly more subscriptions are available on the iPad's Newsstand, which is great in that it aggregates a number of publications in one place, but not so good for publishers that once could expect their apps to appear on the screen by itself. Overall: B since this did not get much media or social media attention.

Converging media continues to converge.We predicted blurred lines among traditional media as newspapers reporters post video versions of their text stories; TV reporters post text versions of the video staandups, etc. That trend will continue in 2012 and beyond. Overall: A.

We'll publish more of our annual report on Monday. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V.

2011 Trends Report Card, Part I

Before we issue our annual list of trends and predictions of media and social media issues next week, we think will be relevant in 2012, here's our annual report card of how we did with our 2011 predictions.

The Battle between the iPad & the iPad Killers
The battle we predicted between the iPad and the "iPad Killers" did not turn out to be much of a battle, as most of the wannabe iPad Killers were quickly considered misfires. HP's TouchPad was launched and taken off the market within a matter of weeks (writing off $3.3 billion to “the wind down of HP’s WebOS device business," which was the platform for the TouchPad). RIM's PlayBook launched without some key software apps.

We don't think we were wrong in calling it a big trend, though.  In an article, "Tech 2011: Biggest News Stories of the Year" published in Dec. 30, 2011, Wired included three tablet-related stories, including "Non-Apple Tablets Proliferate -- But No One Seems to Care."  Wired nominated two other tablet-related news events as top stories:

• HP Kills TouchPad -- Just Months After Its Release
• Kindle Fire Gives Tablet Hope to Cash-Strapped Common Folk

We were right in predicting that the iPad2 would continue to dominate the market, that a lot of media coverage would be about our app-enabled culture, and that there would  be a lot of discussion about iOS vs. Android. There were not as many stories as we expected for the PC market. We did not predict the Kindle Fire, which generated huge amount of coverage (overshadowing Barnes & Noble's equivalent Nook) as the media continued its attempt to anoint an iPad killer. Overall, an A-. As for 2012, we expect that the soon-to-be-disclosed (in a bar, perhaps) iPad 3 will be popular, and will continue to dominate the market. The Kindle Fire will do well, but a re-priced iPad 2 will outsell the Fire. Some Android tablets will continue to improve and to sell units, but will mostly eat iPad's dust.

We'll publish more of our annual report tomorrow. In the meantime, you can check out all our 2011 predictions here: Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV and Part V.

Amazon Validates Our Prediction about 2011: The battle between iPad and the iPad Killers

With the announcement last week of the Kindle Fire, its color e-reader based on the Android platform, Amazon has validated our prediction that an important trend/story this year would be the battle between the iPad and the iPad Killers. (Check out: Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I.)

In the wake of perceived and actual failures like RIM's PlayBook and H-P's TouchPad, the iPad competitors have not lived up to the "killer" designation. Which explains some of the interest in the Kindle Fire as perhaps being a good challenger to the iPad. 

Is the Kindle Fire an iPad killer? Probably not in version 1.0, but it almost doesn't matter. From a media perspective, the Kindle Fire breathes new life into the iPad vs. competition story.

Mid-Year Trend Update

It's a bit early for our annual report card on our trends and predictions, but I wanted to take a look at one prediction: The battle between the iPad and the iPad Killers, the race for apps and the impact of tablet computing will be a main theme (you can find an extended discussion about this here).

We were right about the battle of iPad and iPad Killers -- every new tablet reviewed this year has been reviewed in terms of the iPad. The conclusion: a lot of good tries, a lot of misses, and no other tablet has killed off the iPad 2.


But there's one aspect to the iPad vs. iPad Killers that we missed. When it became clear that no other tablet would dethrone the iPad, the media shifted to another story angle: the iPhone vs. the iPhone Killer -- by which I mean, of course, Android. One of the first of these articles appeared in April's Wired, How the Android Ecosystem Threatens the iPhone. 

Other articles have appeared in other major outlets, including Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

It's a microtrend we overlooked, but an interesting lesson for those of us who pitch the media. The point is that the media often look for a backlash story, even if it's not a direct backlash. Even if the target is Apple, which generally gets very positive coverage.

New York Times Validates Another of Our Predictions

In its article, "Netbooks Lose Status as Tablets Like the iPad Rise" (print headline, "From Rising Star to Wallflower, the Netbook Tells a Tale") by Steve Lohr, the New York Times validated another of our predictions, that there were be a lot of stories about the battle of the tablets (the iPad vs. the iPad killers) and one theme would be:

Lots of stories about the impact of tablets on the PC market. (Anyone remember netbooks?)

Check out Birnbach Communications' Top Predictions for 2011, Part I from Jan. 10th for the original prediction.

But check out Lohr's article. It provides interesting insights into lessons from the rise and fall of the netbook. Could this happen to the the iPad?

Is the Future of News to be Found in Apps?

A lot of publishers are hoping that tablets, principally the iPad, will help save them by serving as a platform for getting users to pay for access to content.

But some news apps are doing an end run around publishers to make it easier for users to get the content they want. Some of them pick up and package newspapers' own RSS feeds.

Check out "Read All About It as News Apps Arrive," which describes a couple of news apps.

Also, check out "In the App Economy, Newspapers Are Apps" by Maya Baratz on HuffPost.